1k -> 10k (Day 2)

alub15 · 05-10-10, 09:49 AM

how bout 3 team parlays eh?

Grind-It-Out · 05-10-10, 09:52 AM

Originally posted by alub15

how bout 3 team parlays eh?

The middle ground, I like it

These are the only two I liked on the board today so today was going to be a 2-teamer no matter what, but I'll count that as one vote for 3 going forward.

alub15 · 05-10-10, 09:55 AM

just a question, i kno hanson is doing okay for the braves but kenrick has an era of 5.87

Grind-It-Out · 05-10-10, 09:57 AM

Yeah, but Smith is even worse. Plus the Phils bats are heating up again. Plus Gonzalez and Tulowhatever are out for the Rox.

KATCHASE · 05-10-10, 10:00 AM

I think that psychologically it's better to win more often at first. Later, when the system gets rolling and the bankroll gets padded up a bit, people will have more confidence parlaying more than 2 or 3 teams.

Good luck today!!!

alub15 · 05-10-10, 10:01 AM

what about garza pitching for the rays today, they got shut out yesterday and garza is 5-1 with a 2.09 era

Brian891 · 05-10-10, 10:03 AM

Hi G-I-O. I am a newb who finds your thread intriguing and will be folllowing along. My vote is that u mix up the size of the parlays based on how strong your leans are towards the games, which seems like how u have been picking. Placed my bet on ATL and PHI. Good luck!

Grind-It-Out · 05-10-10, 10:05 AM

Originally posted by KATCHASE

I think that psychologically it's better to win more often at first. Later, when the system gets rolling and the bankroll gets padded up a bit, people will have more confidence parlaying more than 2 or 3 teams.

Good luck today!!!

Makes perfect sense. That would probably be more intriguing for me if I was considering tailing someone. Thanks.

runnershane14 · 05-10-10, 10:07 AM

good luck to you

Grind-It-Out · 05-10-10, 10:14 AM

Originally posted by alub15

what about garza pitching for the rays today, they got shut out yesterday and garza is 5-1 with a 2.09 era

Are you saying that them getting shutout yesterday is a positive thing? I don't necessarily believe in the idea of a team "being due." But if I did, then I would say the Angels are due for a 15 run game, lol.

whitdawg · 05-10-10, 12:24 PM

Are you rapping all your money up at once or starting a 3 spot and leaving it open. I will never pay juice again!!!!! I play on a site my books people started because they are old and dont want to sit in the back of wherever and clean their dentures. Its nice I pick on line but pay or get paid in person. I have payed him 4 times since the superbowl. But I only gave him cash once I keep a kitty, I was down to like 1100 on my books (he gives limits, mine was 3500). I needed more than one big hit and I just found out that you could leave 2 spots open on a 3 teamer. Now I know why bookies dont **** with shit and let the computer do it. So I have 1100 dollars left. I take Jazz 3 times on the money line + 210 at Portland with 2 open spots for 90 a piece. I also took the blazers since they were like -245 I bet 20 more on them 110 3 times 2 open spots. Split the rest of my money 6 ways for 3 bets on Jazz and 3 on the blazers. Jazz Win -I have 6 open parleys with 2 spots left. Go with the Canucks -1.5 +250 at home with 2 jazz bets 1 90 dollars and 1 82 dollars. Take the kings +.5 -130 twice, one bet 90$ one bet 82$. Last of the 2nd round picks Kings on +170 with 90 bet and 82 on Canucks -.5 +155line with cavs 100 dollar bet. Use that last 63 dollar under play with Canucks -.5 +145. Canucks are winning 3-0 after 1 period and win 4-1 with an empty netter with 22 seconds left. Well Cannucks win by 3 so I still have 3 3 teamers if the kings would have won I would have 3 3 teamers. Ok I now have 3 3 teamers and they need 1 more game to win. I take one bet with Jazz +210, Canucks +250 and I looking at Golden State +250 hosting Phoenix -340. Take Phoenix -340 twice to close it out and . Finish out the the 90 dollar bets with +250 on Golden St. The Warriors get crazy hot 4th qtr and win. No ot but the 2 60 dollar bets win and payed 10 more than if I would have lost with them because they cost 120 and the cavs cost 100. It cost 1080 and the parley won 2480. But I knew I wouldnt have a total loss going 1 step at a time. If I dropped a dime on a straight bet I could have been broke. This works great if you load up on the you like on that 3rd play. All ways cover your ass. Last night I won 1400 on a 63 dollar bet because I was sure a -450 team was a shoe in and got lucky pushin that $63 +365, then +210 and closed it on red sox -1.5 +180. Got Paid 2400 for 63 bucks. I just run like 8 $80 bets on yes 1st inning score and 8 $90 on no in the 1st at 7. If we get am soccer or a afternoon game Ill use those.

ebbearsfb1 · 05-10-10, 01:16 PM

i would stick to 2 teamers and straight bets

today i got

phillies/braves parlay risk 40 to win 95

Grind-It-Out · 05-10-10, 01:26 PM

Originally posted by whitdawg

Are you rapping all your money up at once or starting a 3 spot and leaving it open. I will never pay juice again!!!!! I play on a site my books people started because they are old and dont want to sit in the back of wherever and clean their dentures. Its nice I pick on line but pay or get paid in person. I have payed him 4 times since the superbowl. But I only gave him cash once I keep a kitty, I was down to like 1100 on my books (he gives limits, mine was 3500). I needed more than one big hit and I just found out that you could leave 2 spots open on a 3 teamer. Now I know why bookies dont **** with shit and let the computer do it. So I have 1100 dollars left. I take Jazz 3 times on the money line + 210 at Portland with 2 open spots for 90 a piece. I also took the blazers since they were like -245 I bet 20 more on them 110 3 times 2 open spots. Split the rest of my money 6 ways for 3 bets on Jazz and 3 on the blazers. Jazz Win -I have 6 open parleys with 2 spots left. Go with the Canucks -1.5 +250 at home with 2 jazz bets 1 90 dollars and 1 82 dollars. Take the kings +.5 -130 twice, one bet 90$ one bet 82$. Last of the 2nd round picks Kings on +170 with 90 bet and 82 on Canucks -.5 +155line with cavs 100 dollar bet. Use that last 63 dollar under play with Canucks -.5 +145. Canucks are winning 3-0 after 1 period and win 4-1 with an empty netter with 22 seconds left. Well Cannucks win by 3 so I still have 3 3 teamers if the kings would have won I would have 3 3 teamers. Ok I now have 3 3 teamers and they need 1 more game to win. I take one bet with Jazz +210, Canucks +250 and I looking at Golden State +250 hosting Phoenix -340. Take Phoenix -340 twice to close it out and . Finish out the the 90 dollar bets with +250 on Golden St. The Warriors get crazy hot 4th qtr and win. No ot but the 2 60 dollar bets win and payed 10 more than if I would have lost with them because they cost 120 and the cavs cost 100. It cost 1080 and the parley won 2480. But I knew I wouldnt have a total loss going 1 step at a time. If I dropped a dime on a straight bet I could have been broke. This works great if you load up on the you like on that 3rd play. All ways cover your ass. Last night I won 1400 on a 63 dollar bet because I was sure a -450 team was a shoe in and got lucky pushin that $63 +365, then +210 and closed it on red sox -1.5 +180. Got Paid 2400 for 63 bucks. I just run like 8 $80 bets on yes 1st inning score and 8 $90 on no in the 1st at 7. If we get am soccer or a afternoon game Ill use those.

wtf was that?

Grind-It-Out · 05-10-10, 01:27 PM

Originally posted by ebbearsfb1

i would stick to 2 teamers and straight bets

today i got

phillies/braves parlay risk 40 to win 95

I'm not going to force 3 and 4 teamers, but if I LOVE 4 bets then I have no problem with it. Sure, variance will be a bitch, but there's a long way to go.

Holdin Aces · 05-10-10, 01:47 PM

Originally posted by Grind-It-Out

wtf was that?

Yeah I got lost half way through but it seems to be like something thats working for you. Goodluck everyone.

kidk · 05-10-10, 01:51 PM

4 teamers are better

Grind-It-Out · 05-10-10, 01:56 PM

Originally posted by kidk

4 teamers are better

Agreed. I couldn't find 4 I liked today though.

Brian891 · 05-10-10, 11:17 PM

Sure another thread will open later, but great call on phils and braves!!! Looking forward to next parlay!

Grind-It-Out · 05-10-10, 11:22 PM

Today's Bet: Parlay PHILADELPHIA -104 and ATLANTA -131
Today's Bet Amount: $39.66 to win $97.52
Result: +$97.52
Recap After Day 2

Starting Bankroll: $1,000
Current Bankroll: $1,078.51
Goal Bankroll: $10,000
Days Remaining: 234

I may be slightly restructuring this tomorrow after doing a lot of studying today on maximizing utility rather than maximizing profit.

crazymadmike911 · 05-10-10, 11:22 PM

i agree , its better to start out with a few 2 game parlays to increase bank

Grind-It-Out · 05-10-10, 11:23 PM

Originally posted by Brian891

Sure another thread will open later, but great call on phils and braves!!! Looking forward to next parlay!

Thanks Brian. Not exactly what I expected out of the Phils, but they got it done late and a win is a win.

madden · 05-10-10, 11:34 PM

Good luck, my friend. Keep up with good picks and your goal should be $1.000.000,00!

madden · 05-10-10, 11:45 PM

By the way, your math is very good, but your expectations will be better if you follow this simple formula:

{ [100 - (100-e)] - o} = x/1,5

where 'e' is your expectation for the game (say 55% Phillies ML)
'o' is the odds provided by the house (say, 50% -> which is -100)
and 'x' is the % of your bankroll you'll bet

simply saying, your losses/wins will be optimized if you bet 1,75% of your bankroll for every % difference between your expectations and the odds you get (actually the % is a bit higher than 1,75%, but I adjusted that seeing how conservative you seem to be when betting)

Hopes on!

Grind-It-Out · 05-10-10, 11:53 PM

Thanks for the insight Madden. Starting tomorrow I will actually be using the compound interest formula to determine the percent of my bankroll that I need to win. I will then be using the Kelly Criterion (with whatever the Kelly multiplier happens to be that day) to determine the bet sizes I need to make to expect that win amount.

kingofmonash · 05-11-10, 02:42 AM

well done grind

SolidDala · 05-11-10, 05:15 AM

{ [100 - (100-e)] - o} = x/1,5

... This is the same as { e - o} = x/1,5 so why the extra data madden, just curious thats all