Braves vs. Nationals

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  • DrStale
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 12-07-08
    • 9692

    #1
    Braves vs. Nationals
    Nationals +101 at BetPhoenix right now.

    Livan has been lights out to begin the season, sporting a 0.87 era.
    Kawakami has been rocked to the tune of an 0-4 record and era of 5.48

    The Braves are 3-10 on the road.

    Nationals are 13-12
    Braves are 11-14

    What am I missing?
    Originally posted by Dark Horse
    If with religion you mean belief system, your belief system is your religion. Again, it matters not what it is. You believe in it, you are loyal to it, would defend it, and yet have no proof of it, other than that, at one point or another, you chose to believe in it. Self-hypnosis. What if there were a snapping of fingers that broke the hypnosis?
  • mrg24
    SBR Sharp
    • 03-07-10
    • 307

    #2
    Braves are due for a loss. Nats look great tomorrow.

    GL !!!
    Comment
    • DrStale
      SBR Hall of Famer
      • 12-07-08
      • 9692

      #3
      Originally posted by mrg24
      Braves are due for a loss. Nats look great tomorrow.

      GL !!!
      They had a nice run at home but they've still lost 7 in a row on the road. I just don't see how they're supposed to turn it around tomorrow with Kawakami who had admitted to "just getting worse" on the mound. Granted Hernandez isn't going to keep up this pace but he's still throwing the ball really well.
      Originally posted by Dark Horse
      If with religion you mean belief system, your belief system is your religion. Again, it matters not what it is. You believe in it, you are loyal to it, would defend it, and yet have no proof of it, other than that, at one point or another, you chose to believe in it. Self-hypnosis. What if there were a snapping of fingers that broke the hypnosis?
      Comment
      • mrg24
        SBR Sharp
        • 03-07-10
        • 307

        #4
        Originally posted by DrStale
        They had a nice run at home but they've still lost 7 in a row on the road. I just don't see how they're supposed to turn it around tomorrow with Kawakami who had admitted to "just getting worse" on the mound. Granted Hernandez isn't going to keep up this pace but he's still throwing the ball really well.


        Yeh they played great past couple of games but your right they had a losing streak before that so I'm not going to let them fool me with their current winning ways cuz they did have tough time on road before coming home and they had pretty hard time scoring runs. Kawakami is 1-1 in last 3 starts against Nats with 5.28 ERA.

        I think Braves are due for a loss here. Nats are not bad they are playing great well better then people's expectations.
        Comment
        • mrg24
          SBR Sharp
          • 03-07-10
          • 307

          #5
          But then again remember it's baseball anything can happen. I personally find baseball the hardest sport to bet on. 9 Innings and first half a good team is leading and then bullpen comes up and blows everything up the next thing you know is that Baltimore sweeps Boston. So yeah anything can happened.

          GL
          Comment
          • LLXC
            SBR Hall of Famer
            • 12-10-06
            • 8972

            #6
            I took the Nationals for the series. =|
            Comment
            • bass7
              SBR High Roller
              • 04-17-10
              • 113

              #7
              Originally posted by mrg24
              But then again remember it's baseball anything can happen. I personally find baseball the hardest sport to bet on. 9 Innings and first half a good team is leading and then bullpen comes up and blows everything up the next thing you know is that Baltimore sweeps Boston. So yeah anything can happened.

              GL
              you could take the 5 inning line?

              also like the nats here
              Comment
              • PAULYPOKER
                BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                • 12-06-08
                • 36581

                #8
                Oh shit Hey Doc you don't have a curse over you do ya cause This is one of my (Armored Truck plays) tomorrow and ya better not curse it.................

                Just kiddin I think...............
                Comment
                • DrStale
                  SBR Hall of Famer
                  • 12-07-08
                  • 9692

                  #9
                  No specific curse that im aware of Pauly, though every time a play jumps out at me this much it usually isn't a good sign. We'll find out tomorrow.
                  Originally posted by Dark Horse
                  If with religion you mean belief system, your belief system is your religion. Again, it matters not what it is. You believe in it, you are loyal to it, would defend it, and yet have no proof of it, other than that, at one point or another, you chose to believe in it. Self-hypnosis. What if there were a snapping of fingers that broke the hypnosis?
                  Comment
                  • Dukebluejms
                    SBR MVP
                    • 10-21-09
                    • 1633

                    #10
                    I wouldn't go crazy with the Nationals. I realize they have been a good story so far and Livan has been great, but if you are going to use the logic that the Braves are due for a loss, shouldn't you say Livan is due for a bad outing? He is pitching like a Cy-Young candidate, which can't last forever. Not to mention the Braves hitters are starting to come around, mainly Cabrera, Glaus, and Heyward is hot again. Kawakami has not pitched as bad as his record may indicate either. I like the Braves here, may even go RL.
                    Comment
                    • THEGREAT30
                      SBR Hall of Famer
                      • 10-04-08
                      • 8970

                      #11
                      Braves don't fair well against the Nationals traditionally either,good day
                      Comment
                      • DrStale
                        SBR Hall of Famer
                        • 12-07-08
                        • 9692

                        #12
                        Originally posted by Dukebluejms
                        I wouldn't go crazy with the Nationals. I realize they have been a good story so far and Livan has been great, but if you are going to use the logic that the Braves are due for a loss, shouldn't you say Livan is due for a bad outing? He is pitching like a Cy-Young candidate, which can't last forever. Not to mention the Braves hitters are starting to come around, mainly Cabrera, Glaus, and Heyward is hot again. Kawakami has not pitched as bad as his record may indicate either. I like the Braves here, may even go RL.
                        I never said Braves were due for a loss. They've lost 7 straight on the road, if anything they're probably "due" for a win, but that' s a very poor betting strategy. Livan certainly isn't going to be what he has been up until now, but I don't see a reason to jump off the train until it shows at least some signs of slowing.

                        Kawakami on his pitching woes:

                        "Every start has not been solid, and today it was just worse," Kawakami said through an interpreter. "It's pretty disappointing."

                        The guy hasn't won a game since August and doesn't seem to believe in himself, so why should I believe in him?
                        Originally posted by Dark Horse
                        If with religion you mean belief system, your belief system is your religion. Again, it matters not what it is. You believe in it, you are loyal to it, would defend it, and yet have no proof of it, other than that, at one point or another, you chose to believe in it. Self-hypnosis. What if there were a snapping of fingers that broke the hypnosis?
                        Comment
                        • Dukebluejms
                          SBR MVP
                          • 10-21-09
                          • 1633

                          #13
                          Originally posted by DrStale
                          I never said Braves were due for a loss. They've lost 7 straight on the road, if anything they're probably "due" for a win, but that' s a very poor betting strategy. Livan certainly isn't going to be what he has been up until now, but I don't see a reason to jump off the train until it shows at least some signs of slowing. Kawakami on his pitching woes: "Every start has not been solid, and today it was just worse," Kawakami said through an interpreter. "It's pretty disappointing." The guy hasn't won a game since August and doesn't seem to believe in himself, so why should I believe in him?
                          The comment on the Braves being due for a loss was not directed towards you, but at mrg. As for Kawakami, he has been screwed by lack of run support. The Braves have scored 5 runs in his 4 starts combined. I know it may be hard to believe, but his last start was an anomoly. Kawakami may have a 7-12 record last year, but he had a 3.86 ERA. And in that winless span you speak of can be attributed to the fact that he spent most of his time in the pen in the latter half of the season. I am not saying you should bank on Kawakami, but I feel he will give a solid outing (5-6 innings, 2-3 runs allowed). The Braves pen has been lights out (2.50 ERA), and Livan has a career 6.00 ERA vs. the Braves. Also, many of the Braves hitters have had a lot of success vs Hernandez: Prado (4 for 7 - .571 avg), Chipper (7 for 21 - .333 avg), McCann (4 for 13 - .308 avg with 1 HR), Escobar (5 for 10 - .500 avg).
                          Comment
                          • NBAStats
                            SBR Wise Guy
                            • 01-18-10
                            • 665

                            #14
                            Originally posted by DrStale
                            Nationals +101 at BetPhoenix right now.

                            Livan has been lights out to begin the season, sporting a 0.87 era.
                            Kawakami has been rocked to the tune of an 0-4 record and era of 5.48

                            The Braves are 3-10 on the road.

                            Nationals are 13-12
                            Braves are 11-14

                            What am I missing?
                            Things you are missing

                            a) The Nats run differential is -20, and the Braves run differential is -3
                            b) Most are assuming the Nats have exceeded expectations so far, and the Braves have underachieved
                            c) Even though Livan has far superior numbers so far, I would still choose Kawakami over him (as would many others), but not by a whole lot.
                            Comment
                            • sweethook
                              SBR Posting Legend
                              • 11-21-07
                              • 12667

                              #15
                              i didnt think atlanta would be this bad
                              Comment
                              • Grind House
                                SBR MVP
                                • 01-01-10
                                • 1405

                                #16
                                Chipper Jones is killing us. Cox needs to drop his ass in the line up and move Glaus up. Heyward is 5 feet from slapping a HR everytime he's up to the plate.
                                Comment
                                • THE PROFIT
                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                  • 11-27-09
                                  • 17701

                                  #17
                                  ATL dropped 9 straight I think before sweeping at home. I'm leaning braves here, RLM also. If anything they're due to get back to winning ways, not a loss. They looked great last series
                                  Comment
                                  • PAULYPOKER
                                    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                    • 12-06-08
                                    • 36581

                                    #18
                                    Originally posted by THE PROFIT
                                    ATL dropped 9 straight I think before sweeping at home. I'm leaning braves here, RLM also. If anything they're due to get back to winning ways, not a loss. They looked great last series
                                    Hey PRO not tonight with that fukked up of a mess they call a pitcher,, they'll win on Wednesday fo sure
                                    Comment
                                    • BillAccpetor
                                      SBR Wise Guy
                                      • 02-07-09
                                      • 790

                                      #19
                                      Good price for the Nationals...
                                      Comment
                                      • Carseller4
                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                        • 10-22-09
                                        • 19627

                                        #20
                                        Very tough pick....but i went with the Nationals today.
                                        Comment
                                        • masse
                                          SBR Rookie
                                          • 04-13-10
                                          • 28

                                          #21
                                          really a toss up
                                          Comment
                                          • gryfyn1
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 03-30-10
                                            • 3285

                                            #22
                                            Livan's peripherals are terrifying .. he's K just 2.9/9 and BB 2.3/9 - he's been amazingly lucky with batted balls just not falling in for opposing hitter (180 BaBip) or finding the seats (4.0% HR/FB) and hiting with RISP (99.2 LOB%)


                                            All that coupled with the fact he's not really doing anything different with his pitch selection/Speeds, and, if anything, players are making more contact on hits pitches mean that at some point its going to get very ugly for Livan.

                                            Add to that he Braves offese finally looked good this weekend, and the Nats have been bad ( 7 H/9; 3 R/G)

                                            All that adds up to too much thinking and stat looking on my part which makes me scared to pick a side ... Just sayin'
                                            Comment
                                            • Manaconda
                                              SBR Wise Guy
                                              • 03-22-10
                                              • 818

                                              #23
                                              go nats!
                                              Comment
                                              • Bones402
                                                SBR Wise Guy
                                                • 02-02-10
                                                • 697

                                                #24
                                                I will pass on this one just cuz im a Braves fan ha
                                                Comment
                                                • thebertshow
                                                  SBR Wise Guy
                                                  • 08-30-07
                                                  • 645

                                                  #25
                                                  Braves are the play
                                                  Comment
                                                  • mvp123
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 07-24-06
                                                    • 1736

                                                    #26
                                                    im on the braves on the sbr sportsbook but not sure about making a real money bet on this game , prolly pass
                                                    Comment
                                                    • mp5070
                                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                                      • 09-13-08
                                                      • 5446

                                                      #27
                                                      Braves is the PLAY...TYPICAL START FOR LIVAN....BUT ALWAYS COOLS DOWN BIG TIME....

                                                      Originally posted by THEGREAT30
                                                      Braves don't fair well against the Nationals traditionally either,good day
                                                      Livan is 5-15 5.27ERA AGAINST THE BRAVES....THE ABOVE STATEMENT MEANS NOTHING
                                                      Comment
                                                      • mp5070
                                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                                        • 09-13-08
                                                        • 5446

                                                        #28
                                                        Originally posted by mvp123
                                                        im on the braves on the sbr sportsbook but not sure about making a real money bet on this game , prolly pass
                                                        MVP,

                                                        Dont Hate Me, if the BRAVES LOSE THE GAME.....

                                                        This is the first positive post you made in this forum...CONGRATS
                                                        Comment
                                                        • Wilforth
                                                          Restricted User
                                                          • 05-10-08
                                                          • 16309

                                                          #29
                                                          Originally posted by mp5070
                                                          Braves is the PLAY...TYPICAL START FOR LIVAN....BUT ALWAYS COOLS DOWN BIG TIME....



                                                          Livan is 5-15 5.27ERA AGAINST THE BRAVES....THE ABOVE STATEMENT MEANS NOTHING
                                                          And Nats are 1-6 in Livan's L7 home starts vs. Braves!
                                                          Comment
                                                          • csknight3
                                                            SBR Wise Guy
                                                            • 03-19-10
                                                            • 629

                                                            #30
                                                            Nats have the better value, are at home, and have proven to be a better team so far this season. I feel they are the better choice here. Atlanta is always overrated by Vegas where as the nationals are always underrated. BOL to all.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • Doc JS
                                                              SBR Hall of Famer
                                                              • 09-15-06
                                                              • 6885

                                                              #31
                                                              I just cant back Kawakami...
                                                              Comment
                                                              • gryfyn1
                                                                SBR MVP
                                                                • 03-30-10
                                                                • 3285

                                                                #32
                                                                Originally posted by csknight3
                                                                and have proven to be a better team so far this season
                                                                What are you basing this fact? Other than raw W/L all signs point to the Braves being better.

                                                                The Braves have a better run differential and have played a better schedule, The Braves were projected to be a better team by a long shot and theres little reason to think thats any different one month into the season.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • starfire
                                                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                                                  • 03-24-10
                                                                  • 17045

                                                                  #33
                                                                  Atl is a no brainer, so take the Nats.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • BGray14
                                                                    Restricted User
                                                                    • 06-23-09
                                                                    • 158

                                                                    #34
                                                                    Originally posted by bass7
                                                                    you could take the 5 inning line?

                                                                    also like the nats here
                                                                    exactly what i did, 1st five innings under 5
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • pokerpro44
                                                                      SBR MVP
                                                                      • 08-20-07
                                                                      • 3138

                                                                      #35
                                                                      on the under.
                                                                      Comment
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