San Fransisco Treat + IMHO

[feldzpar]

I think I might be caught in a trap here. Snagged the line yesterday when it came out at -130 on BM. Sure did rise, on most sites about 20 points....Now I watch it drop and there are a vast majority of wagers on the Giants somewhere around 80%. The reverse LM begins.

Not feeling so good anymore.


On a side note that Yanks line yesterday was a mind game. I ended up winning the bet and took Yanks RL about an hour before first pitch, but Jesus I put too much thought into that one. That line sank 50 points on some books. I believe now more than ever books are trying to punish "Sharp-Squares"...gamblers who think they know whats up but really only know enough to be dangerous to themselves.

I saw so many threads on how now that the line dropped Balti was the play, how Yanks are a trap and then making wagers on that notion alone and ignoring the most fundamental part of sports betting...the better team probably wins.

[teecee]

The reason I played Baltimore was b/c Matusz had pitched very well to that point, and Burnett hadn't fared as well. Line movement did not play into that wager. I thought Baltimore had a shot to win, and at that price, I liked laying a unit on it. Didn't work out so well for me, as the Yanks rolled. Whatever.

[kidcd]

I think Zito gets the job done again good Luck.

[Terrapin Station]

I think Zito gets the job done again good Luck.

Agree. He's looked great this season. He's had some pretty damn good success against Colorado hitters in the past too.

[dodger33]

I just think SF and the Padres also are not getting any respect from Vegas. I think they both roll today.

[feldzpar]

The reason I played Baltimore was b/c Matusz had pitched very well to that point, and Burnett hadn't fared as well. Line movement did not play into that wager. I thought Baltimore had a shot to win, and at that price, I liked laying a unit on it. Didn't work out so well for me, as the Yanks rolled. Whatever.

I think your logic played into the deception from the books. Matusz had done so well he was gonna shut down the Yanks and go all nine, which justified the drastic line movement. The psychological aspect should be recognized and discussed, this will happen again at some point.

Square bettors felt square to take the Yanks seeing the reverse line movement at such a rate cuz now even squared bettors know what a RLM is. Sharp bettors felt they better hurry in on Balti cuz the value was disappearing at remarkable speed. It was an interesting market for that game and I think the books accomplished their goal, which was to get more money on Balti.

Take the second game of the series. The line kept climbing and action kept rolling in on the Yanks, it climbed almost 50 points from opening to gametime. I think the books realized that if they used the same strategy in game 3 the result would have been the same, every one would have ate the chalk and Yanks roll.

This was a smart move by the books. It created uncertainty in almost every kind of bettor out there. Now the hard part is going to be on the look out for similar situations again. That game mentally drained me.