April 28: C.C. Sabathia, Yankees at Baltimore Orioles

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  • Willie Bee
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 02-14-06
    • 15726

    #1
    April 28: C.C. Sabathia, Yankees at Baltimore Orioles
    MLB Betting Preview: C.C. Sabathia, Yankees at Baltimore Orioles

    Break up the Orioles! After winning just two of its first 18, Baltimore has now strung together back-to-back wins heading into tonight's matchup with the New York Yankees.

    It has become a familiar pitching matchup when these two teams have met over the past couple of seasons. And except for the first battle between New York's C.C. Sabathia and Baltimore's Jeremy Guthrie, the outcome has been a familiar one as well.



    The Yankees and O's continue their series Wednesday at Camden Yards with New York decided chalk. The early lines listed the Yankees minus 200 and higher with 8½ for the scoreboard mark.

    Tuesday's series opener found the Orioles pulling the mild upset with a 5-4 win. A walk and a hit batsman ignited a three-run sixth inning for Baltimore. New York was the 170 favorite in the game and the total landed squarely on the nine.

    Sabathia and Guthrie squared off three times in 2009, with New York winning two of the games. They first met on Opening Day in Baltimore when the O's battered C.C. in his pinstripe debut. Sabathia worked an out into the fifth inning and was charged with six runs in Baltimore's 10-5 win. He also walked five O's without a strikeout while Guthrie was hurling through six frames while allowing three runs.

    Guthrie would face the Yankees four more times after that, with Baltimore drawing the short score in all four. Sabathia's ensuing four starts all resulted in New York victories, including a 9-0 complete game shutout at Oriole Park.

    Add it all up for the two, and Sabathia recorded a 2.88 ERA in 34 1/3 innings versus the Birds while Guthrie's ERA was 5.40 over 30 frames against the Yanks.

    Sabathia (2-2, 3.00) comes into this one off a loss last Thursday in Oakland. The portly port-sider had some control issues, with six walks in the 4-2 defeat. Two of those free passes came home in the bottom of the first ahead of Kurt Suzuki's three-run blast that decided the game early.

    This will be Sabathia's fourth road start in five assignments on the young '10 slate. His road ERA is 3.42 in 21 innings.

    Guthrie (0-4, 3.46) will be making just his second trip to the home mound, the other one a 5-1 loss on April 23 to the Rays. The Stanford ex allowed three runs in seven innings.

    He's definitely pitched well enough to have won a game by now, but Orioles hitters have not shown up in Guthrie's starts. Then again, Baltimore's offense has been pretty stinky no matter which of their pitchers are working. In Guthrie's four previous starts, only 10 O's have crossed the plate.

    The one and only Laz Diaz will be working the plate for Game 2. Visitors are 3-0 in his plate assignments this season with the 'over' 2-0-1.

    Charm City weather is calling for a clear night, with temperatures in the mid-50s at first pitch. Winds are expected to be brisk, in the 15-20 mph range from the west-northwest (from LF line to behind 1B).

    NOTE: The W-L records shown for starting pitchers are their team's W-L mark when they started games in the 2010 season. Statistical sources for this article were Retrosheet.org, Baseball-Reference.com, ESPN.com and, of course, S-BEE-R-dot-com!
  • SamsNCharge99
    SBR Aristocracy
    • 10-22-08
    • 41242

    #2
    Yanks roll today
    Comment
    • saints7011
      SBR Hall of Famer
      • 09-21-09
      • 5544

      #3
      nice info here , thanks willie bee
      Comment
      • jbrent95
        SBR MVP
        • 12-07-09
        • 1221

        #4
        Great stuff.
        Comment
        • Matweizman
          SBR High Roller
          • 04-28-10
          • 199

          #5
          Average game for CC, yank wood saves the day though... Nyy -1.5
          Comment
          • cadillac pete
            SBR MVP
            • 01-15-06
            • 1675

            #6
            Basically, any time Boston or the Yanks pay a visit to Camden Yards the O's seem to be extra motivated. It's their World Series.
            Comment
            • Wilforth
              Restricted User
              • 05-10-08
              • 16309

              #7
              Looks like a routine win for the Yanks.
              Comment
              • dynamite140
                SBR MVP
                • 07-05-08
                • 4958

                #8
                Yankees play real bad at Baltimore.
                Comment
                • AL1322
                  SBR MVP
                  • 12-07-09
                  • 1944

                  #9
                  ya orioles may win again,lol
                  Comment
                  • geebert74
                    SBR MVP
                    • 09-03-09
                    • 2445

                    #10
                    I have everything i have down on the yanks today...
                    Comment
                    • masse
                      SBR Rookie
                      • 04-13-10
                      • 28

                      #11
                      cant see yanks loose today... Couldnt do that yesterday etiher
                      Comment
                      • jjgold
                        SBR Aristocracy
                        • 07-20-05
                        • 388179

                        #12
                        Cold

                        we are all doubling up on NY today

                        one time
                        Comment
                        • Panekkkk
                          SBR MVP
                          • 03-12-09
                          • 2430

                          #13
                          What's a port-sider?
                          Comment
                          • CappinTerp
                            SBR Hall of Famer
                            • 11-26-09
                            • 9650

                            #14
                            W.B. nice write up as always. GL
                            Comment
                            • G's pks
                              Restricted User
                              • 01-01-09
                              • 22251

                              #15
                              Willie went all in on yanks! GL Willie...
                              Comment
                              • G's pks
                                Restricted User
                                • 01-01-09
                                • 22251

                                #16
                                just kidding!

                                Comment
                                • tokio
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 03-30-10
                                  • 2150

                                  #17
                                  it would be nice to get back the money loss yesterday with the yanks. might put 1.5 units on it.
                                  Comment
                                  • Quadropheniac
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 07-13-09
                                    • 2557

                                    #18
                                    I wonder if there's any value betting the runline...?
                                    Please use this link to give points:

                                    store.sbrforum.com/points/transfer
                                    Comment
                                    • Sawyer
                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                      • 06-01-09
                                      • 7761

                                      #19
                                      Nice write up WB!
                                      Comment
                                      • reverend
                                        SBR Wise Guy
                                        • 06-01-09
                                        • 880

                                        #20
                                        nice.

                                        like the yanks today as well
                                        Comment
                                        • Extra Innings
                                          SBR Posting Legend
                                          • 02-26-10
                                          • 15058

                                          #21
                                          Always appreciate your insight on these games. Probably going to be a lot of inflation on the Moneyline because of yesterday's loss. May throw a little on the RL and over, just because.
                                          Comment
                                          • Extra Innings
                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                            • 02-26-10
                                            • 15058

                                            #22
                                            Originally posted by Quadropheniac
                                            I wonder if there's any value betting the runline...?
                                            Logically, the only "value" would be on Baltimore on both ends...a lot of blind betting on this one.
                                            Comment
                                            • Willie Bee
                                              SBR Posting Legend
                                              • 02-14-06
                                              • 15726

                                              #23
                                              Originally posted by Panekkkk
                                              What's a port-sider?
                                              A southpaw, wrong arm, left-hander.
                                              Comment
                                              • warriorfan707
                                                SBR Posting Legend
                                                • 03-29-08
                                                • 13698

                                                #24
                                                Thanks Willie.
                                                Comment
                                                • Quadropheniac
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 07-13-09
                                                  • 2557

                                                  #25
                                                  Originally posted by Extra Innings
                                                  Logically, the only "value" would be on Baltimore on both ends...a lot of blind betting on this one.

                                                  Thanks!!
                                                  Please use this link to give points:

                                                  store.sbrforum.com/points/transfer
                                                  Comment
                                                  • robertg
                                                    SBR Wise Guy
                                                    • 02-02-09
                                                    • 643

                                                    #26
                                                    nice write-up Willie Bee, its refreshing to read handicapping that doesn't mention "+ev." And quite frankly, I think the info you covered has more to do with projecting the outcome of the game than the pythagorean theorem.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • Extra Innings
                                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                                      • 02-26-10
                                                      • 15058

                                                      #27
                                                      Originally posted by Quadropheniac


                                                      Thanks!!
                                                      Only a guess my friend as I am merely a recreational bettor....more often than not taking the dog with teams like NYY, LOS, BOS, LAL, etc. has value but I wouldn't use this as a blanket approach to handicapping. I assume very popular teams are going to get a lot of attention from the linesmakers. I assume that the line is close to or dead on when set and the movement had a lot to do with public action compounded by some wounded bankrolls for those who "just bet the Yankees". As a recreational bettor, the Yankees RL seems like a good play.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • Naz18
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 09-10-09
                                                        • 4277

                                                        #28
                                                        This is a rubber condom play...
                                                        Comment
                                                        • whatsgood5
                                                          Restricted User
                                                          • 10-13-09
                                                          • 15359

                                                          #29
                                                          Originally posted by SamsNCharge99
                                                          Yanks roll today
                                                          Comment
                                                          • whatsgood5
                                                            Restricted User
                                                            • 10-13-09
                                                            • 15359

                                                            #30
                                                            Also leike the under here, think C.C pitches another good game
                                                            Comment
                                                            • DrStale
                                                              SBR Hall of Famer
                                                              • 12-07-08
                                                              • 9692

                                                              #31
                                                              Orioles take it.
                                                              Originally posted by Dark Horse
                                                              If with religion you mean belief system, your belief system is your religion. Again, it matters not what it is. You believe in it, you are loyal to it, would defend it, and yet have no proof of it, other than that, at one point or another, you chose to believe in it. Self-hypnosis. What if there were a snapping of fingers that broke the hypnosis?
                                                              Comment
                                                              • Facepunch
                                                                SBR MVP
                                                                • 11-17-09
                                                                • 2090

                                                                #32
                                                                Might be a no play for me,
                                                                I am leaning towards Orioles +1.5 Though
                                                                Comment
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