Totals players....61.9% win rate Last 3 years.

thebestthereis · 04-21-10, 04:44 PM

yes i have seen this before. i use the biggest sandwhich on the bk value menu for the most calories, guaranteed; i can usually eat two of them and it satisfies my hunger.

Nimo · 04-21-10, 04:49 PM

Originally posted by thebestthereis

yes i have seen this before. i use the biggest sandwhich on the bk value menu for the most calories, guaranteed; i can usually eat two of them and it satisfies my hunger.

Dammit, now I want a breakfast sandwhich and they stop serving those at 11am

thebestthereis · 04-22-10, 02:49 PM

go into the back a tell them you it your way, i did that and it worked.

Nimo · 05-20-10, 11:10 AM

10-7-1 so far this May 55.55%

18-0 as a chase with no more than a "B" so far.

Panekkkk · 05-20-10, 11:23 AM

Where do you find rotation #'s online?

Nimo · 05-20-10, 11:28 AM

Click on Live Odds MLB right here on SBR and look to the left of the screen.

jolmscheid · 05-20-10, 12:55 PM

Hey Nimo...do you know if this trend has worked for longer than 3 years? Thanks, and do you know of any other trends??

Peregrine Stoop · 05-20-10, 01:01 PM

data mining blah

Nimo · 05-20-10, 01:01 PM

I've only tracked this for the past 3 years. I have several "systems" that I use. Most are math based and most are at least slightly profitable. If I make at least 20 units per year, per system, I'm happy. I post some of them, but I am wary of posting something that hasn't at least a 3 year record, I don't want anyone to lose money because of me.

jolmscheid · 05-20-10, 01:18 PM

I understand...any that you are certain of? Thanks N

daneault23 · 05-20-10, 01:19 PM

Hmm. Sounds interesting. So the highest number in rotation are usually games on the west coast. Is there a cutoff for number of games played in a day for this "system"? Because some days there aren't many games.

Sawyer · 05-20-10, 02:08 PM

yeah usually poor-hitting teams like mariners & padres are the last game on the board.

Nimo · 05-20-10, 08:01 PM

Originally posted by daneault23

Hmm. Sounds interesting. So the highest number in rotation are usually games on the west coast. Is there a cutoff for number of games played in a day for this "system"? Because some days there aren't many games.

Nope, it's sometimes not the last game of the day, today it's an 8:10pm Eastern game. Just the highest number on the rotation.

supplykim · 05-20-10, 08:20 PM

so they play for today was LAA-CWS under?

solepride · 05-20-10, 08:23 PM

LOL what is the streak at right now

Grind-It-Out · 05-20-10, 08:39 PM

Originally posted by Nimo

Taking the highest game by rotation number, usually #930 or #980 of the day hit's UNDER(no matter the line) in May last 3 years 61.9% of the time and for May and June 58.7% of the time and 54.7% from May 1 to Sept 30. Don't ask me why, I have no idea, I'm just really good at seeing patterns. Average line is -113. I use it personally as my Holy Grail chase system. +120-150 Units per year.

Wow. This is just stupid.

I've got a prop for you...

How many people use meaningless trends to handicap?
Over 65% -110
Under 65% -110

Grind-It-Out · 05-20-10, 08:41 PM

Originally posted by Sawyer

yeah usually poor-hitting teams like mariners & padres are the last game on the board.

This is a much more logical approach. Even if statistically significant enough to confirm success, it has nothing to do with the rotation numbers. It would be something similar to what Sawyer said.

Nimo · 05-21-10, 02:32 PM

Grind-it-Out,

Thank you for your candid reply. I never proposed that I was a handicapper. I just like to profit in whatever way I can. If I found a way to know if Jeter sh1ts green M & M's before every Yankee loss then I would use it to profit. I don't have the elitist attitude to say that I know anything about handicapping. I just use my what I like to call "systems" and profit. I share some, I don't share others. I apply the same methods as a stock trader to sports investments and then use the systems as departments in my business plan, I look for patterns on charts and go with the flow. BTW you should see the results you can get with technical analysis double tops/bottoms on NBA scores, it's unreal.

jolmscheid,

I have posted many things on another forum(Statfox) under my real name Nick. Check those out if you want

daneault23 · 05-21-10, 03:16 PM

So nimo when the game loses, do you chase it till it wins? Cuz last night the Angels n White Sox game went over.

Grind-It-Out · 05-21-10, 03:25 PM

Originally posted by Nimo

Grind-it-Out,

Thank you for your candid reply. I never proposed that I was a handicapper. I just like to profit in whatever way I can. If I found a way to know if Jeter sh1ts green M & M's before every Yankee loss then I would use it to profit. I don't have the elitist attitude to say that I know anything about handicapping. I just use my what I like to call "systems" and profit. I share some, I don't share others. I apply the same methods as a stock trader to sports investments and then use the systems as departments in my business plan, I look for patterns on charts and go with the flow. BTW you should see the results you can get with technical analysis double tops/bottoms on NBA scores, it's unreal.

jolmscheid,

I have posted many things on another forum(Statfox) under my real name Nick. Check those out if you want

Well, I like your stance. In the end, who really cares if you're a "handicapper" or not? The only real goal is to make money.

Perhaps you have had success with your systems, but 99% of "systems" that people use are complete horse crap, and eventually fail. If you have chosen one of the select few that work, then props to you.

og4667 · 05-21-10, 03:29 PM

interesting. thanks for sharing. Looks like you got a B bet on the MAriners/padres game tonight.

hels · 05-21-10, 03:37 PM

This can only be due to 1 of 2 things:

1. Statistical anomoly that will eventually 'shit the bed.'
2. The teams who play in the 'highest rotation number' matchup are unevenly dispersed with many of the teams/matchups playing in this game having under trends.

Take your pick.

Nimo · 05-21-10, 06:56 PM

Yup, Seattle/SD Under 6.5 is today's play. A "B" bet on the chase.

daneault23 · 05-21-10, 08:39 PM

Originally posted by hels

This can only be due to 1 of 2 things:

1. Statistical anomoly that will eventually 'shit the bed.'
2. The teams who play in the 'highest rotation number' matchup are unevenly dispersed with many of the teams/matchups playing in this game having under trends.

Take your pick.

Yeah, I'm thinking it's a bit more of number one than number two, but if it hits then I'm not worried.

FreeFall · 05-21-10, 08:48 PM

this would be an example of why curve fitting is negatively looked up. You just found a set of conditions that hit at a high rate and you called it +eV.

daneault23 · 05-22-10, 07:10 PM

Well it looks like a "C" bet tonight with the Padres again. Not playing this game, but interesting to see what happens.

netinfo · 05-22-10, 11:08 PM

Yup, Seattle/SD Under 6.5 is today's play. A "B" bet on the chase.

The Under on the SDG/SEA game looks really good right now, 2-1 top of the 8th. Hope it stays low, and you cash it bro.

netinfo

HoulihansTX · 05-22-10, 11:13 PM

Yea this info is gold.

All you haters go jump off a tall building without a parachute.

Flying Dutchman · 05-22-10, 11:17 PM

This is like the Saturday game in the NFL for years was a bet against the home team: away teams were winning ATS at a 65% clip...and then it went away...and then we had a trend where the home teams were winning 60% ATS for 5-6 years in a row...and that went away...the trend is your friend until it turns around and fvks you.

Chi_archie · 05-22-10, 11:17 PM

strange stuff

THE PROFIT · 05-22-10, 11:20 PM

this is strange! How has it been this month?

netinfo · 05-22-10, 11:47 PM

Good job, another Under win for you!

netinfo

jtang0701 · 05-22-10, 11:59 PM

intersting observation. thanks for the information! GL everyone

Nimo · 06-24-10, 02:53 PM

Update:

Based on closing Pinny Line. Average Line = -113

As a single bet record 28-22-4, 3 of the pushes were right on the line, the other was a rain out.

As a chase where you chase to get your 1 unit per series of 3 (A,B,C) bets 28-0 with a "B" bet pending tonight.

As a chase where you chase to get your 1 unit profit PER DAY played (if your bankroll can handle the pushes and losses combined) 54-0 with a "B" bet pending.

As I have time I will research this to see if any similar patterns fall into other daily play sports ( NHL, NBA). There is a small pattern with a rotation number with home teams, but the lines are too high, I'd rather stick with an average line of -113
on the totals.

I will post past 3 years results in a few weeks.