Kelvim Escobar

Stevethesteeler · 10-04-07, 08:55 PM

No real information, but it would be hard to believe that they would allow him to start in such a big game if he wasnt 100%. They could give him a few more days rest for the series to go back to Anaheim and start Weaver tomorrow.

EJandV · 10-05-07, 02:22 AM

yes , this looks like something to make the puzzle appear harder than it is . Scared to pull the trigger not knowing what is up with Angel starter .............The puzzle is made complicated alot like this , of course it can save you a loss by staying away from it toooooooooooooooooo .

Tchocky · 10-05-07, 11:16 AM

Highly doubtful Escobar can pitch 5 innings. I like the Red Sox -1.5 runs +137.

Willie Bee · 10-05-07, 12:44 PM

Looking through the numbers this week in advance of doing the daily previews for the front page, one of the most interesting stats I came across had to do with Matsuzaka for this game...

SBRforum.com
...Dice K made 15 starts during his 32-start rookie season when he was facing a team for the first time. Boston went 9-6 in those games with Matsuzaka working 102.2 innings and posting a 3.24 ERA and 111 strikeouts versus 37 walks. All three of his 10-K games this season came when facing a lineup for the first time.

Now the W-L record for the Sox isn't all that impressive in those 15 games at just 9-6. But the rest of the numbers are. Maybe we make too much out of the fact batters have never seen a pitcher before, but in this case, I feel it's certainly warranted in terms of slicing the game up into a probability pie.

Escobar has pitched well in recent times against the Red Sox and in Boston. But the uncertainty with his health combined with Matsuzaka's 1st-start stats above sure seem to push the probability of a Red Sox win up in my mind. The run line would be a great way to sweep away the chalk on Boston, but I'm usually to big of a wuss to play run lines

BossRoss · 10-05-07, 12:47 PM

Escobar's uncertain health is one contributing reason why the OVER is looking solid IMO, Already have an Over Ump here and if Escobar doesn't have it, he could be good for a few runs early and force the pen to have to overwork! Dice-K is also a big ???, Will he bring that nasty no-hit type stuff, or will he stuggle with his command like he did once his IP got up there, and be good for a few himself! Escobar's questionable status makes LAA and Under no option IMO!

EJandV · 10-05-07, 01:17 PM

Damn Boss ?

Originally posted by BossRoss

Escobar's uncertain health is one contributing reason why the OVER is looking solid IMO, Already have an Over Ump here and if Escobar doesn't have it, he could be good for a few runs early and force the pen to have to overwork! Dice-K is also a big ???, Will he bring that nasty no-hit type stuff, or will he stuggle with his command like he did once his IP got up there, and be good for a few himself! Escobar's questionable status makes LAA and Under no option IMO!

Remember when postseason games were pitchers duels alot ?
RSox shut out the Angles in game 1 , 4 - 0 was a far cry from the 8.5 total that closed at 9 .
If the Angels had did their part offensivley and it was a classic tie score game , extra innings , then the original 8.5 was secure to go over .

What happened to the thinking more along the lines of runs are precious in the playoffs , small ball style bunting the runner over to 2nd giving away outs as opposed to playing for the big blast , great defense , the simple pitchers duel thinking ?
Since the 1st game was over I feel your over 9.5 a little more, but still the hook , the .5 I hate with a passion . GL nevertheless .

bigboydan · 10-05-07, 01:22 PM

Originally posted by BossRoss

Escobar's uncertain health is one contributing reason why the OVER is looking solid IMO, Already have an Over Ump here and if Escobar doesn't have it, he could be good for a few runs early and force the pen to have to overwork! Dice-K is also a big ???, Will he bring that nasty no-hit type stuff, or will he stuggle with his command like he did once his IP got up there, and be good for a few himself! Escobar's questionable status makes LAA and Under no option IMO!

I actually am considering this over myself. DiceK has been either an extremely or extremely cold type pitcher all year. Plus the fact that both Mathews and Vlad are slated to be in the lineup today...It could cause some real headaches for DiceK if Figgens causes caos in the first inning.

Willie Bee · 10-05-07, 01:39 PM

Originally posted by BossRoss

Escobar's uncertain health is one contributing reason why the OVER is looking solid IMO, Already have an Over Ump here and if Escobar doesn't have it, he could be good for a few runs early and force the pen to have to overwork! Dice-K is also a big ???, Will he bring that nasty no-hit type stuff, or will he stuggle with his command like he did once his IP got up there, and be good for a few himself! Escobar's questionable status makes LAA and Under no option IMO!

Pretty much agree with you, BossRoss, especially the part about not knowing what Matsuzaka will bring tonight as much as not knowing what shape Escobar's wing is in.

Dice K had some really mucked up stats all around when you look at them. His road ERA was three-quarter of a run plus lower on the road than at home, but he had a losing record on the road and a winning mark at home. The home/road splits in his ERA really look out of whack when you realize he gave up more than twice as many long balls on the road than in Fenway.

But my biggest trouble with the Over tonight is the uncertainty of what the Angels' lineup is going to do whether they were facing Matuszaka or some complete bum. Knowing that Escobar isn't 100% will put even more pressure on their bats.

EJandV · 10-06-07, 12:14 AM

Both Under !

[QUOTE=EJandV;366927

What happened to the thinking more along the lines of runs are precious in the playoffs , small ball style bunting the runner over to 2nd giving away outs as opposed to playing for the big blast , great defense , the simple pitchers duel thinking ?
Since the 1st game was over I feel your over 9.5 a little more, but still the hook , the .5 I hate with a passion . [/QUOTE]

BOTH FINISH UNDER THE TOTAL .