San Francisco Giants/Pittsburgh Pirates

[yisman]

Brian Burres is replacing Ross Ohlendorf, who is experiencing back spasms.


From a Pirates blog:

Burres will start tonight because Ross Ohlendorf has back spasms. Burres is a low-velocity lefty and a mediocrity by any standard--the best available option only because Brad Lincoln just pitched and Kevin Hart is a mess--so tonight should be pretty much unbearable.

The news caused a major line move, of course::

04/12 10:20 +157 / -167
04/12 10:30 +154 / -164
04/12 11:06 +149 / -159
04/12 17:23 +144 / -153
04/12 17:30 +146 / -155
04/12 18:07 +185 / -197
04/12 18:08 +176 / -188
04/12 18:26 +174 / -186
04/12 19:03 +177 / -189
04/12 19:10 +175 / -187
04/12 20:26 +170 / -181
04/12 20:32 +169 / -180
04/12 20:36 +172 / -183


Here's what's interesting, though. The total would be expected to go up as well, but it hasn't budged.

04/12 11:38 8½ -105 / 8½ -105
04/12 11:45 8½ -104 / 8½ -106
04/12 13:54 8½ +100 / 8½ -110
04/12 13:58 8½ -103 / 8½ -107
04/12 13:59 8½ -105 / 8½ -105
04/12 19:03 8½ -113 / 8½ +102
04/12 19:21 8½ -112 / 8½ +102
04/12 19:49 8½ -114 / 8½ +103
04/12 19:53 8½ -111 / 8½ +101
04/12 19:54 8½ -109 / 8½ -101
04/12 20:01 8½ -107 / 8½ -103
04/12 20:26 8½ -105 / 8½ -105

[Terrapin Station]

I like the Giants and the over tonight

[poker_dummy101]

wonder what eggnog says about this now

[TheAccountant]

I think the play is the Giants, even with the line movement. Zito would have beat up on Ohlendorf, and once you get into the depths of the Bucs organization, pitching gets really ugly fast.

[LostBankroll]

Im not touching this one. Even though Pitt is going with another pitcher, the only play I would take would be Pitt +180 since its where the value is. I wouldnt touch SF at -180. Live to fight another day.

[statnerds]

Giants TT?

[BobHarvey]

Ohlendorf would have been a definite play against. His ERA on the road is about 2-3 runs higher than at home.

[BeatTheJerk]

I like the Giants and the over tonight

ditto.

[yisman]

I think the over is reasonable, unless anyone can figure out why the books haven't moved the total.

[superjeff24]

giants and over is the play to put all your units on IMO. I'd need +300 to pick pitts in this situation

[Enogsiwon]

It's been raining in the bay area for a couple days straight... Rains are gone, sun is shining bright.. It's Run Scoring Weather..

Over for game and both Team Totals and small play on Pirates..

Zito should NEVER be -190.. Even if fukkin Venditto was on the hill for the Pirates..

[statnerds]

Giants TT?

5
-110?

any takers?

[nbt3428]

Pound it fellas...

[suicidekings]

I think the over is reasonable, unless anyone can figure out why the books haven't moved the total.

Not moving the total up would imply that they're not comfortable with it being any higher..? Already ~70% on the over though...

[yisman]

Not moving the total up would imply that they're not comfortable with it being any higher..?

I guess so.

It just doesn't make sense to me to have the same total no matter who is starting for Pittsburgh, when the starting pitcher caused like a 30 cent line move on the ML.

[TheAccountant]

I guess so.

It just doesn't make sense to me to have the same total no matter who is starting for Pittsburgh, when the starting pitcher caused like a 30 cent line move on the ML.

Agreed - these two facts are counterintuitive. At least a half run jump, especially with so much over money..

[Walulu]

Took the over and SF -1.5, based on the above this seems to be the right play?

[suicidekings]

Small play on the U8 & U9. Just a feeling.

[TheAccountant]

1st Burres pitch is a strike - good start Bucs

[Wilforth]

Ohlendorf would have been a definite play against. His ERA on the road is about 2-3 runs higher than at home.

But he seems to do well in Game 1 of a series.

[PittsburghPlayer]

Small play on the U8 & U9. Just a feeling.

Same here, Burress has ML experience, he`ll probably do OK.

[statnerds]

HBP

bases juiced

let's go you fukks

[Enogsiwon]

This Burres guy won't last 4 innings.. Looks like alot of runs tonight..

[TheAccountant]

That performance isn't gonna cut it Burres

[mtneer1212]

Just make sure that all of you who have the Over or the SF RL -1 1/2 have Burress as the listed pitcher for the Bucs, or you are getting a refund.

[TheAccountant]

Burres currently has a 40.50 ERA hehe that made me laugh

[suicidekings]

Burres gave up 3 runs, but 17 of 30 pitches for strikes. Not terrible. If he hadn't hit Huff, he might have escaped unharmed... Zito is frustrating to watch, year after year. Tonight he was staked to a 3-0 run and he's still not really going after these hitters. Trying to bite the edges of the strike zone and running his count up, then he's forced to throw strikes...

[EvergrenMoneyMoB]

Lets go Giant Lay the juice!!!!

[Handiman]

this one is going over

[RJBucs]

Just make sure that all of you who have the Over or the SF RL -1 1/2 have Burress as the listed pitcher for the Bucs, or you are getting a refund.

. Over 1st 5 4.5 and over 8.5. lets cash fellas!

[Enogsiwon]

You wanna see some hard hit balls? Watch this half inning.. Zito will struggle here.. Top 4

[suicidekings]

Burres comes back with an 8 pitch 1-2-3 2nd inning.

[rob11234]

Seems to me Zito's struggled ever since he left Oakland.

You wanna see some hard hit balls? Watch this half inning.. Zito will struggle here.. Top 4

[RJBucs]

. Over 1st 5 4.5 and over 8.5. lets cash fellas!

1st5 over 4.5

[Afrot69]

Giants are doing work tonight.