Benjy's MLB's picks 2010

[benjy]

All lines from 5Dimes. All bets risk 1 unit on dogs and to win 1 unit on faves. Unit size varies according to how bankroll (~2.5% of roll) does. Tail or Fade.

Nats +240
Astros +195
Marlins -137
Pirates +150
Rangers -125
CWS -129

[50cent]

gl...

[benjy]

All lines from 5Dimes. All bets risk 1 unit on dogs and to win 1 unit on faves. Unit size varies according to how bankroll (~2.5% of roll) does. Tail or Fade.

Nats +240 LOSS
Astros +195 LOSS
Marlins -137 LOSS
Pirates +150 VOID (pitching change)
Rangers -125 WIN
CWS -129 WIN

-1.37 units. Not the worst start.

[benjy]

Tuesday

LAD-169
Mets+140
TB-120
CWS-102 (I really like this one, still 1 unit)
OAK-128

[benjy]

LAD-169 WIN
Mets+140 LOSS
TB-120 WIN
CWS-102 (I really like this one, still 1 unit) LOSS
OAK-128 LOSS

-1.3 units on the day; -2.67 total

[benjy]

Wednesday

Pirates+168
Nats+200
Phils/Nats over 10 +100
Reds+118
KC+157
Tex-110

[benjy]

Pirates+168 LOSS
Nats+200 LOSS
Phils/Nats over 10 +100 WIN
Reds+118 LOSS
KC+157 WIN
Tex-110 WIN

+0.57 units on the day; -2.1 total

[benjy]

Thursday

Astros+200

more to come

[smarmy]

why is everyone on Houston today?? I know that they have to win one sooner or later, but StL is not going to give up that win.

[benjy]

Cubs (Suppan sucks) +155
Mets (Too much +money) +181
Reds (Harang's OK) +133
D-Backs (Haren's a stud) +116
Yanks (I can't believe I'm saying it) -162

[benjy]

why is everyone on Houston today?? I know that they have to win one sooner or later, but StL is not going to give up that win.

I like the plus money. Norris apparently has great stuff but control problems. He's an unknown and I always like callups/rookies in their first few starts before the scouts and videotape guys get them all figured out. Lohse is only decent, no great shakes. The Cards certainly hit better than the anemic Astros.

All in all I figure that the Astros should win this game about 43% of the time and there's decent value here.

[benjy]

Astros +200 WIN
Cubs (Suppan sucks) -165 LOSS
Mets (Too much +money) +181 WIN
Reds (Harang's OK) +133 LOSS
D-Backs (Haren's a stud) +116 LOSS
Yanks (I can't believe I'm saying it) -162 WIN

+1.16 units on the day; -0.94 units total

[benjy]

Friday

Astros +165
Rockies +124
Rangers +195
Tribe +118
KC +117

[benjy]

Astros +165 LOSS
Rockies +124 LOSS
Rangers +195 LOSS
Tribe +118 WIN
KC +117 LOSS

-2.82 units on the day; -3.76 units total

rough day for my dogs

[benjy]

Sat

Astros+133 (Gorzelanny's a bum)
Giants -163 (cheap for Lincecum)
Marlins +103 (Moyer's a JOKE, Nolasco's decent)
Pirates +126 (I don't buy into Cueto hype)
Rockies -115 (I like Jimenez)

Texas+175 (Too much plus money. AJ's erratic too)
Rays +118 (Shield's is underrated)
Tigers -133 (Verlander has a good game)

[benjy]

[QUOTE=benjy;4128247]Astros+133 (Gorzelanny's a bum) WIN
Giants -163 (cheap for Lincecum) WIN
Marlins +103 (Moyer's a JOKE, Nolasco's decent) WIN
Pirates +126 (I don't buy into Cueto hype) WIN
Rockies -115 (I like Jimenez) WIN

Texas+175 (Too much plus money. AJ's erratic too) LOSS
Rays +118 (Shield's is underrated) WIN
Tigers -133 (Verlander has a good game) LOSS /QUOTE]

+4.37 units on the day; +0.61 units total

[benjy]

Sunday

Pirates +105
Nats -102
Astros +169

Texas+155
White Sox +105
Red Sox-137
O's+161
Tigers-122

[benjy]

Pirates +105 WIN
Nats -102 LOSS
Astros +169 WIN

Texas+155 LOSS
White Sox +105 LOSS
Red Sox-137 LOSS
O's+161 WIN
Tigers-122 WIN

+0.96 units on the day, +1.57 units on the week

[benjy]

Mon Wk2

Rays +166 (too much plus money)
KC +102 (Morrow's a disaster thus far)
LAA -161 (so is Willis)
O's +139 (non-intuitive spreadsheet pick)

[benjy]

Rays +166 (too much plus money) WIN
KC +102 (Morrow's a disaster thus far) LOSS
LAA -161 (so is Willis) WIN
O's +139 (non-intuitive spreadsheet pick) LOSS

+0.66 units on the day, +0.66 units for the week
+1.57 units week 1
+2.23 units total

[benjy]

Tuesday, Wk 2

Lots of tasty #'s today. The NL

Rockies -136 (Olsen sucks)
Pirates +113
Cubs -103 (I still have faith in big Z)
Braves-138 (Kendrick is a joke)
Marlins -109 (both starters meh, Fish hit better)
D-backs -138 (Haren's a stud)

[benjy]

Tues AL

Rangers +127 (50% chance Wakefield blows up)
Tribe +144 (Masterson's OK, too much +money)
Yanks -166 (I must be the only one who likes Vazquez)

[benjy]

Rockies -136 (Olsen sucks) WIN
Pirates +113 LOSS
Cubs -103 (I still have faith in big Z) LOSS
Braves-138 (Kendrick is a joke) WIN
Marlins -109 (both starters meh, Fish hit better) LOSS
D-backs -138 (Haren's a stud) WIN
Rangers +127 (50% chance Wakefield blows up) LOSS
Tribe +144 (Masterson's OK, too much +money) LOSS
Yanks -166 (I must be the only one who likes Vazquez) WIN

-1.12 units on the day; -0.46 units for the week
+1.57 units week 1
+1.11 units total

[benjy]

Wednesday, wk2

Rockies -106 (this line makes no sense to me)
LAD/Reds under 9 -125
cubs -105 (Silva may be bad but Perez is worse)
cubs/Mets over 8.5-115
cards-149
cards/dbacks under 9-110
KC-105 (Greinke!)
Tribe+170 (too much +money)

[benjy]

Rockies -106 (this line makes no sense to me) LOSS
LAD/Reds under 9 -125 LOSS
cubs -105 (Silva may be bad but Perez is worse) WIN
cubs/Mets over 8.5-115 WIN
cards-149 WIN
cards/dbacks under 9-110 LOSS
KC-105 (Greinke!) WIN
Tribe+170 (too much +money) LOSS

Felt like a disaster, but not so bad.

-0.41 units on the day; -0.87 units for the week
+1.57 units week 1
+0.70 units total

[benjy]

Thursday wk2

Mets-159 (Gorzellanny blows)
Cubs/Mets over 7.0 -110
Braves -140 (Moyer blows too)

Tribe +180 (I'm a sucker for the +cash)
Texas +130 (Wilson may be for real)
NYY/A's under 8.0 -115
Tigers -105 (not a fan of Saunders)

[benjy]

Mets-159 (Gorzellanny blows) WIN
Cubs/Mets over 7.0 -110 PUSH
Braves -140 (Moyer blows too) LOSS

Tribe +180 (I'm a sucker for the +cash) WIN
Texas +130 (Wilson may be for real) WIN
NYY/A's under 8.0 -115 WIN
Tigers -105 (not a fan of Saunders) WIN

Good day. The grind continues.

+4.70 units on the day; +3.83 units for the week
+1.57 units week 1
+5.40 units total

[benjy]

Friday, wk2

Busy day.

Pads+107
Pitt+151
Cubs-123
Fish-105
Dbacks+165
SF-168

Jays+205
Tigers+114
Tigers/Rangers under9-116
Twins-138

[benjy]

Busy day.

Pads+107 WIN
Pitt+151 LOSS
Cubs-123 WIN
Fish-105 PPD
Dbacks+165 WIN
SF-168 WIN

Jays+205 WIN
Tigers+114 LOSS
Tigers/Rangers under9-116 PUSH
Twins-138 WIN

Many lines started moving against me. Thought it might be a rough day. Nice results in the end.

+5.77 units on the day; +9.60 units for the week
+1.57 units week 1
+11.17 units total

[benjy]

Saturday, wk2

cubs-111
Fish G2+141
Cards-146
FishG1+108

LAA+106
Twins-120
Tigers+155
Tigers/Texas O9.5+100

[benjy]

Sunday, wk2

Getting the Sunday #'s in early:

Pirates+158 (Myers blows)
Cubs+103 (Wells>>Bush)
Dbacks+106 (Kendrick blows)
Braves-115 (I like Hanson)

Jays+200 (Morrow looked good and in control last outing)
Yanks-134 (Vazquez gets no respect)

[benjy]

cubs-111 WIN
Fish G2+141 LOSS
Cards-146 LOSS
FishG1+108 WIN

LAA+106 LOSS
Twins-120 WIN
Tigers+155 VOID
Tigers/Texas O9.5+100 VOID

I actually grabbed some tigers after the pitching change @ +180ish but I'll leave it out.

-0.38 units on the day; +9.22 units for the week
+1.57 units week 1
+10.79 units total

[crinkledaces]

good luck today

[benjy]

good luck today

Thanks CA!

[benjy]

Getting the Sunday #'s in early:

Pirates+158 (Myers blows) LOSS
Cubs+103 (Wells>>Bush) WIN
Dbacks+106 (Kendrick blows) WIN
Braves-115 (I like Hanson) LOSS

Jays+200 (Morrow looked good and in control last outing) LOSS
Yanks-134 (Vazquez gets no respect) LOSS

Poor day. Regressing toward the mean after good days Fri & Sat. Still a fine week.

-2.40 units on the day. +6.82 units for week 2
+1.57 units week 1
+8.39 units total