A 'Qualified' Chase System - input welcome

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  • linedrivr
    SBR MVP
    • 01-04-10
    • 2223

    #1
    A 'Qualified' Chase System - input welcome
    I have not seen this chase approach used and have been thinking of going this route for the upcoming season beginning Saturday April 17th as my beginning wager day.

    I have not used a chase system before but think my modified approach would be profitable this Baseball season by having a smaller $$ exposure Chase System that requires a team to lose game 1 of the series before it becomes a series wager play. Basically, a system that does not start until game 2 of a series.

    Teams chosen would be home teams that play well at home and a few teams that play well on the road.

    examples of plays after Friday April 9th games, teams I would play today as an 'A' bet would be:

    Marlins over the Dodgers
    Redsox over Royals
    Whitesox over Twins
    Angels over Oakland

    what do you guys think about this modified system? less money exposed since chosen teams have already lost game 1 of series without a wager being on them.

    input welcome.
  • balls2wall
    SBR MVP
    • 12-20-09
    • 2642

    #2
    Originally posted by linedrivr
    I have not seen this chase approach used and have been thinking of going this route for the upcoming season beginning Saturday April 17th as my beginning wager day.

    I have not used a chase system before but think my modified approach would be profitable this Baseball season by having a smaller $$ exposure Chase System that requires a team to lose game 1 of the series before it becomes a series wager play. Basically, a system that does not start until game 2 of a series.

    Teams chosen would be home teams that play well at home and a few teams that play well on the road.

    examples of plays after Friday April 9th games, teams I would play today as an 'A' bet would be:

    Marlins over the Dodgers
    Redsox over Royals
    Whitesox over Twins
    Angels over Oakland

    what do you guys think about this modified system? less money exposed since chosen teams have already lost game 1 of series without a wager being on them.

    input welcome.



    Yeah that idea was tossed around in one of the other chase threads. I have done that a couple of times so far, but didn't count them as system plays in my records.

    I believe the consensus was that you miss out on way too many winners because a high percentage of these teams win game 1 of the series.

    So far I am 11-0 with one series pending (BOS). ALL of those 11 wins so far have been game 1 wins!! Boston is the first one I have had go to game 2 of the series. I know this trend will have to slow down soon, but I still think your highest number of wins will come in game 1 if you are playing the top teams or fading the bottom. I believe the actual numbers from previous years can be found in stingyriver's 2nd thread on the subject. http://forum.sbrforum.com/baseball-h...ep-thread.html


    So are you talking about just a 2 game chase (games 2 and 3 of a series)? That would definitely help keep the risk down a bit.


    I have been using the -1rl on games in the -180 and above range which has helped. I am also thinking about ending the series if a game pushes on the -1rl in game 1.


    Playing game 3 to break even is another option I am thinking about.


    I would like to see your version play out. Good luck if you go with it. I will keep an eye on it to see how it goes.


    Comment
    • khaden
      SBR MVP
      • 01-19-09
      • 1864

      #3
      I THINK this has been tested and it drastically cuts down on your winnings since a large number of games hit on the A bet. The intention is to minimize money risked over a 3 game serious if a bet goes to a C bet. However, by not automatically playing the first game you will "loose" alot of units. So if you do lose on the second game (in your scenario) you essentially would be losing your profits--it just wouldn't be in as big of chunk. I hope I explained that so it made sense.

      So far by using the chase outlined in the other threads this week I have played a total of 15 series----
      12 won on the A bet
      1 won on the B bet
      1 won on the C bet

      and I have one pending on the Angels which will be a B bet today.

      So far I am up 14 units this week. By using your version you would only be up (2) units this week pending the Angels series. Even if the Angels would lose the C bet this week I will be still be on the positive side and show a profit for the week.

      I am not being critical of your idea but others have crunched the numbers on this and it has shown not work out as well as just playing the 3 game chase.

      IMO the thing everyone has a problem with is laying the large chunk if a game goes to a c bet. It has shown to work--you just have to stay disciplined and have the guts to lay the money on the C bet. I had to do it once this week and it was a bit nerve racking but you need to stick with the system.
      Comment
      • G's pks
        Restricted User
        • 01-01-09
        • 22251

        #4
        Guys take a look at my thread, I have a link to my thread from last year there also. You can see how it looks for a whole season. I agree do not be skipping first games! Also do not be jumping in and out of series, will spell disastor. And if you follow one of the threads...make sure there is just one person making the picks... There will be teams that get swept at home...it is all about money management... Stay small and gradually work up a winning year. Check my thread from last year... I run two screens which includes first the leans than after a second set of twenty filters I pick out the best plays.
        Comment
        • G's pks
          Restricted User
          • 01-01-09
          • 22251

          #5
          Khaden is right...when i started my thread last year I did my homework and continue to. Know the stats and backtest a system 2-3 years and you should find something very good.
          Comment
          • balls2wall
            SBR MVP
            • 12-20-09
            • 2642

            #6
            Originally posted by G's pks
            Guys take a look at my thread, I have a link to my thread from last year there also. You can see how it looks for a whole season. I agree do not be skipping first games! Also do not be jumping in and out of series, will spell disastor. And if you follow one of the threads...make sure there is just one person making the picks... There will be teams that get swept at home...it is all about money management... Stay small and gradually work up a winning year. Check my thread from last year... I run two screens which includes first the leans than after a second set of twenty filters I pick out the best plays.


            I have been checking out your thread the past few days and am looking forward to it getting rolling now that the plays are starting.


            I will check your last years thread when I get a little free time.


            good luck
            Comment
            • linedrivr
              SBR MVP
              • 01-04-10
              • 2223

              #7
              Originally posted by khaden
              I THINK this has been tested and it drastically cuts down on your winnings since a large number of games hit on the A bet. The intention is to minimize money risked over a 3 game serious if a bet goes to a C bet. However, by not automatically playing the first game you will "loose" alot of units. So if you do lose on the second game (in your scenario) you essentially would be losing your profits--it just wouldn't be in as big of chunk. I hope I explained that so it made sense.

              So far by using the chase outlined in the other threads this week I have played a total of 15 series----
              12 won on the A bet
              1 won on the B bet
              1 won on the C bet

              and I have one pending on the Angels which will be a B bet today.

              So far I am up 14 units this week. By using your version you would only be up (2) units this week pending the Angels series. Even if the Angels would lose the C bet this week I will be still be on the positive side and show a profit for the week.

              I am not being critical of your idea but others have crunched the numbers on this and it has shown not work out as well as just playing the 3 game chase.

              IMO the thing everyone has a problem with is laying the large chunk if a game goes to a c bet. It has shown to work--you just have to stay disciplined and have the guts to lay the money on the C bet. I had to do it once this week and it was a bit nerve racking but you need to stick with the system.
              your explanation makes sense. though 15 series played over the first week of bases is alot of exposure to the bankroll. would that be the average per week based on what you guys are playing?

              I was thinking 3-5 series a week would be bankroll conservative and over a season would get you around 100 series plays with a goal of +90 units. I need to do some more research. I never make a baseball wager before every team has been through their starting rotation twice. next weekend will be my start date for whatever strategy I decide on.

              thanks for the feedback everyone.
              Comment
              • linedrivr
                SBR MVP
                • 01-04-10
                • 2223

                #8
                Originally posted by G's pks
                Khaden is right...when i started my thread last year I did my homework and continue to. Know the stats and backtest a system 2-3 years and you should find something very good.
                I will read through your thread and see whats up.
                Comment
                • scratbandit
                  SBR Wise Guy
                  • 09-07-09
                  • 548

                  #9
                  Love the ideas and the concepts presented.
                  Comment
                  • winningdoc
                    SBR Wise Guy
                    • 05-27-09
                    • 598

                    #10
                    Anyone have any results so far?
                    Comment
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