I am starting a thread tracking the number of games the money line vs the run line makes a difference. i'm not sure about the exact numbers statistically speaking (maybe someone else can help out a bit). I was looking over the scores today (maybe an abberation), and noticed only 1 game was by one run, the other 12-13 games were all by 2 runs or MORE... I hit a 3 teamer for $100 to win almost 900, Seattle, San Fran, and Arizona. I almost took the run lines but would have screwed myself out of hundreds. I have to work early so i'll make this quick... San Fran today was at -1.5 +110 rl, however ml was -149. Is it worth the extra run?? Last year san fran only had 46 games (a quick look) so in just over 25% of games. So in 25-30% of games the run line vs money line is going to make a difference. So if I got an average money line of say -140 or so vs a run line of say -110 and i bet on 162 games would it be worth taking part or all of the games money line?? or run line?? Hmmm... I also want to consider the giants are a pitching heavy run light team, i'm sure that alsomakes a big difference... Based on a 25% difference, i'd say that it still makes sense to take the money line if it's not too high... Hopefully this gets you to think a bit about the money line run line argument.
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Run Lines are the devil...Comment -
Lol mathematically speaking? Or because they've cost u wins? ? ?Comment -
Sometimes you can catch a runline that is profitable, like last nights giants game was pretty easy winner... Let's not completely suggest staying away from them, some new gamblers might see this thread and instantly stay away. Their is some value in a run line some of the time... Like I said earlier nearly 70% of all games will NOT be within 1 run....Comment -
Surprised none of the experienced gamblers have a take on this...Comment -
Run lines are killing houston faders, lol!!!!! duh! Houston is losing their ass off and the books are still making money cuz some just don't get it!!!!Comment -
Just an fyi, if you're taking a rl the giants would be your second best bet right now, with a run differential of +22, the pillies have a +35, absolutely murdering people or teams or players or both! lolComment -
I choked the snake out more times than it bit me, I know this much.... I guess it is just your own personal experience with itComment -
+1.5 Run Lines are fine...
-1.5 for teams like Yankees, Cardinals, Phillies...Comment -
RunLines are only to be wagered upon teams which are Heavy Hitters & are against Low Offensive teams. Second, take into consideration pf course the starting pitcher. Best example: Sat 4/10 the Yankees had C.C. Sabathia open up against Tampa Bay ( I Scored Big Time on this One). This is the obvious opportunity to simply take advantage of a -1.5 @ -105 RunLine as oppose to Yankees MoneyLine @ -200.Comment -
You know this very same type of thread is going on in think tank right now and the Main difference is here we get along and respect each others opinion or just ignore but god forbid if you go post your opinion in the think tank and are not of their kind they will try to crucify you on arrival
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You don't get crucified for reading or positive contributions, but you do get crucified for giving bad information. And that's the way it should be.You know this very same type of thread is going on in think tank right now and the Main difference is here we get along and respect each others opinion or just ignore but god forbid if you go post your opinion in the think tank and are not of their kind they will try to crucify you on arrivalComment -
I have spent 10 years crunching numbers endlessly trying to find that hidden gem that works. Run lines, puck lines, regulation lines, reverse middles, etc. etc. etc. Here is what I've learned. If something works, a lot of people would be doing it and you would know about it by now. Trust me when I say this--if betting the runline regularly was a good idea, it would not have such major opposition on this board, and you would see picks all over the place by the top cappers here that contained a bunch of runlines. But the fact is, you might see one or two runlines a day.
In summary, play runlines sparingly, and be very, very judicious about when you use them. If making regular use of them was a good idea, many people here would have figured it out by now and use them extensively.
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Read this FOcker Daddy you might learn somthing wait a minute who am I kiddingI have spent 10 years crunching numbers endlessly trying to find that hidden gem that works. Run lines, puck lines, regulation lines, reverse middles, etc. etc. etc. Here is what I've learned. If something works, a lot of people would be doing it and you would know about it by now. Trust me when I say this--if betting the runline regularly was a good idea, it would not have such major opposition on this board, and you would see picks all over the place by the top cappers here that contained a bunch of runlines. But the fact is, you might see one or two runlines a day. In summary, play runlines sparingly, and be very, very judicious about when you use them. If making regular use of them was a good idea, many people here would have figured it out by now and use them extensively.
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Don't blame me for your ignorance. It's not my fault you people are too stupid to figure shit out on your own.Comment -
What's really hilarious, Pauly, is that on 4/4/10 you posted a thread of your MLB plays warning people not to follow you since you've never wagered baseball in your life. And now a whole 11 days later, you think you've got it all figured out. LOL. Now that's comedy.Comment -
So you have me pegged then, thank you for clarifying it so well Monkey
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Shawnjohn, if comparing moneyline of -140 (58.3%) to a runline of -110 (52.3%), I would say you would have to win more 6% of the time.
Same goes for any other runline/moneyline comparison.
The market's valuation of the runline is probably better than you think. Wager away if you will, but remember that in all likelihood you are still betting into a 10 cent or 20 cent line, regardless of where you play. There is still vigorish.
I would recommend the same rules as with any wager. Beat the closing number. Get the best number. Look for arbitrage opportunities.
But I doubt anyone listens to these rules.Comment -
i try to stay away but played cards rl last night
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Finally some sage advice. Generally, when there is value in the ML, there is value in the RL. One big difference is how you stake the two wagers. If you go by full Kelly and have a 2% edge in both the -140 and -110 wagers, you'd be betting 2.8% and 2.2% of your bankroll respectively. The ML (-140) wager would actually give you a higher expected profit (0.056% vs 0.044%) and subsequently higher expected growth if you had to choose between the two. The opposite, however, would be true of the +1.5 RL where higher expected growth would come from the RL wager.Comment -
I enjoy betting +1.5's at SIA / Bodog / BetOnline when there is an arbitrage opportunity at Matchbook.Comment -
Intuition is natural gift just like any other athlete,artist,musician ETC. either you have it or you don't and if you do happen to have this gift sports investing becomes a great deal more profitable when you learn how to harness intuition with logic and if you do not understand this it is because you don't have itComment -
Thanks for the info guys. I think this will help out tremendously for me and whoever else
BOLComment -
I got burned by playing the cards runline yesterday...
should have just grabbed the ML
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