LB thread for MLB plays 2010
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dynamitappletiniRestricted User
- 03-27-10
- 917
#876Comment -
SargeantHookerSBR Wise Guy
- 03-08-10
- 572
#878LB - I know that parlays are sucker bets, but do you ever use 2 teamers in baseball to reduce chalk?Comment -
lakerboySBR Aristocracy
- 04-02-09
- 94379
#879Once in a while on big ml faves. Im not really into baseball right now but i will be doing all sorts of different plays after the world cup ends.Comment -
SargeantHookerSBR Wise Guy
- 03-08-10
- 572
#880Thanks for the input. I hate laying huge juice, & I've been fairly successful with 2 teamers thus far. Looking forward to your thoughts on pucks & hoops this evening. Best of luckComment -
lakerboySBR Aristocracy
- 04-02-09
- 94379
#882Braves -124 ML (1x)Comment -
ScarFace_1990SBR Wise Guy
- 04-08-10
- 531
#883Nice hit lbComment -
lakerboySBR Aristocracy
- 04-02-09
- 94379
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lakerboySBR Aristocracy
- 04-02-09
- 94379
#885Braves FF -.5 -120 (.5x)Comment -
lakerboySBR Aristocracy
- 04-02-09
- 94379
#888A's -105 ML (.5x)Comment -
keijo32SBR MVP
- 02-17-10
- 2951
#890LB what a call with BravesComment -
ScarFace_1990SBR Wise Guy
- 04-08-10
- 531
#891Wowwwwwwwwwwwwwwww yewesssssssssssssssssssssss lb for presidenttttttttttttttt!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!Comment -
lakerboySBR Aristocracy
- 04-02-09
- 94379
#892My best win of the season. Im so fukkin happy right now.Comment -
ScarFace_1990SBR Wise Guy
- 04-08-10
- 531
#893wowo wow agdsasfgasfhfComment -
ScarFace_1990SBR Wise Guy
- 04-08-10
- 531
#894ME too metoeot i cant even write a thingdfComment -
HCBooneSBR Wise Guy
- 01-18-10
- 596
#895Haha daamnComment -
wagster71SBR Rookie
- 02-19-10
- 41
#896I'm going out to the store with my winnings to buy a Bobby Cox jersey...ha ha. He is probably going to need a new Depends after this finish!!!! What a great win....congrats LAKER!!!!!!Comment -
pacoSBR Aristocracy
- 05-07-09
- 62873
#897un fvcking real choke job by the reds!Comment -
lakerboySBR Aristocracy
- 04-02-09
- 94379
#898LAte money boys- wins most of the timeComment -
ScarFace_1990SBR Wise Guy
- 04-08-10
- 531
#899paco dont eeven think to wish him good luck the next time you are opposite,Comment -
ScarFace_1990SBR Wise Guy
- 04-08-10
- 531
#900After this i firmly believe at late money un****ing unbelievable wow what a comeback!!Comment -
MikailSBR Posting Legend
- 07-19-09
- 21689
#901gotta love that Braves backers. I am sure you already counted your losses on that game down 9-3 in the 9th.Comment -
JR007SBR Hall of Famer
- 02-21-10
- 5279
#906BOTH AL AND NL SHADING TOWARD UNDER,
AS MARKET SLOWLY ADJUSTS
You don't hear betting sharps pounding their chests about too much these days. They haven't performed to their normal expectations so far in the NBA playoffs. Major League Baseball has been choppy as underdogs have blown hot and cold. The one thing sharps are pleased with is baseball totals.
*Sharps generally play Unders
*We've had a lot of Unders!
I've heard a lot of people commenting on all the low totals on the board of late. During the steroid years it became relatively uncommon to see numbers around 7 except in the very best pitcher's parks. Now, we're seeing 7's and 7.5's all over the place. We've even had a few 6.5's. Squares loved the Over in Houston/San Francisco this past Saturday afternoon in the TV game. They figured a game with a total that low just HAD to go Over. It ended 2-1 when Roy Oswalt and Tim Lincecum had their expected pitcher's duel.
A lot of projected pitcher's duels are going Under, even with the low totals.
I was looking through the team Over/Under performances just before writing this article. For the season, the National League was about 15 games toward the Under for the season (through Sunday). The American League was closer to 25-30 games toward the Under. If you're trying to force Overs right now, LOTSA LUCK!
Why so many Unders?
*Things have been trending away from scoring since the steroid era ended, and the markets have been slow to properly capture the way baseball is being played...particularly with certain sets of teams.
*We had unseasonably warm temperatures very early in the season that helped scoring. That brought out the Over players. Things cooled back off to normal, or below normal...and scoring went down with the temperatures.
*There are some bad offenses playing in the pitcher's parks (offenses that would struggle wherever they played), which has led to some games where the 'right' total may have been more like 4.5 or 5.
*The St. Louis Cardinals have done a lot of this damage themselves. Everyone thinks of them as a high scoring team because of Albert Pujols. They've actually struggled badly on offense this year, keeping themselves in the divisional race with great pitching. Typically, stuff that looks like 'league-wide' or 'sport-wide' trends are just a few extreme individual team trends.
Is the edge about gone now that totals have dropped so low?
Some sharps would tell you yes. Others would say to let the scoreboard tell you. If Oswalt/Lincecum is going to end 2-1, there's still some room for the lines to move!
I would definitely focus on the best situations and the best stadiums for pitching. You know, some of the teams in hitter's parks are still seeing Overs (Arizona jumps to mind). Ideally you're looking at effective starting pitchers, good bullpens, mediocre or worse offenses, and a good pitcher's park (some guys would throw umpires in the mix too). Right now, you only need about half of those to get Unders! As the lines drop, you'll need the full mix.
Also keep an eye on temperatures across the country. It's not that uncommon to hear people complaining about dead offenses in the first part of the season, then bad pitching once the weather warms up in the summer months. There may be a good whipsaw effect coming up where you can win with Overs before the lines adjust to warmer temperatures.Comment -
TakeItSBR Wise Guy
- 04-23-10
- 778
#907BOTH AL AND NL SHADING TOWARD UNDER,
AS MARKET SLOWLY ADJUSTS
You don't hear betting sharps pounding their chests about too much these days. They haven't performed to their normal expectations so far in the NBA playoffs. Major League Baseball has been choppy as underdogs have blown hot and cold. The one thing sharps are pleased with is baseball totals.
*Sharps generally play Unders
*We've had a lot of Unders!
I've heard a lot of people commenting on all the low totals on the board of late. During the steroid years it became relatively uncommon to see numbers around 7 except in the very best pitcher's parks. Now, we're seeing 7's and 7.5's all over the place. We've even had a few 6.5's. Squares loved the Over in Houston/San Francisco this past Saturday afternoon in the TV game. They figured a game with a total that low just HAD to go Over. It ended 2-1 when Roy Oswalt and Tim Lincecum had their expected pitcher's duel.
A lot of projected pitcher's duels are going Under, even with the low totals.
I was looking through the team Over/Under performances just before writing this article. For the season, the National League was about 15 games toward the Under for the season (through Sunday). The American League was closer to 25-30 games toward the Under. If you're trying to force Overs right now, LOTSA LUCK!
Why so many Unders?
*Things have been trending away from scoring since the steroid era ended, and the markets have been slow to properly capture the way baseball is being played...particularly with certain sets of teams.
*We had unseasonably warm temperatures very early in the season that helped scoring. That brought out the Over players. Things cooled back off to normal, or below normal...and scoring went down with the temperatures.
*There are some bad offenses playing in the pitcher's parks (offenses that would struggle wherever they played), which has led to some games where the 'right' total may have been more like 4.5 or 5.
*The St. Louis Cardinals have done a lot of this damage themselves. Everyone thinks of them as a high scoring team because of Albert Pujols. They've actually struggled badly on offense this year, keeping themselves in the divisional race with great pitching. Typically, stuff that looks like 'league-wide' or 'sport-wide' trends are just a few extreme individual team trends.
Is the edge about gone now that totals have dropped so low?
Some sharps would tell you yes. Others would say to let the scoreboard tell you. If Oswalt/Lincecum is going to end 2-1, there's still some room for the lines to move!
I would definitely focus on the best situations and the best stadiums for pitching. You know, some of the teams in hitter's parks are still seeing Overs (Arizona jumps to mind). Ideally you're looking at effective starting pitchers, good bullpens, mediocre or worse offenses, and a good pitcher's park (some guys would throw umpires in the mix too). Right now, you only need about half of those to get Unders! As the lines drop, you'll need the full mix.
Also keep an eye on temperatures across the country. It's not that uncommon to hear people complaining about dead offenses in the first part of the season, then bad pitching once the weather warms up in the summer months. There may be a good whipsaw effect coming up where you can win with Overs before the lines adjust to warmer temperatures.Comment -
Laker_crazyRestricted User
- 02-08-09
- 9669
#908Good luck bro on your mlb season,mine hasen't started too good going 1-9 in my plays so far,but i hope to get some units back with some wins on my card,glad to see you are blue jays too...looks good for the moment...hope we cash :-)Comment -
PAYTON20SBR Hall of Famer
- 02-02-10
- 5217
#909The Jays are golden. Mariners are such trash haha. Parlay the Mariners's opponent with the under every game and you'll make cheese!
Does anyone like Lincecum tonight @ Dbacks for -168??? Looking good to meComment -
lakerboySBR Aristocracy
- 04-02-09
- 94379
#910
Also had pads rl +180 for 1.5 units that lost 2 nights ago.
Overall Record 65-85-7 -0.36
Will improve once NBA and NHL and World cup ends.Comment
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