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Thanks for The input. I'm looking forward to it though.Comment -
One of our favorite'hidden' indicators for quality in all sports is road performance. There are some teams that create illusions about how good they are because they know how to run up the score at home. This is true in all sports.
We emphasize it a lot more in football and college basketball because that's where the biggest illusions lie. It's very easy for a college football or college basketball team to post great home margins in the first quarter of their seasons because of easy schedules. That may mean NOTHING once the heart of the schedule arrives. Teams who are performing well on the road deserve more respect.
In pro basketball and football, there are usually some teams that save their best ball for the home crowd...or they just enjoy the local conditions better. Whatever. Once it's crunch time, that advantage usually disappears. Pro teams who get the job done on the road are much more likely to win big games for you, and to thrive in the postseason.
Major League Baseball has a very long season, and it's not a sport where it's easy to pad your schedule. So...what you see is what you get much of the time. We still believe you should study road records to get a true sense of all the teams. And, in years like this, what you learn can help you find value winners, and AVOID teams that seem like value but who can't actually get the job done.
We were going through the road records in baseball this weekend. What jumped out at us was how few teams had posted winning records. You probably know that Tampa Bay has been GREAT this year on the road (and they won again Sunday in Texas). How many other teams have winning records on the road through Sunday action?
Tampa Bay 22-8
Boston 15-11
Toronto 16-11
San Diego 15-11
Cincinnati 14-13
NY Yankees 16-15
Philadelphia 15-14
There are 30 teams in the majors. Only six besides Tampa Bay have winning records on the road. And, three of those barely qualify at one game over .500. Amazingly, only four teams out of 30 are more than three games over. 500 on the road!
Why does this matter?
*If you have a weakness for short road favorites, Tampa Bay is probably winning for you but everyone else is losing! The'powerful' Yankees are only 16-15 on the road after dropping a series in Toronto this weekend. Defending National League champion Philadelphia is barely treading water straight up, which means they're not doing any damage against the moneylines.
*If you're trying to grind out a profit with road underdogs, visitors just aren't winning enough to make it worth your while. A lot of'classic' old school type handicappers are struggling this year because the sport is grinding them up instead of vice versa!'Systems' and'angles' that emphasize'value' road underdogs are down so far that it will take a hot few months just to get back to even. And, it's going to take a hot few months for teams that haven't figured out how to win on the road yet in 2010!
*If you like playing teams on winning streaks, a lot of winning streaks are ending on the road because hardly anyone can string together victories. You can't do much damage with this approach if it's win one, lose one, or win one lose two.
Over the long history of baseball betting, the value has tended to be with underdogs...and that value was often a result of road teams performing better than the public realized. This year has been tough for road bettors unless they were able to time everything just right with a lot of different teams. Sure, Tampa Bay's been obvious. Did anyone start the year planning on taking San Diego whenever they travelled?
Let's run through the rest of the road performances so you can see the full scope. It's not like it's a disaster across baseball. Just a lot of mediocrity, with more disasters than you may have realized.
NEAR THE .500 MARK ON THE ROAD
Minnesota 15-15
St. Louis 14-14
LA Dodgers 13-14
LA Angels 14-15
San Francisco 11-14
It was a short list of teams over .500...and it's a fairly short list knocking on the door! Only four other teams are within a game of .500 or sitting on it. San Francisco sits in the top half of the league with that unimposing 11-14 mark. It's a fact of life this year that playing .500 ball on the road makes you a playoff contender. That used to fall just short. (If you go 41-40 at home, it takes 54-27 at home to get you to 95 wins...tall order!).
PRETTY BAD ON THE ROAD
Florida 11-15
Chicago White Sox 11-15
Kansas City 12-16
Colorado 14-18
Atlanta 14-18
Milwaukee 14-18
Detroit 12-17
Oakland 11-17
Texas 10-16
There are some decent teams in the mix here. We have playoff contenders with Atlanta, Detroit, and the two AL West teams. Colorado's always a threat. A lot of these teams are doing damage at home, but not scaring anybody on the road. We're guessing that many of you having losing seasons on your own are suffering headaches with this collection of teams. They look like value on the road...but just aren't getting the job done. (Note that Milwaukee played Sunday Night after publication deadlines. Adding in their prime time result at St. Louis won't move them out of this category either way.)
ABYSMAL ON THE ROAD
Houston 8-15
Chicago Cubs 11-18
Washington 12-19
Cleveland 13-20
Seattle 7-17
NY Mets 8-18
Pittsburgh 9-19
Arizona 9-22
Baltimore 6-25
Houston's had a horrible season. Did you realize that a whole slew of teams were as bad as the Astros or worse on the road? Washington's storybook season isn't so storybook. The Mets are playing like they're the Pirates on the road, but are one of the best home teams in the sport right now. Almost a third of the majors grade out as'abysmal.' And, the list may grow in another week depending on what some of those just above the list do in the coming days.
You'd better LOVE some of these teams before taking any flyers on the road with them. We're not saying to NEVER bet a road team. Just be sure you've got quality, a top notch pitcher, and some sort of track record away from home with that guy on the mound. You may love road warriors in old movies or classic wrestling highlights. They're not very prominent in Major League Baseball right now!Comment -
Yanks -1.5 against the O's again today. CCs smoked em twice this year already.Comment -
Pittsburgh is a very poor road team as they are batting just .237 and even less against righties at a .232 mark. Washington certainly likes to play in front of the home fans as they bat .287 in Washington. Hernandez has a 5-1 TSR with a 1.73 ERA in home starts this season.Comment -
Me as well. btw I wasn't trying to bash your play if you are playing the US. There are value plays and there are "vegas is begging you to take this" plays. This is the latter in my opinion. I'd say for the US to win it'd have to be 2-1 (possibly 3-2), but I just don't see our defense holding Eng to 1 or 2 goals to give us a chance to win.Comment -
The under has cashed in six of New York's last seven home games. The under is 11-4-1 in San Diego's last 16 road games.Comment -
Not really in love with the chalk, but due to the line movement and a little more evaluation I'm adding to the Redsox ml for a total of 3.75 units on the game.
Redsox ml -157 (1.5x)
Redsox ml -165 (0.75x)
Redsox -1.5rl (1.5x)Comment -
I will be on te Redsox RL also Tyler. I've been looking at that game since last night.Comment -
Good catch Tyler...i pulled it off a page...so may be a misprint......Comment -
Redsox RL looks yummyyy
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Agreed, I really like the Red Sox here, Clay has actually been one of the starting pitchers on this rotation that I trust(the other being Lester), and going up against Masterson who's 1-5 so far this year. Also, I saw some ridiculous stat of Red Sox starting pitchers on the road lately, ERA below 1, and undefeated on the road I think in the last 10 games or something.
Who do you guys think will win the whole world cup? I got argentina.Comment -
Did Bangladesh make the World Cup?Comment -
I'm on my phone so I can't quote but I appreciate your Input TD. I was just throwing it out there. Haven't pulled the trigger in the U.S. Yet but it is tempting. I wouldn't be surprised if it was a draw though. I like Spain to win it.Comment -
the Netherlands will winComment -
You can get USA at +1 for even money..is that worth a small play?Comment -
No.
All teams and good info' for world cup.
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with u guys on the redsox rl...lets get it...not gonna lay the chalk on the sox thoughComment -
They made the Cricket World cup
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Whats your feeling on the hockey tonight Paco... Any strong vibes on anything in that game ?Comment -
Minny two in a row tonight?Comment
