My Sports

[Nomadik]

I was refering to your post that said "Super BIG on Rangers 2nite!"

Maybe that means, not much riding on it idk lol

I DO have quite a bit on the Rangers "Tyler". Just not as much as my early Cubs play. Texas wins this game bank it...POW!!

[Tommy_de1st]

Well this isn't a good start. -1.5x to start. We will be +5x by nights end though.

And how you gonna do that?

[TylerDurden]

Looks like a good under play to me. According to weather.com the wind's blowing in from Right-Center and neither team looks promising to put up big runs. What do you think, Tyler?

I always hate taking Tex unders as they seem to not hit the broad side of a barn, or put up like 9 runs, but that may be a good play. The total is set and 9 and the team totals are at 4 and 4.5(with the under being juiced). This seems somewhat odd to me, def worth taking a close look at though, maybe seeing what late money does.

[baazigar]

anyone leaning giants today?

[8ArIvd5]

might I ask why so big? I have a small lean on Texas simply because Seattle is not a good road team, but Lee has been solid on the mound and consistently pitches 7-8 innings which tells me to stay away.

Looks like a good under play to me. According to weather.com the wind's blowing in from Right-Center and neither team looks promising to put up big runs. What do you think, Tyler?

[Pick of Destiny]

Dodgers ML

[Nomadik]

what sportsbook Nomadik/

The M Resort. I live in Anthem in Henderson about 12 minutes from the place. Has a nice book. That's where I make most of my plays if I'm not placing them online.

[TylerDurden]

I DO have quite a bit on the Rangers "Tyler". Just not as much as my early Cubs play. Texas wins this game bank it...POW!!

umm.. good incite. care to elaborate on why? and again are you not concerned with Lee consistently pitching 7-8 solid innings?

[TylerDurden]

Dodgers ML

I'm starting to like this more and more.

[Nomadik]

anyone leaning giants today?

I love the Giants as that's my team, but I just can't bring myself to bet on them too often, and this time is no different. I will on occasion, but I just don't like them on the road facing a good Cinci team. Zito has been pitching well though. However, the bats are still lacking, I hate to say. With that said I hope they win for you if you bet them.

[iboelvis]

not any pick from paco tonight?

colarado -1,5
reds ml
angels over 8,5

I Lıke those games!!!!

[TylerDurden]

Braves ml +115 (1.5x)
Rockies ml -175 (0.75x)

[robert_wrath]

yeah got a few, kind of a weak card with a lot of tossup games imo though. Atlanta looks solid, and I'm liking the dodgers first five as monasterious looks good for a limited amount of innings, especially with STL playing late and traveling cross-country to LA.

TylerDurden, I love the Braves in this spot however am a bit hesitant to make the play. The big issue I have is Why is Atlanta a heavy Underdog on RunLine +1 1/2 (-185) ? Any input on the matter would be Graciously Respected. Thanx in Advance

[Nomadik]

I'm starting to like this more and more.

Yeah I'm liking ATL and the Dodges in the later games. I would even be so inclined to take the Dodgers on the RL...maybe. Cards bats have cooled a bit IMO.

[TylerDurden]

TylerDurden, I love the Braves in this spot however am a bit hesitant to make the play. The big issue I have is Why is Atlanta a heavy Underdog on RunLine +1 1/2 (-185) ? Any input on the matter would be Graciously Respected. Thanx in Advance

+115 is not really a heavy underdog. If they were a heavy underdog the +1.5rl would not be juiced as much (meaning they are less likely to win be within 1 run). The high juice on the +1.5 rl tells me vegas expects this to be a close game (within 1 run), and I love the Braves in a this spot if the game is close. At least that's my take on it, could be wrong.

[robert_wrath]

+115 is not really a heavy underdog. If they were a heavy underdog the +1.5rl would not be juiced as much (meaning they are less likely to win be within 1 run). The high juice on the +1.5 rl tells me vegas expects this to be a close game (within 1 run), and I love the Braves in a this spot if the game is close. At least that's my take on it, could be wrong.

Much appreciated, Thanx.

[lakerboy]

fukk baseball. i have to bet it tonight though.

[Nomadik]

TylerDurden, I love the Braves in this spot however am a bit hesitant to make the play. The big issue I have is Why is Atlanta a heavy Underdog on RunLine +1 1/2 (-185) ? Any input on the matter would be Graciously Respected. Thanx in Advance

FYI

"The Arizona Diamondbacks are 13-13 at home this season and are solid favorites to beat the Atlanta Braves who are 13-18 on the road this season. Diamondbacks' starter Dan Haren is forecasted to have a better game than Braves' starter Derek Lowe. Dan Haren has a 59% chance of having a Quality Start (QS) while Derek Lowe has a 42% chance of a QS. If Dan Haren has a quality start the Diamondbacks has a 76% chance of winning. The most productive batter for the Arizona Diamondbacks is Kelly Johnson who averaged 2.15 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 35% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Diamondbacks have a 73% chance of winning. The most productive batter for the Atlanta Braves is Martin Prado who averaged 2.1 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 34% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Braves have a 55% chance of winning."

SIDE VALUE (2010 SEASON) - Atlanta Braves Road Games: 17-14, 55% -170 Arizona Diamondbacks Home Games: 15-11, 58% 135 SIDE VALUE (PAST 30 DAYS) - Atlanta Braves Road Games: 6-8, 43% -452 Arizona Diamondbacks Home Games: 8-5, 62% +213
MONEY LINE (2010 SEASON) - Atlanta Braves Road Games: 18-13, 58% +44 Arizona Diamondbacks Home Games: 18-8, 69% 558 MONEY LINE (PAST 30 DAYS) - Atlanta Braves Road Games: 8-6, 57% -20 Arizona Diamondbacks Home Games: 8-5, 62% +112
OVER-UNDER RECORD (2010 SEASON) - Atlanta Braves Road Games: 15-9, 62% + 465 Arizona Diamondbacks Home Games: 12-12, 50% -108 OVER-UNDER RECORD (PAST 30 DAYS) - Atlanta Braves Road Games: 10-4, 71% + 510 Arizona Diamondbacks Home Games: 8-5, 62% + 228

[TylerDurden]

fukk baseball. i have to bet it tonight though.

who you liking tonight LB?

[Lanncer]

I agree, baseball is fuqin rough

[TylerDurden]

Dodgers first five -151 (0.5x)

[steelcity]

Nomadik- M's a nice place I live on the other side in Southern Highlands so I make most of my plays there as well. Gr8 stats on the ATL game, you put that together yourself?

[baazigar]

I love the Giants as that's my team, but I just can't bring myself to bet on them too often, and this time is no different. I will on occasion, but I just don't like them on the road facing a good Cinci team. Zito has been pitching well though. However, the bats are still lacking, I hate to say. With that said I hope they win for you if you bet them.

thanks man. i know cinci is hot but im going with a nice feel with the giants.

them cards and lakers Fd us good last night.

[nevarc]

Seattle Mariners o Texas Rangers @evens
Boston Red Sox @ Cleveland Indians o9.0 @evens
Atlanta Braves @ Arizona Diamondbacks u9.0 @4/5

Any input on these plays lads?

[memo99]

i've got a 4-3 final in my head for the LAA/OAK game i'm going A's and the under 8.5 for 1X each

[JR007]

ONLY LAY 1.5 RUNS IN
TRUE BLOWOUT SITUATIONS
There's been a lot of talk amongst squares this week about laying 1.5 runs in Major League Baseball. This if often a popular strategy for people who aren't very familiar with baseball betting. It can work if you're VERY picky. Most bettors tend to lose a lot more than they win with the approach.
Here's why it's become such a hot topic:
*The Yankees had a GREAT run this year of winning games by more than one run. Sunday's tight decision at Toronto has been the exception (only the fourth one-run win for the Yanks all year out of 35 victories). Squares love betting on the Yankees. Those who were doing this saw it WORK for a few weeks, and couldn't shut up about it.
*Baltimore had gotten so bad that they were getting blown out on a daily basis. Squares love betting against horrible teams...and this approach was working as well. Only 10 of Baltimore's 41 losses through the weekend have been by one run.
*We've reached the point of the season when lines start to get steep all over the card. Contenders in both leagues are often -200 or more at home against opponents who have been losing for two months. Whenever lines get that high, squares start trying to come up with ways to bet the powers without having to lay high prices.
*Temperatures started rising across America. Hot weather often leads to high scoring games...which means fewer of those pitcher's duels that end 2-1 or 3-2. It's easier to 'get away' with laying 1.5 runs in higher scoring environments.
Now, I'm not one to dissuade anybody from a winning approach right while it's working. Just be careful with this. Remember why the minus 1.5 run lines were instituted in sportsbooks in the first place.
*Sportsbooks want action...and want to make sure bettors take the worst of it. We didn't used to have -1.5 run lines. Now we do. They were installed because they make money for sportsbooks not for bettors!
*They make money for sportsbooks because bettors don't realize how common close games are in baseball. They don't have to happen that often to make this a losing bet for you. Games are priced to take advantage of this public ignorance.

*Squares also don't realize how much additional action hurts them. Imagine a game that's priced at -240 on the regular moneyline. Some squares will make the bet. But most will pass the game. Make it -1.5 runs at a cheaper moneyline, and a bunch of extra guys will come in to take a shot. Let's say the favorite loses outright. In the past, sportsbooks would make a little bit from the small number of bettors who got involved. Now, they make A LOT because MORE bettors are involved. You'll hear squares saying 'Well, I saved myself some money by betting on the run line because I didn't have to lose the -240.' That's true...but you probably just lost a game you weren't going to bet before. That wasn't smart it was dumb! Increasing your action when you're taking the worst of it isn't smart at all. Sportsbooks learned that installing the minus 1.5 run lines encouraged squares to make more bad bets.
Here's how sharps generally play the runlines in Vegas and Reno:
*They TAKE the 1.5 runs rather than laying them, knowing that the prices take advantage of public ignorance. Sharps love fading the public. One of the few times you'll see sharps lay odds is with a +1.5 run line in a pitcher's park. They'll lay -160 or -180 when getting +1.5 runs because the odds favor a tight game. Advantage players have an edge there.
*They focus on TAKING the 1.5 runs in PITCHER'S parks where run production is going to be lower. If the game Over/Under is 7 runs...you're looking at a lot of tight finishes. It typically takes TWO decent pitchers for a total to be that low. A 4-3 finish is the best expectation.
*If they're going to lay 1.5 runs, they'll do it with UNDERDOG payoffs in high scoring environments. Many of you think about moving a -220 favorite down to something more affordable. Sharps think about taking a team that was -130 on the regular line and going for the underdog payoff if the win by more than 1.5 runs. There are so many blowouts in hitter's parks like Texas, Colorado, etc...that you can grind out a profit this way. Remember, you only have to go 50/50 on your picks to win money with underdog payoffs in play.
*Occasionally you'll see a sharp move a big favorite down to something more affordable. They'll only do this though, with a top notch offense in their corner...and a very weak pitcher on the opponent.
I encourage you to look for value with these baseball propositions. Just don't fall into the square trap of thinking you're 'saving money' by laying -1.5 runs. That one run is more valuable than you think. And, you don't want to be betting games you shouldn't be touching with a 10-foot pole anyway!

[JR007]

FYI...Selita Ebanks...Victoria secret model..Ryan Howards babe

[Tower]

Here's what I'm on for the night boys, lets get that money!! GL on your plays!

Bos/Cle O9 (1x)
SF/Cin O8 (1x)
LAA/Oak O8.5 (1x)
ARI/ATL O9 (1.5)
Oak -125 (.5x)
Col -165 (.5x)
Tex +105 (.5x)
Cin -135 (.5x)

[lakerboy]

who you liking tonight LB?

i like under 9 in texas

[SEAHAWKHARRY]

Im going with
col ml
texas under 9
so far

[Mikail]

FYI...Selita Ebanks...Victoria secret model..Ryan Howards babe

Selita Ebanks. She is a babe. Props to Howard. JR thanks for the post clarifying the RL very informative.

[broadway6]

what up people???? need to win some cash tonight. Paco, do you have some winners?

[TylerDurden]

i like under 9 in texas

nice, we were talking about that play earlier. think I'm liking that as well, Lee has been sharp and can put up solid innings deep into the game, and all their meetings this year except for one have been 9 or less. looks solid.

[No coincidences]

fukk baseball. i have to bet it tonight though.

I'm in the same boat as you. As an action junkie, I have no choice. But frankly, I hate baseball.

[MidgetTossers]

texas for 5x...no reasoning other than the fact that i just believe they will win this game...sounds stupid i know but i am stupid...not afraid of cliff lee at all...he can pitch a complete game for all i care, JUST LOSE!!...GO RANGERS!!!!!!!!