Reverend's 2010 MLB

[diegoelmestre]

Lets go Boston ^^

Keep doing fantastic work

[handicapper03]

come on boston -1.5! hit em with the flex!!!

[pistolero]

balls2wall
Sorry for not knowing what you know... but you say you calculate it, why? what is the benefit of calculating it? when you go to any casino, online or whatever, all of them are -1.5 odds, so why do you that math? as I said, I am sorry for asking this, I don't quite understand it. I know there are some posts in the forum about the calculation, but still dont know the use of it
greetings

[NastyStuff]

Nice job yesterday by Boston... if I have this right...it looks like STL is the Fav for today on an "A" bet...is that correct?

[JVP3122]

balls2wall
Sorry for not knowing what you know... but you say you calculate it, why? what is the benefit of calculating it? when you go to any casino, online or whatever, all of them are -1.5 odds, so why do you that math? as I said, I am sorry for asking this, I don't quite understand it. I know there are some posts in the forum about the calculation, but still dont know the use of it
greetings

There's not really any math that he does. Like he said, there is a -1RL calculator that has been posted on a couple of forums, including this one. I'm not sure if this was part of the reason for your post, but he/we calculate the -1RL for two reasons. One of them is to reduce the juice on the biggest favorite, and the second is so that if there's a 1-run win by said favorite, then it's just a push instead of a loss, which it would be by just going with the -1.5 RL.

[NastyStuff]

There's not really any math that he does. Like he said, there is a -1RL calculator that has been posted on a couple of forums, including this one. I'm not sure if this was part of the reason for your post, but he/we calculate the -1RL for two reasons. One of them is to reduce the juice on the biggest favorite, and the second is so that if there's a 1-run win by said favorite, then it's just a push instead of a loss, which it would be by just going with the -1.5 RL.

It would be nice to know how many times the highest daily FAV has won on the "A" bet this season and how many times it has won by 2 so that the - 1R wasn't a push on the bet... if anyone has those stats they would be very helpful to see the percentage return on betting it "straight-up" vs. the "- 1rl" percentage return...as well we could do a little homework on which way is the best way to go after this...do a chase on the daily FAV as a straight up bet or do the -1RL...because it returns enough consistently to go that route....sorry if this is a noob train of thought...but I am really curious as to what those numbers would be.

[JVP3122]

It would be nice to know how many times the highest daily FAV has won on the "A" bet this season and how many times it has won by 2 so that the - 1R wasn't a push on the bet... if anyone has those stats they would be very helpful to see the percentage return on betting it "straight-up" vs. the "- 1rl" percentage return...as well we could do a little homework on which way is the best way to go after this...do a chase on the daily FAV as a straight up bet or do the -1RL...because it returns enough consistently to go that route....sorry if this is a noob train of thought...but I am really curious as to what those numbers would be.

B2W has been cool enough to mark down when the Fav bet has won, but I don't recall Rev including that much detail. You can start going back through the pages to see how it's done, though. All of the info is in this forum. The reason that the -1RL is used is strictly to keep the juice down. Say, for simplicity's sake, that the ML is -200, and the RL is +100, making the -1RL odds -150. Say you lose the A bet, so you're behind 1.5 units instead of 2 on the ML. If, God forbid, we end up getting to a C bet on the series, you'll be laying 14.06 units if you stuck with the -1RL, whereas strictly with the ML you'd be laying 27 units. It adds up quickly with the juice. If you've got the cash to be able to afford going through the ML instead of the RL then you might as well try it, but I'd make my starting wager to win 0.5 units so it's not ridiculously expensive. The way I play it is if the game is a push then I just pretend that game never happened. If it's a push on the B bet, then I'll just treat the next day's game as the B bet.

[balls2wall]

balls2wall
Sorry for not knowing what you know... but you say you calculate it, why? what is the benefit of calculating it? when you go to any casino, online or whatever, all of them are -1.5 odds, so why do you that math? as I said, I am sorry for asking this, I don't quite understand it. I know there are some posts in the forum about the calculation, but still dont know the use of it
greetings

JVP did a great job of summing it up a few posts back


thanks JVP

[balls2wall]

B2W has been cool enough to mark down when the Fav bet has won, but I don't recall Rev including that much detail. You can start going back through the pages to see how it's done, though. All of the info is in this forum. The reason that the -1RL is used is strictly to keep the juice down. Say, for simplicity's sake, that the ML is -200, and the RL is +100, making the -1RL odds -150. Say you lose the A bet, so you're behind 1.5 units instead of 2 on the ML. If, God forbid, we end up getting to a C bet on the series, you'll be laying 14.06 units if you stuck with the -1RL, whereas strictly with the ML you'd be laying 27 units. It adds up quickly with the juice. If you've got the cash to be able to afford going through the ML instead of the RL then you might as well try it, but I'd make my starting wager to win 0.5 units so it's not ridiculously expensive. The way I play it is if the game is a push then I just pretend that game never happened. If it's a push on the B bet, then I'll just treat the next day's game as the B bet.

Yeah, I don't think I would ever do this chase on the ML. We had a little stretch of back to back -300 games which could get scary quickly. In fact, going to the C and D bets on the -1rl is scary enough.


I haven't been playing this chase in a while, but I have played many of the plays individually and I have used the -1rl on all of them I believe except for a couple of -1.5s.

[balls2wall]

Substitute FAV System Record


9-0 (+9 units)

A: 6
B: 3
C: 0
D: 0
Loss: 0



REV's FAV System Record

19-0 (+25 units)

[balls2wall]

Sunday FAV System Play



A BET: STL -1RL (-166) risking 1.66 units to win 1 unit

[NastyStuff]

B2W has been cool enough to mark down when the Fav bet has won, but I don't recall Rev including that much detail. You can start going back through the pages to see how it's done, though. All of the info is in this forum. The reason that the -1RL is used is strictly to keep the juice down. Say, for simplicity's sake, that the ML is -200, and the RL is +100, making the -1RL odds -150. Say you lose the A bet, so you're behind 1.5 units instead of 2 on the ML. If, God forbid, we end up getting to a C bet on the series, you'll be laying 14.06 units if you stuck with the -1RL, whereas strictly with the ML you'd be laying 27 units. It adds up quickly with the juice. If you've got the cash to be able to afford going through the ML instead of the RL then you might as well try it, but I'd make my starting wager to win 0.5 units so it's not ridiculously expensive. The way I play it is if the game is a push then I just pretend that game never happened. If it's a push on the B bet, then I'll just treat the next day's game as the B bet.

This is why they pay you the big bucks in here!!!!.......thanks for your help...this makes alot of sense...especially when you treat the push bets as if they didn't happen and move on with the chase...again thanks for taking the time to help me....it's appreciated!

[df1000]

if im going by the a.b.c method, then san diego is a lock for today.

[sidewinder66]

hope STL gets it done. I will surely follow this thread in the future

[TopDog]

Come on St. Louis.

[JVP3122]

If I ever run into Matt Holliday I'm going to punch him in the fvcking head. Two out of the last three innings he has a situation where a base hit drives in a run and he gets such garbage swings on the ball.

[DustyDiamond]

Looks to be the Phillies, today opened at -180 for a B bet

[NastyStuff]

Yes it looks like Philly...but they haven't posted the opening odds for the STL/LAD game yet...so we have to wait and see if those odds come out higher than Philly.

[balls2wall]

Monday FAV System Play



B Bet: PHI -1 (-127) risking 3.39 units to win 2.66 units (1 unit profit)

[df1000]

ty san diego

[df1000]

ty for todays fav update

[diegoelmestre]

hope Phillies get job done :s I dont like C bets very much :s

[DustyDiamond]

Looks to be the Yankees, opened at -210 for a C bet

[NastyStuff]

Looks to be the Yankees, opened at -210 for a C bet

Yes...but we should be okay today on this one...they're playing Baltimore....'nuff said...

[balls2wall]

before yesterday's games I was thinking this system is probably not best designed for days that have very few games...


on to the C bet




Tuesday FAV System Play


C Bet: NYY -1RL (-175) risking 10.6 units to win 6.05 units (1 unit profit)

[df1000]

i am curious how this new kid will pitch today for washington.

[docvinny]

i haven't checked in here since about the time reverend quit posting, how are things going?

[Darremannen]

before yesterday's games I was thinking this system is probably not best designed for days that have very few games...


on to the C bet
A big bet on yankkees?



Tuesday FAV System Play


C Bet: NYY -1RL (-175) risking 10.6 units to win 6.05 units (1 unit profit)

This is a big play?

[JVP3122]

before yesterday's games I was thinking this system is probably not best designed for days that have very few games...


on to the C bet




Tuesday FAV System Play


C Bet: NYY -1RL (-175) risking 10.6 units to win 6.05 units (1 unit profit)

I know what you're saying about a small number of games but I would think that's for days with four games. I just think the books had it wrong with Philly being the biggest fav.

[balls2wall]

i am curious how this new kid will pitch today for washington.

surely there will be some butterflies


they say he has been dominant in the minors

[balls2wall]

i haven't checked in here since about the time reverend quit posting, how are things going?

good so far


record is near the top of this page


9-0 so far since REV


this is the first c bet...

[balls2wall]

This is a big play?

yeah, we don't want to see the dreaded D bet...

[balls2wall]

I know what you're saying about a small number of games but I would think that's for days with four games. I just think the books had it wrong with Philly being the biggest fav.

Yeah, I agree


in fact, if there is a day with only 4 or 5 games I may pass on the official play unless it looks good

[dynamitappletini]

DAMN! I have to pass on that one.... I'm pretty big on RL O's.... will have to move the C bet to the new series or the D bet... we'll see...

[TNT28]

Yeh this is a scary bet today cuz PiMike has a double system play on the O's +1.5