Season to be inside this thread
Reverend's Betting Strategies and Bankroll Management
Intro
I will be playing 2 different systems this season and each system also has a slight variation to it, giving us 4 systems that will come into play. I have done countless hours of backtesting over the fall and winter and feel very confident about what will be played inside this thread. Both systems use a chase style of betting, and this is not for everybody. The chase betting progression will have you risking a large number of units on C and D bets to win a much smaller amount. With that on the table, both of these systems have a high percentage of winners in the A and B bets, so hopefully we will not be stretched out to many times this season.
I have never been a big poster on forums, but I thought I would give it a go this season to offer some insight, share my research and ideas, and gain some accountability from the guys who will follow along and contribute in this thread. I hope we can build a solid following in here and bounce ideas and thoughts off of each other throughout the season.
I have never been a big "systems" type bettor. I do not like being bound by hard and fast rules at all times. I like to have the option to lay off of and pick up certain bets without feeling bad about it. I am a huge baseball fan and feel as if I know the game very well, so I like the option to have some wiggle room. With that being said, a few close friends pointed out a few interesting MLB trends and that is when I began looking into these 2 systems. So, I will do my best to outline these systems, but just know that I always have the option to pass up a series or game.
Many are already up-to-date on the 2 systems that will be played, so if I do not cover every aspect of it, or you have questions, please ask. I am not an "ego" guy, and I love the dialogue over this stuff, so ask away as questions arise. I only ask that we try and keep this thread free from negative detractors. I know they will surface, but if you disagree with something in here, just be civil and kind. We are each risking our own money and at the end of the day, we only have to answer to ourselves about the decisions we make.
THE SERIES SYSTEM
The Series System is going to be our bread and butter inside this thread. The basic idea of this system is that we are betting that certain teams will NOT get swept at home as well as betting that certain teams will NOT sweep on the road. This system looks at 3 and 4 game series only (no 2 game series) and ends on the last day of August (no September series).
-What makes this system unique is that you have to identify these teams on the fly during the season. That is what this thread is for, we want quality discussion on teams and match-ups. I have gone back over the past 4 years for each team and tried to do this, but knowing that teams change from year to year, we will be making these decisions on a week by week basis.
-Another key component is the issue of pitching match-ups. This is vital to my capping, so if a top tier team is playing a 3 game home series in which we would usually be backing them, but they are throwing their 3-5 pitchers, then we might be laying off of that series. It just depends. That is exactly why I want wiggle room in these plays from week to week.
-Our goal in this system is to not lose a series the entire year. I will be using a progressive money management method on this system. But again, I am not going to be locked in to it exactly. I will always post my picks in BOLD and list how many units I am trying to win on each play. But the general progression will be after every 20 games won, I will increase my "units to be won" by 50%. After looking at the entire season, there are over 200 series that could fall into this system. In trying to be conservative, I am shooting for 100 wins, but could easily see 150 wins. I will list the betting progression below (beginning at $100/Unit):
Games 1-20
Betting to win $100 per series
After 20 wins: +$2,000
Games 21-40
Betting to win $150 per series
After 20 wins: +$3,000
Games 41-60
Betting to win $225 per series
After 20 wins: +$4,500
Games 61-80
Betting to win $325 per series
After 20 wins: +$6,500
Games 81-100
Betting to win $500 per series
After 20 wins: +$10,000
Games 101-120
Betting to win $700 per series
After 20 wins: +$14,000
Games 121-140
Betting to win $1000 per series
After 20 wins: +$20,000
Games 141-150
Betting to win $1500 per series
After 10 wins: +$15,000
After 150 Wins: Profit of $75,000
As you can see, the potential is there. If you are not a $100 bettor, just simply divide the numbers by how much you are playing for. What I found to be true over the last 4 seasons, was that June-August are the really great months for this system. I imagine it is because the top tier teams are really playing well by then, and the lowest tier teams have realized that they have no hope and are just trying to get through the summer. So this lines up perfectly with our progression, as we will be betting more per unit through the summer months.
THE SITUATIONAL SYSTEM
The Situational System is played in the exact same fashion as the Series System above, but here we will not be betting on distinct 3 or 4 games series always, but we will be looking for favorable 3-4 game stretches where I believe a team will get at least 1 win. This comes in 2 different variations:
1) You have a top tier team playing on the road and you believe they will get at least 1 win during the series. This was the case with 1 of my first plays where Philly opened the season on the road at Washington. As well as Boston playing their 2nd series as KC.
2) You have a stretch of games that you like and want to play it as a situational chase. This is a little more subjective, and because of that, I will always try to list out my reasons and thinking behind these picks. Many times these plays will revolve around a team that has 6 straight home or road games. For instance, I had a play on Arizona in their first game of the season against SD (very bad team). I won that play, but Arizona still had 2 more games against SD and then PIT came to town for 3 games. So, I had Arizona playing 2 of the worst teams in the league. I could have waited for the PIT series for another "Series System" play, but I decided to play them in game 2 vs. SD and was prepared to chase into the PIT series if necessary. I ended up winning game 3 of the SD series and then played Arizona in a normal "Series System" play against PIT which we won on the B bet. So instead of winning 2 units in Arizona's first 2 series, we won 3 units. These will not be as common, but they will pop up throughout the season.
I will be combing these 2 systems in terms of the progressive money management system. So, once I have 20 wins combined between these 2, I will be increasing my unit size. But I will try and keep the records for each separate.
THE FAV SYSTEM
The FAV System is a system that I will be playing on the side for less units, at least in the beginning of the season. It is based on playing the largest favorite of the day (based on the opening number) on the -1RL and chasing for 4 games. So you will have 1 bet per day using this system.
-In 2009, this system went 86-1 (+57 Units)
-In 2008, this system went 88-1 (+55 Units)
-In 2007, this system went 80-2 (+18 Units)
As you can see, this system is profitable. I am still trying to decide what type of money management program I am going to use with it, but for now, I will be flat betting this system.
-In my backtesting, I decided to see what how a system based on the 2nd highest favorite of the day would play out, and I found it was very similar to the results above. So, I may be playing this as a 2nd system on its own to try and double the Units won over the course of the season.
So that is what I will be playing in this thread. I know this is not completely comprehensive, but it gives you a foundation for what we will be playing in this thread this season. Feel free to ask questions. Also, feel free to post your thoughts and ideas as we go through the season.
Thanks,
REV
Reverend's Betting Strategies and Bankroll Management
Intro
I will be playing 2 different systems this season and each system also has a slight variation to it, giving us 4 systems that will come into play. I have done countless hours of backtesting over the fall and winter and feel very confident about what will be played inside this thread. Both systems use a chase style of betting, and this is not for everybody. The chase betting progression will have you risking a large number of units on C and D bets to win a much smaller amount. With that on the table, both of these systems have a high percentage of winners in the A and B bets, so hopefully we will not be stretched out to many times this season.
I have never been a big poster on forums, but I thought I would give it a go this season to offer some insight, share my research and ideas, and gain some accountability from the guys who will follow along and contribute in this thread. I hope we can build a solid following in here and bounce ideas and thoughts off of each other throughout the season.
I have never been a big "systems" type bettor. I do not like being bound by hard and fast rules at all times. I like to have the option to lay off of and pick up certain bets without feeling bad about it. I am a huge baseball fan and feel as if I know the game very well, so I like the option to have some wiggle room. With that being said, a few close friends pointed out a few interesting MLB trends and that is when I began looking into these 2 systems. So, I will do my best to outline these systems, but just know that I always have the option to pass up a series or game.
Many are already up-to-date on the 2 systems that will be played, so if I do not cover every aspect of it, or you have questions, please ask. I am not an "ego" guy, and I love the dialogue over this stuff, so ask away as questions arise. I only ask that we try and keep this thread free from negative detractors. I know they will surface, but if you disagree with something in here, just be civil and kind. We are each risking our own money and at the end of the day, we only have to answer to ourselves about the decisions we make.
THE SERIES SYSTEM
The Series System is going to be our bread and butter inside this thread. The basic idea of this system is that we are betting that certain teams will NOT get swept at home as well as betting that certain teams will NOT sweep on the road. This system looks at 3 and 4 game series only (no 2 game series) and ends on the last day of August (no September series).
-What makes this system unique is that you have to identify these teams on the fly during the season. That is what this thread is for, we want quality discussion on teams and match-ups. I have gone back over the past 4 years for each team and tried to do this, but knowing that teams change from year to year, we will be making these decisions on a week by week basis.
-Another key component is the issue of pitching match-ups. This is vital to my capping, so if a top tier team is playing a 3 game home series in which we would usually be backing them, but they are throwing their 3-5 pitchers, then we might be laying off of that series. It just depends. That is exactly why I want wiggle room in these plays from week to week.
-Our goal in this system is to not lose a series the entire year. I will be using a progressive money management method on this system. But again, I am not going to be locked in to it exactly. I will always post my picks in BOLD and list how many units I am trying to win on each play. But the general progression will be after every 20 games won, I will increase my "units to be won" by 50%. After looking at the entire season, there are over 200 series that could fall into this system. In trying to be conservative, I am shooting for 100 wins, but could easily see 150 wins. I will list the betting progression below (beginning at $100/Unit):
Games 1-20
Betting to win $100 per series
After 20 wins: +$2,000
Games 21-40
Betting to win $150 per series
After 20 wins: +$3,000
Games 41-60
Betting to win $225 per series
After 20 wins: +$4,500
Games 61-80
Betting to win $325 per series
After 20 wins: +$6,500
Games 81-100
Betting to win $500 per series
After 20 wins: +$10,000
Games 101-120
Betting to win $700 per series
After 20 wins: +$14,000
Games 121-140
Betting to win $1000 per series
After 20 wins: +$20,000
Games 141-150
Betting to win $1500 per series
After 10 wins: +$15,000
After 150 Wins: Profit of $75,000
As you can see, the potential is there. If you are not a $100 bettor, just simply divide the numbers by how much you are playing for. What I found to be true over the last 4 seasons, was that June-August are the really great months for this system. I imagine it is because the top tier teams are really playing well by then, and the lowest tier teams have realized that they have no hope and are just trying to get through the summer. So this lines up perfectly with our progression, as we will be betting more per unit through the summer months.
THE SITUATIONAL SYSTEM
The Situational System is played in the exact same fashion as the Series System above, but here we will not be betting on distinct 3 or 4 games series always, but we will be looking for favorable 3-4 game stretches where I believe a team will get at least 1 win. This comes in 2 different variations:
1) You have a top tier team playing on the road and you believe they will get at least 1 win during the series. This was the case with 1 of my first plays where Philly opened the season on the road at Washington. As well as Boston playing their 2nd series as KC.
2) You have a stretch of games that you like and want to play it as a situational chase. This is a little more subjective, and because of that, I will always try to list out my reasons and thinking behind these picks. Many times these plays will revolve around a team that has 6 straight home or road games. For instance, I had a play on Arizona in their first game of the season against SD (very bad team). I won that play, but Arizona still had 2 more games against SD and then PIT came to town for 3 games. So, I had Arizona playing 2 of the worst teams in the league. I could have waited for the PIT series for another "Series System" play, but I decided to play them in game 2 vs. SD and was prepared to chase into the PIT series if necessary. I ended up winning game 3 of the SD series and then played Arizona in a normal "Series System" play against PIT which we won on the B bet. So instead of winning 2 units in Arizona's first 2 series, we won 3 units. These will not be as common, but they will pop up throughout the season.
I will be combing these 2 systems in terms of the progressive money management system. So, once I have 20 wins combined between these 2, I will be increasing my unit size. But I will try and keep the records for each separate.
THE FAV SYSTEM
The FAV System is a system that I will be playing on the side for less units, at least in the beginning of the season. It is based on playing the largest favorite of the day (based on the opening number) on the -1RL and chasing for 4 games. So you will have 1 bet per day using this system.
-In 2009, this system went 86-1 (+57 Units)
-In 2008, this system went 88-1 (+55 Units)
-In 2007, this system went 80-2 (+18 Units)
As you can see, this system is profitable. I am still trying to decide what type of money management program I am going to use with it, but for now, I will be flat betting this system.
-In my backtesting, I decided to see what how a system based on the 2nd highest favorite of the day would play out, and I found it was very similar to the results above. So, I may be playing this as a 2nd system on its own to try and double the Units won over the course of the season.
So that is what I will be playing in this thread. I know this is not completely comprehensive, but it gives you a foundation for what we will be playing in this thread this season. Feel free to ask questions. Also, feel free to post your thoughts and ideas as we go through the season.
Thanks,
REV
