just a word of advice cuz u my boy, u WILL FAIL if u play every single game in baseball bro. Pick and choose. just my 2cent bro. Goodluck
Comment
GiveMeaBJ
SBR Hall of Famer
09-08-09
8449
#20
Originally posted by paco
just a word of advice cuz u my boy, u WILL FAIL if u play every single game in baseball bro. Pick and choose. just my 2cent bro. Goodluck
I hear you bro. I am not happy about the number of plays I am making but I am taking what I like. I can't pass on things I like. I already cut out several plays I orgininally was going to play today (Pirates, Rockies, Cards under). I think it being the beginning of a season I need to get back into the swing of things. I am definitley going to tr to cut down but I can't stop playing things I like. I have adjusted by playing them based on 1 unit. When I feel comfortable with the amount of games and the games I am playing I can get serious and start hitting the 3+ unit bets which is where the money needs to be made.
Thanks for the advice and the input always helps. It's something I had been thinking about since last night.
Again, here is tomorrows card with some quick analysis...
4/6/10 Orioles/Rays o8.5 (-115) (2x) Shields/Milwood here and these two teams are good for some runs. Neither is a shut down pitcher and I think there is a lot of value with this number not being 9. We saw how many games involving two great pitchers went over on the first day and I don't see why a game with two good pitchers can't go over down in Tampa.
Baltimore Orioles +155 (1x) Also like the value the O's provide tomorrow. Milwood is the better pitcher and in a game that I think is going to be an 6-4 type of game I think the O's hold the edge. Not so sure the Rays are going to continue there two year reign as a contender in the AL Eastand while I am not saying the O's are going to be better in a Milwood/Shields match up +155 is more then enough for me to back the O's.
Houston Astros -136 (2x) Wandy on the hill and he was absolutley lights out at home last year. Now he gets a soft hitting line up and while it seems that the Astros may struggle without Berkman complementing Lee in the middle of the line-up I don't expect the Stros to need much run support tomorrow. I am expecting a very good outing out of Wandy and really who knows if Zito will be in last years form or back to his old habit of getting rocked.
Colorado Rockies +116 (1x) Really think the Rockies are a team to watch here early in the season. They get tons of hits and really have one of the better line-ups in the NL. Not sold on Wolf as a #2 or the Brewers team in general. While Smith isn't who you would expect to see as a #2 and hasn't pitched for them since 2008 he was good in April and the few times I got a glimpse of him this spring he looked solid. This is more of a fade of Wolf then a play on Smith.
San Diego Padres +151 (1x) This line is providing tons of value. Edwin Jackson really isn't that good but everyone wants to remember his lights out start to the year rather then his 5.07 ERA after the All-Star Break last year or his 4.66 career ERA. I like Young a lot and have no problem backing him at this price. The Padres may struggle for runs all year but Jackson is the type of guy who on a given day can hand you runs.
Comment
paco
SBR Aristocracy
05-07-09
62873
#23
Goodluck
Comment
GiveMeaBJ
SBR Hall of Famer
09-08-09
8449
#24
4/6/10
Boston Red Sox -137 (2x)
Red Sox/Yankees o9.5 (-110) (1x)
Baltimore Orioles +200 (0.5x)
Going to tighten up tomorrow. Just enjoying the beginning of baseball right now. Tomorrow the grind will begin.
Good day today. Too many plays. Dumb chase with the Angels. Trying to be selective tomorrow.
Comment
GiveMeaBJ
SBR Hall of Famer
09-08-09
8449
#27
SF Giants -148 (3x)
First three unit play coming tomorrow and it honestly isn't a chase at all. After betting on Wandy Rodriguez last night I was able to see just how terrible the Astros are. They will be very troubled to get some runs until Lance Berkman gets back. I mean right now you have Hunter Pence as your #3 hitter and the guy hasn't had a hit yet this year. The only protection for Carlos Lee is Pedro Feliz which means at this point it is baisically up to Lee to find a hanger in order to score some runs. They were dominated by Tim Lincecum and Barry Zito and I am expecting much of the same against Matt Cain. Remember the Giants are used to these types of games, they love winning games 3-0, 2-1, etc. It is their strenght. The Astros will be hard pressed for runs and the Giants should be able to scratch out enough against Brett Myers to get them the win. Myers will hand you baserunners at times which should really benefit the Giants tomorrow.
Comment
GiveMeaBJ
SBR Hall of Famer
09-08-09
8449
#28
Florida Marlins -110 (1x)
Philadelphia Phillies -158 (1x)
White Sox -164 (1x)
Cardinals -138 (1x)
A's -123 (1x)
4/7/10
---Pirates +138 (1x)
Love Maholm, he keeps the ball in the park well and is able to put together some real nice efforts. Over the past three years April has been his best month. It's to easy to bet the Dodgers here. No way they get swept by the Pirates right? Billingsley is a bit overrated in my book and the Pirates know they can hit them. Past three years in five games against Pittsburgh he has an ERA over 7.00.
---Mets -115 (1x)
The Mets lost last night but showed a ton of heart. Down five runs and even after making a huge mistake on the bases they still came back the following inning to tie the game. I think tomorrow we see a better Met lineup. I like Pagan better leading off and I think he will get the start over Mathews. Also, I think Jacobs will either be completley out of the lineup or atleast moved out of the #4 spot where he is just killing them. Niese is going to be good this year boys, don't sleep on him. Robertson doesn't scare me.
---White Sox -136 (1x)
I like the Sox to take the series tomorrow and have been on them in the first two games. Gavin Floyd is much better at home as are the Sox. I really think the Indians are in for a tough year and I thought this should have been more in line with the first two lines of -150/-160ish.
Comment
GiveMeaBJ
SBR Hall of Famer
09-08-09
8449
#32
Running late:
SF Giants -121 (5x)
Comment
GiveMeaBJ
SBR Hall of Famer
09-08-09
8449
#33
CIN Reds -127 (2x) NY Mets -130 (2x) Reds/Cubs u9 (-110) (1x) Red Sox/Royals u 9.5 (-110) (1x)