how does baseball gambling work?

mlb · 03-22-10, 11:22 PM

Originally posted by dknight734

never bet baseball before. how does it work? is there a spread or an o/u?

Spread is called runline .. usually 1.5 .. and there is a moneyline which seems to be the more popular bet ...

there are also over/unders to be bet on as well

therber2 · 03-22-10, 11:45 PM

A lot of good proposition bets to take as well.

DrStale · 03-22-10, 11:52 PM

Stay away from RL's as a starter. They look much more appetizing than they are. Stick to ML's and totals.

scratbandit · 03-22-10, 11:58 PM

wait until a team misses two over/under and then on the third day bet the direction. either 2 unders missed in a row. or vice versa 61% win rate... real easy..

TheLock · 03-23-10, 12:17 AM

Originally posted by scratbandit

wait until a team misses two over/under and then on the third day bet the direction. either 2 unders missed in a row. or vice versa 61% win rate... real easy..

Do not listen to this guy

therber2 · 03-23-10, 12:34 AM

I am a big fan of making your own +1 RL particularly for big dogs. It is a good way to shop around, and in some cases a better bet to take.

Example. Nationals +1 +114
Line in book might be +1 for +110.

Two bets make one bet:
A. Nationals +145 risk ($46.51 to win $67.44)
B. Nationals +1.5 RL -115 ($53.49 to win $46.51)

If Nationals lose by 1 you break even.
I am not sure which books offer this, but I suppose you could beat a +or-1 RL doing it "manually."

dknight734 · 03-23-10, 09:04 AM

so it's like betting on hockey then

TheAccountant · 03-23-10, 09:08 AM

Originally posted by dknight734

so it's like betting on hockey then

The bets offered are very similiar to hockey betting.

Chi_archie · 03-23-10, 09:28 AM

stay away from runlines for the most part. find home dogs.

also no one mentioned you have the option of betting the first 5 innings only, when betting baseball. Which can be valuable if you really like a certain and their starter that day.....but hate their bullpen....

Bullpens are one of the most important things to look at in baseball betting IMO.

also, be aware that you have the option of betting a game action/listed pitchers.....

generally if i'm betting an underdog especially against a good pitcher i'll bet action...meaning if either of the pitchers get scratched and can't start at the last minute, the bet is still in action.

if i'm betting on a team BECAUSE I like their starter or because I don't like the opposing starter I make sure I select the listed pitcher option

DukeJohn · 03-23-10, 09:41 AM

Originally posted by dknight734

so it's like betting on hockey then

yes, only with higher limits

Many aspects of MLB are the same as betting in NHL. Mostly the Moneyline is bet as evident by having the highest limits; home games pull a lot of weight, and so on.

Sawyer · 03-23-10, 09:45 AM

Originally posted by scratbandit

wait until a team misses two over/under and then on the third day bet the direction. either 2 unders missed in a row. or vice versa 61% win rate... real easy..

It's not true.

Sawyer · 03-23-10, 09:49 AM

Don't bet on a team because they got a good pitcher. Starting Pitchers are overrated. Hitting & Bullpen are also important.

phillip · 03-23-10, 10:38 AM

I will really only bet dogs, or small favorites. The only way I'll take favorites is on the Run Line. Taking big favorites on the ML will kill you over the course of the season. Even the best teams only win about 55-60% of the time and the worst teams still win 40% of the time. So getting value on dogs, and minimizing juice on favorites is important.

Rixsaw · 03-23-10, 11:04 AM

Originally posted by Chi_archie

..... generally if i'm betting an underdog especially against a good pitcher i'll bet action...meaning if either of the pitchers get scratched and can't start at the last minute, the bet is still in action......

I have not thought of this one. Good point Archie.

CappinTerp · 03-23-10, 11:25 AM

dknight,good question because a lot of bettors who bet hoops or football dont bet baseball because thet dont understand the way it works and are afraid to ask.! Let me tell you one thing, I have been betting baseball for 30 years. In the " old days" (before internet) I HAD 3 bookies in NYC. Each and every year after baseball season was over they all would say the same thing to me.! " We should of closed up for baseball season, we gave eveything back from football season." Dont get me wrong,it takes a lot of work and understanding, but you can make $. For ex. in baseball, I bet between $ 50 - $ 200 a game,bet a lot of dogs , use reverses ,never lay more than -150 and when betting heavy favs,I LAY -1.5 RUNS and take back a small price. Any way I have made about 15k + each season 4 out of the last 5 years. Not kidding or braging, just straight. GL

dknight734 · 03-23-10, 11:35 AM

Originally posted by CappinTerp

dknight,good question because a lot of bettors who bet hoops or football dont bet baseball because thet dont understand the way it works and are afraid to ask.! Let me tell you one thing, I have been betting baseball for 30 years. In the " old days" (before internet) I HAD 3 bookies in NYC. Each and every year after baseball season was over they all would say the same thing to me.! " We should of closed up for baseball season, we gave eveything back from football season." Dont get me wrong,it takes a lot of work and understanding, but you can make $. For ex. in baseball, I bet between $ 50 - $ 200 a game,bet a lot of dogs , use reverses ,never lay more than -150 and when betting heavy favs,I LAY -1.5 RUNS and take back a small price. Any way I have made about 15k + each season 4 out of the last 5 years. Not kidding or braging, just straight. GL

sounds good send me some picks

CappinTerp · 03-23-10, 12:12 PM

Rixsaw, you are rite to a point, dont foget when you bet "action" and a pitcher is scratched the line is adjusted.!!

Mazza · 03-23-10, 12:27 PM

Originally posted by therber2

A lot of good proposition bets to take as well.

What is a proposition bet

therber2 · 03-23-10, 05:02 PM

Originally posted by Mazza

What is a proposition bet

It is pretty much the odd bets that are often specific to certain books.

Example:

Will there be a run in the 1st inning?
Yes -110
No-115

Which team will score first?

therber2 · 03-23-10, 05:09 PM

Come up with your own betting formula with weighted factors.

Example:

Team A SP ERA = >2.00 -3 pt
SP whip ># -4 pts
etc
etc etc
Team performs badly at night -.5 pts
Good bullpen +2 pts
high slugging rate as of late +5 pts.

Team B
same stuff...

then add the two totals and do this.

Say team A has 31 pts going for them. Team B has 42 pts going for them.

Then create a system in which you determine what price you would pay for those odds. If your system comes up with +130 and -145 and the actual line is +120 and -135 then you should go with the favorite because it is a bargain for you. Always have faith in your system, and find deals this way.

Cheers!

Beastxxx · 03-23-10, 10:51 PM

All the advice given are good except the one with the two o/u and 61% win.

Like cheme says "bullshit"

I actually like the 4 inning bets especially if the pitcher is good.
It helps to know baseball also.
I follow all the teams daily and I read up as much as I can.
Another thing to mention is the ballparks thats in the sticky and to watch the weather/winds etc.

One big rule I go by is If you are unsure of a certain game/pitcher/park/player etc. DON'T BET.
There are a lot of good folks here to help too.
Good luck

therber2 · 03-24-10, 08:52 AM

Originally posted by Sawyer

Don't bet on a team because they got a good pitcher. Starting Pitchers are overrated. Hitting & Bullpen are also important.

This is what I always thought. Ever since I've been betting on MLB I put only a very moderate weight on starter pitching factors because I can get an almost primary edge that way. I wonder with all of you guys waking up now will the books plan accordingly as they always do?

Who here is a spy for the books? Raise your hand.

MexicanStallion · 03-24-10, 09:56 AM

Good information posted here.

bozeman · 03-24-10, 10:34 AM

Originally posted by therber2

Come up with your own betting formula with weighted factors.

Example:

Team A SP ERA = >2.00 -3 pt
SP whip ># -4 pts
etc
etc etc
Team performs badly at night -.5 pts
Good bullpen +2 pts
high slugging rate as of late +5 pts.

Team B
same stuff...

then add the two totals and do this.

Say team A has 31 pts going for them. Team B has 42 pts going for them.

Then create a system in which you determine what price you would pay for those odds. If your system comes up with +130 and -145 and the actual line is +120 and -135 then you should go with the favorite because it is a bargain for you. Always have faith in your system, and find deals this way.

Cheers!

Do you have your own system that hits over 66% at least?? I found that pretty hard in every sport and the only thing I have like that is NCAAB in January-February system. I agree with the guys here who say automatic systems don't work, sport is a game between living people, not robots, programmed to produce 4,15 ERA each season, weather and motivation I think are way more value than stats. Paid and proved

Stealinhome · 03-24-10, 10:48 AM

IMO the pens are a huge in who wins games. Look at how much they have been used in the last 3-5 days every team has 1-2 games a month where they have to let the starter go longer then they want because they have to rest the pen and try to live to fight another day. I like to find spots where the pen is over worked and the 3-5 starter is starting a situation like this can mean they are in for a long day. This works best in the "dog day" late July to early September.

Chugs · 03-24-10, 12:21 PM

Great thread ... A lot of good tips and experienced info in here

THE PROFIT · 03-24-10, 12:26 PM

good info guys. Not much of a bases bettor myself, will be looking for some solid info from you guys. To me its something to pass the time until football, but know bases are very profitable with the right info.

CappinTerp · 03-24-10, 12:55 PM

I thought I posted this, but Iwill do it again. In baseball, never ever bet on a hot team to loose or bet on a cold team to win.!!
..........................more to follow.

CappinTerp · 03-24-10, 12:57 PM

Also when betting baseball remember, if a team has a GREAT YEAR THEY WILL STILL LOOSE 60 GAMES.!

PatrickBateman · 03-24-10, 01:03 PM

Like people said, look for heavy faves with bad bullpens and bet against them and you will make $

mlb · 03-24-10, 01:15 PM

Originally posted by CappinTerp

I thought I posted this, but Iwill do it again. In baseball, never ever bet on a hot team to loose or bet on a cold team to win.!!
..........................more to follow.

More info on this if you have it? And will you have your own thread this year on here?

Thanks for the great info man

CappinTerp · 03-24-10, 01:34 PM

mlb, I am thinking about my own thread, but not sure its worth the hassel. Some poeple here tail you and when they win its ok , then loose a few and all hell breaks out. Baseball is my best sport to cap, been doing it for 30 years I DONT mind shareing info. or giving out my picks, so I ll be glad to help you any way I can.

champs17 · 03-24-10, 02:09 PM

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CappinTerp · 03-24-10, 02:09 PM

REMEMBER/WARNING: The first 3 weeks of baseball are the hardest to cap.! This is so because baseball betting is all about trends and it takes some time for these trends to develope.