Seattle Mariners the popular pick in AL West
The Seattle Mariners have been on a W-L rollercoaster for a few seasons, making a 24-win leap from 2008-09 and now picked by many to unseat the Angels three year run in the AL West.
A couple of offseasons ago I got into a debate with Chance Harper about the Pythagorean win theory in baseball. More specifically, the debate was about relying on it as predictive stat when applied for a team from one season to the next.
Chance used it to project a serious downturn for the Seattle Mariners as they entered 2008. My projections suggested the M's were a dark horse to compete with the Angels for the AL West title. Seattle was coming off a surprising 2007 season during which it had won 88 games and added a couple of pitchers, Eric Bedard and Carlos Silva, who were each coming off solid showings in '07.
In the end, Chance's prognostication was correct; Bedard and Silva had forgettable seasons due to poor performances and/or injury, and the Mariners lost 101 games.
In a case of history repeating itself, Seattle is in a very similar position entering 2010 as it was to start 2008. The Mariners followed their 101-loss 2008 with 85 wins in 2009, a gain of 24 in the 'W' column. The club spent a busy winter adding Cliff Lee to the rotation, Chone Figgins to the infield and the always entertaining Milton Bradley to the outfield. With the consensus being the Angels are due for a decline in the division they've had a stranglehold on for years, Seattle's the obvious choice to take the AL West flag, right?
Uh, no. At least that's not how I see it with about two weeks to go before the season's first pitch. Seattle had no business losing 101 games in 2008. As mentioned, injuries played a big part in the Mariners' slow start two seasons ago. A big part of that 24-win jump last year was nothing more than 'market correction.' And getting back to Chance and his Pythagorean stat, Seattle was lucky to have won 85 games in 2009.
The main reason I do not buy into Pythagorean as it applies to baseball is the stat tries to level baseball games out to one-run affairs. We all know that isn't how the games go. In a three-game series, Team A opens with a 9-2 win, then drops the next two games 3-2 and 4-3. Pythagorean tells you Team A should be 2-1. They're not.
Will the Mariners be in the hunt for the 2010 AL West flag? They should be, but then, the M's shouldn't have lost 101 times in 2008.
NOTE: Win totals and prices shown below were current at The Greek.com as of Sunday, Mar. 21, 3 p.m. (ET)
Los Angeles 84½ (Over +110 / Under -130)
Avg. wins: 85.6 (High-90, Low-80)
Analysis: The oft-reported death of the Angels this winter is greatly exaggerated, in my opinion. The loss of John Lackey can be easily overcome with full, healthy seasons from Scott Kazmir and Ervin Santana, and the departures of Figgins to Seattle and Vlad Guerrero to Texas can be made up by Brandon Wood and Hideki Matsui. Granted, having to face Chone and Vlad regularly in the division will be interesting, and the odds of the Angels coming in with a mid-90s win level are pretty slim. But I'm not even close to being ready to dismiss the Halos' chances of winning a fourth-straight ALW flag as the consensus seems to be.
Wood holds a big key to the offense. Without Figgins, the offensive style will change, no doubt. There are also questions in the bullpen, not so much with Brian Fuentes but getting to him with the return of Scot Shields and adding Fernando Rodney in the setup, 7th-8th innings roles.
My pick: I love this team to win 86-88 games this year, so give me the 'over.'
Oakland 79½ (Over +120 / Under -140)
Avg. wins: 78.0 (High-81, Low-73)
Analysis: If Andrew Bailey has more than just "tennis elbow" going on in his right arm, the A's should be a lock for the 'under.' Even with him 100 percent at the back of the pen, it's hard for me to see them winning more than 81-82 games. What makes this club so hard to cap at this time is the complete mystery in the rotation.
Ben Sheets, the injury-prone veteran signed during the winter, has been serving them up so far this spring. He could settle down, and spring numbers are iffy anyway to use as a tell-all gauge. Where I think the club has betting value will be early in the season with Brett Anderson and Trevor Cahill on the mound, possibly even Gio Gonzalez. That trio could (should?) eventually become another Zito-Hudson-Mulder group, but I'm not ready to bet on this year being their coming of age.
My pick: No bet for me, but the 'under' is the safe pick.
Seattle 83½ (Over -110 / Under -110)
Avg. wins: 83.6 (High-89, Low-79
Analysis: There's no question that, on paper, at least, the Mariners have the best 1-2 rotation punch in the division with Lee and Felix Hernandez. In the 63 starts that duo averaged in five simulations, Seattle averaged winning almost 43 games. Having two Aces can certainly carry a team a long way. If they do reach the postseason, look out.
But where the Mariners consistently fell short in the simulations was on offense, especially in the power department. Hey, I love 'small ball' as much if not more than the next guy. I'd love to be Don Wakamatsu this season with the likes of Figgins and Ichiro Suzuki at or near the top of my order. However, I don't want Wakamatsu's task of dealing with the volatile, disruptive Bradley who could very well be the key in supplying power for this club.
My pick: The 'over' 83 ½ is the best play, but I'm not expecting it to be as easy as so many are saying.
Texas 84½ (Over -105 / Under -115)
Avg. wins: 85.4 (High-90, Low-78)
Analysis: My admiration for Nolan Ryan no doubt tints my vision of this club. Still, I'm convinced the man has this franchise pointed in a very positive direction, and after picking the team as the Angels' chief challenger back in January, I remain convinced the Rangers have every reason to expect to win and get into the postseason.
With the Yankees and Red Sox seemingly having at least two of the playoff slots sewn up, that means Texas has to win the division. Barring injury, the Rangers should have a very good bullpen and the offense should improve on its seventh-place AL showing in the runs scored department. Now, can Texas see the growth of both Scott Feldman and Tommy Hunter, plus get 25 starts from Rich Harden?
My pick: I like the 'over' 84½ wins and love this team's chances to unseat the Angels at the top of the order.
Statistical sources for this article include Baseball-Reference.com, ESPN.com, Retrosheet.org, SBRforum.com and UncleWilliesAgingMind.net.
The Seattle Mariners have been on a W-L rollercoaster for a few seasons, making a 24-win leap from 2008-09 and now picked by many to unseat the Angels three year run in the AL West.
A couple of offseasons ago I got into a debate with Chance Harper about the Pythagorean win theory in baseball. More specifically, the debate was about relying on it as predictive stat when applied for a team from one season to the next.
Chance used it to project a serious downturn for the Seattle Mariners as they entered 2008. My projections suggested the M's were a dark horse to compete with the Angels for the AL West title. Seattle was coming off a surprising 2007 season during which it had won 88 games and added a couple of pitchers, Eric Bedard and Carlos Silva, who were each coming off solid showings in '07.
In the end, Chance's prognostication was correct; Bedard and Silva had forgettable seasons due to poor performances and/or injury, and the Mariners lost 101 games.
In a case of history repeating itself, Seattle is in a very similar position entering 2010 as it was to start 2008. The Mariners followed their 101-loss 2008 with 85 wins in 2009, a gain of 24 in the 'W' column. The club spent a busy winter adding Cliff Lee to the rotation, Chone Figgins to the infield and the always entertaining Milton Bradley to the outfield. With the consensus being the Angels are due for a decline in the division they've had a stranglehold on for years, Seattle's the obvious choice to take the AL West flag, right?
Uh, no. At least that's not how I see it with about two weeks to go before the season's first pitch. Seattle had no business losing 101 games in 2008. As mentioned, injuries played a big part in the Mariners' slow start two seasons ago. A big part of that 24-win jump last year was nothing more than 'market correction.' And getting back to Chance and his Pythagorean stat, Seattle was lucky to have won 85 games in 2009.
The main reason I do not buy into Pythagorean as it applies to baseball is the stat tries to level baseball games out to one-run affairs. We all know that isn't how the games go. In a three-game series, Team A opens with a 9-2 win, then drops the next two games 3-2 and 4-3. Pythagorean tells you Team A should be 2-1. They're not.
Will the Mariners be in the hunt for the 2010 AL West flag? They should be, but then, the M's shouldn't have lost 101 times in 2008.
NOTE: Win totals and prices shown below were current at The Greek.com as of Sunday, Mar. 21, 3 p.m. (ET)
Los Angeles 84½ (Over +110 / Under -130)
Avg. wins: 85.6 (High-90, Low-80)
Analysis: The oft-reported death of the Angels this winter is greatly exaggerated, in my opinion. The loss of John Lackey can be easily overcome with full, healthy seasons from Scott Kazmir and Ervin Santana, and the departures of Figgins to Seattle and Vlad Guerrero to Texas can be made up by Brandon Wood and Hideki Matsui. Granted, having to face Chone and Vlad regularly in the division will be interesting, and the odds of the Angels coming in with a mid-90s win level are pretty slim. But I'm not even close to being ready to dismiss the Halos' chances of winning a fourth-straight ALW flag as the consensus seems to be.
Wood holds a big key to the offense. Without Figgins, the offensive style will change, no doubt. There are also questions in the bullpen, not so much with Brian Fuentes but getting to him with the return of Scot Shields and adding Fernando Rodney in the setup, 7th-8th innings roles.
My pick: I love this team to win 86-88 games this year, so give me the 'over.'
Oakland 79½ (Over +120 / Under -140)
Avg. wins: 78.0 (High-81, Low-73)
Analysis: If Andrew Bailey has more than just "tennis elbow" going on in his right arm, the A's should be a lock for the 'under.' Even with him 100 percent at the back of the pen, it's hard for me to see them winning more than 81-82 games. What makes this club so hard to cap at this time is the complete mystery in the rotation.
Ben Sheets, the injury-prone veteran signed during the winter, has been serving them up so far this spring. He could settle down, and spring numbers are iffy anyway to use as a tell-all gauge. Where I think the club has betting value will be early in the season with Brett Anderson and Trevor Cahill on the mound, possibly even Gio Gonzalez. That trio could (should?) eventually become another Zito-Hudson-Mulder group, but I'm not ready to bet on this year being their coming of age.
My pick: No bet for me, but the 'under' is the safe pick.
Seattle 83½ (Over -110 / Under -110)
Avg. wins: 83.6 (High-89, Low-79
Analysis: There's no question that, on paper, at least, the Mariners have the best 1-2 rotation punch in the division with Lee and Felix Hernandez. In the 63 starts that duo averaged in five simulations, Seattle averaged winning almost 43 games. Having two Aces can certainly carry a team a long way. If they do reach the postseason, look out.
But where the Mariners consistently fell short in the simulations was on offense, especially in the power department. Hey, I love 'small ball' as much if not more than the next guy. I'd love to be Don Wakamatsu this season with the likes of Figgins and Ichiro Suzuki at or near the top of my order. However, I don't want Wakamatsu's task of dealing with the volatile, disruptive Bradley who could very well be the key in supplying power for this club.
My pick: The 'over' 83 ½ is the best play, but I'm not expecting it to be as easy as so many are saying.
Texas 84½ (Over -105 / Under -115)
Avg. wins: 85.4 (High-90, Low-78)
Analysis: My admiration for Nolan Ryan no doubt tints my vision of this club. Still, I'm convinced the man has this franchise pointed in a very positive direction, and after picking the team as the Angels' chief challenger back in January, I remain convinced the Rangers have every reason to expect to win and get into the postseason.
With the Yankees and Red Sox seemingly having at least two of the playoff slots sewn up, that means Texas has to win the division. Barring injury, the Rangers should have a very good bullpen and the offense should improve on its seventh-place AL showing in the runs scored department. Now, can Texas see the growth of both Scott Feldman and Tommy Hunter, plus get 25 starts from Rich Harden?
My pick: I like the 'over' 84½ wins and love this team's chances to unseat the Angels at the top of the order.
Statistical sources for this article include Baseball-Reference.com, ESPN.com, Retrosheet.org, SBRforum.com and UncleWilliesAgingMind.net.
