Diamondbacks look to spin Webb in NL West
The NL West featured four teams that improved by at least 11 wins from 2008-09. The Diamondbacks were not among them but could be back in the hunt with the return of Brandon Webb.
The NL West qualified as the major leagues' Wild Bunch last season with all five teams experiencing volatile shifts in the win column. Each of the quintet gained or lost at least 11 wins compared to their 2008 numbers, with Colorado's +18 in '09 the second-largest gain in the bigs behind Seattle's +24.
Four of the nine MLB teams that bloated their win totals by plus-10 or greater from 2008 to 2009 came from the NL West. There were also nine teams that went at least minus-10, including the Diamondbacks, so double-digit shifts from one year to the next are not out of the ordinary. Teams play over their heads, or below their ability. Teams sign a crucial free agents or two and that spurs them higher or lower in the standings or suffer plain old bad luck when a key player or two drops with an injury.
This division was pretty quiet in the offseason as far as new free agent additions. Some of the biggest news was Tim Lincecum getting busted for weed and then signing a very lucrative two-year contract extension in San Francisco. Sort of a mixed message there, huh?
The other big news was the nasty McCourt divorce at the top of the Dodgers food chain. I have no interest in the tabloid stuff, but in this case it plays into futures considerations.
The Dodgers are coming off an NL-best 95 wins, reaching that figure without their star slugger Manny Ramirez for about a third of the '09 campaign. Los Angeles teamed with Colorado and San Francisco to give the NL West three of the toughest teams in the Senior Circuit.
There are no statistical reasons to count on either the Dodgers or the Rockies having a subpar season. One or both may, but here in the early goings of Spring Training the safe money says they're each good for mid-80s or higher in the win column. That's exactly where their 'over/under' marks are being listed and exactly the number their average wins landed in five simulation runs.
If you're of the notion that Arizona pushes its way into the mix, that would figure to mean a down year for San Fran plus a return to form for Brandon Webb on the desert mound.
All of which adds up to the safest bet quite possibly being one that is placed the division's doomed-to-the-cellar squad. Well, maybe not.
NOTE: Win totals and prices shown below were current at The Greek.com as of Sunday, Mar. 7, 3 p.m. (ET)
Arizona 82½ (Over -130 / Under +110)
Avg. wins: 79.8 (High-84, Low-76)
Pick: The Diamondbacks are going to hit 200 homers. The extra 25+ homers over last year's total should see Arizona moving up from eighth in NL scoring to fourth or fifth. Now, if Webb is back to form that could mean the 13-game improvement in the win column that books are selling as the break point currently. Predicting how Webb will return is tough right now. All signs point to him being fine so far, and I do hope he gets back to his old ways.
In the end, however, it's the bullpen that scares me most and that has become such a key element of the game. My bet here is the 'under' 82½.
Colorado 84½ (+100/-120)
Avg. Wins: 84.4 (High-87, Low-79)
Pick: I really like this team, so my fear is I'm not thinking objectively. It's not a fan thing, don't get me wrong. But the stats keep telling me this is the division winner, and I'm afraid that I'm reading too much into the numbers. Colorado should've never won just 74 games in 2008, and maybe the Rockies shouldn't have won 92 last season.
I'm buying on the top floor with this one.
Los Angeles 84½ (-115/-105)
Avg. Wins: 84.4 (High-88, low-80)
Pick: On the surface a team that just one an NL-best 95 games and should have its star slugger for an extra third of the coming seasons shouldn't have to change much of its personnel. There's the late news about catcher Russell Martin missing up to the first 2-3 weeks of the season, but the starting rotation bugs me more than that. Clayton Kershaw should be better, but Vicente Padilla will not pitch like the did down the stretch and in the playoffs while Chad Billingsley is officially on iffy status.
LA has the right manager to weather a story front office, but I don't like this one either ;over' or 'under.'
San Diego 71½ (+100/-120)
Avg. Wins: 71.0 (High-76, Low-67)
Pick: There are only so many wins to go around each season, in fact, just 1,215 of them. Less than 72 of them should belong to the Padres. Stranger things have happened than a team like San Diego avoiding the 90-loss column. But I feel as good about this 'under' as I do with Toronto.
San Francisco 82½ (+105/-125)
Avg. Wins: 83.4 (High-88, Low-80)
Pick: A very tough team for me to make a call either way. The Lincecum, Matt Cain punch in the rotation is indeed strong, and the four most crucial arms in the pen (Brian Wilson, Jeremy Affeldt, Brandon Medders and Sergio Romo) all posted a lower ERA away from AT&T Park in case you're thinking those stats were home-stadium aided. But did they improve the impotent offense enough?
The simulation stats say no, not enough for the playoffs but enough to slide 'over' the season win total.
Statistical sources for this article include Baseball-Reference.com, ESPN.com, Retrosheet.org, SBRforum.com and UncleWilliesAgingMind.net.
The NL West featured four teams that improved by at least 11 wins from 2008-09. The Diamondbacks were not among them but could be back in the hunt with the return of Brandon Webb.
The NL West qualified as the major leagues' Wild Bunch last season with all five teams experiencing volatile shifts in the win column. Each of the quintet gained or lost at least 11 wins compared to their 2008 numbers, with Colorado's +18 in '09 the second-largest gain in the bigs behind Seattle's +24.
Four of the nine MLB teams that bloated their win totals by plus-10 or greater from 2008 to 2009 came from the NL West. There were also nine teams that went at least minus-10, including the Diamondbacks, so double-digit shifts from one year to the next are not out of the ordinary. Teams play over their heads, or below their ability. Teams sign a crucial free agents or two and that spurs them higher or lower in the standings or suffer plain old bad luck when a key player or two drops with an injury.
This division was pretty quiet in the offseason as far as new free agent additions. Some of the biggest news was Tim Lincecum getting busted for weed and then signing a very lucrative two-year contract extension in San Francisco. Sort of a mixed message there, huh?
The other big news was the nasty McCourt divorce at the top of the Dodgers food chain. I have no interest in the tabloid stuff, but in this case it plays into futures considerations.
The Dodgers are coming off an NL-best 95 wins, reaching that figure without their star slugger Manny Ramirez for about a third of the '09 campaign. Los Angeles teamed with Colorado and San Francisco to give the NL West three of the toughest teams in the Senior Circuit.
There are no statistical reasons to count on either the Dodgers or the Rockies having a subpar season. One or both may, but here in the early goings of Spring Training the safe money says they're each good for mid-80s or higher in the win column. That's exactly where their 'over/under' marks are being listed and exactly the number their average wins landed in five simulation runs.
If you're of the notion that Arizona pushes its way into the mix, that would figure to mean a down year for San Fran plus a return to form for Brandon Webb on the desert mound.
All of which adds up to the safest bet quite possibly being one that is placed the division's doomed-to-the-cellar squad. Well, maybe not.
NOTE: Win totals and prices shown below were current at The Greek.com as of Sunday, Mar. 7, 3 p.m. (ET)
Arizona 82½ (Over -130 / Under +110)
Avg. wins: 79.8 (High-84, Low-76)
Pick: The Diamondbacks are going to hit 200 homers. The extra 25+ homers over last year's total should see Arizona moving up from eighth in NL scoring to fourth or fifth. Now, if Webb is back to form that could mean the 13-game improvement in the win column that books are selling as the break point currently. Predicting how Webb will return is tough right now. All signs point to him being fine so far, and I do hope he gets back to his old ways.
In the end, however, it's the bullpen that scares me most and that has become such a key element of the game. My bet here is the 'under' 82½.
Colorado 84½ (+100/-120)
Avg. Wins: 84.4 (High-87, Low-79)
Pick: I really like this team, so my fear is I'm not thinking objectively. It's not a fan thing, don't get me wrong. But the stats keep telling me this is the division winner, and I'm afraid that I'm reading too much into the numbers. Colorado should've never won just 74 games in 2008, and maybe the Rockies shouldn't have won 92 last season.
I'm buying on the top floor with this one.
Los Angeles 84½ (-115/-105)
Avg. Wins: 84.4 (High-88, low-80)
Pick: On the surface a team that just one an NL-best 95 games and should have its star slugger for an extra third of the coming seasons shouldn't have to change much of its personnel. There's the late news about catcher Russell Martin missing up to the first 2-3 weeks of the season, but the starting rotation bugs me more than that. Clayton Kershaw should be better, but Vicente Padilla will not pitch like the did down the stretch and in the playoffs while Chad Billingsley is officially on iffy status.
LA has the right manager to weather a story front office, but I don't like this one either ;over' or 'under.'
San Diego 71½ (+100/-120)
Avg. Wins: 71.0 (High-76, Low-67)
Pick: There are only so many wins to go around each season, in fact, just 1,215 of them. Less than 72 of them should belong to the Padres. Stranger things have happened than a team like San Diego avoiding the 90-loss column. But I feel as good about this 'under' as I do with Toronto.
San Francisco 82½ (+105/-125)
Avg. Wins: 83.4 (High-88, Low-80)
Pick: A very tough team for me to make a call either way. The Lincecum, Matt Cain punch in the rotation is indeed strong, and the four most crucial arms in the pen (Brian Wilson, Jeremy Affeldt, Brandon Medders and Sergio Romo) all posted a lower ERA away from AT&T Park in case you're thinking those stats were home-stadium aided. But did they improve the impotent offense enough?
The simulation stats say no, not enough for the playoffs but enough to slide 'over' the season win total.
Statistical sources for this article include Baseball-Reference.com, ESPN.com, Retrosheet.org, SBRforum.com and UncleWilliesAgingMind.net.