No one here EVER takes the +1.5 run line... why?
I've never seen anyone here EVER take the +1.5 run line... why?
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You get killed on the chalk...Comment -
MLB runlines are possibly the worst bet in all of sports. Not a single team has shown a profit on the runline in any season over the last seven years.Comment -
I do the +1.5 all the time on parlays as a cover for favs I have on parlays , and look for 1 run win by the fav to get both right . I do this like most do single wagers . Is normal , not being greedy can be very wise .Comment -
I don't know where you're playing that charges you 22% (!) vig on run lines but I suggest you immediately head for the hills and never look back.
Even Bookmaker, a book not exactly known for its low juice, is nowhere near 22% vig on any of it's run lines.
Here are 6 MLB games I selected randomly from Bookmaker's current board. I compare the vig on the run lines to the vig on the money lines:
As you can see the vig on the run line is lower than the vig on the money line in half the cases and is never more than half a percent larger in any case.Code:REDS +1½ -195 +110 PIRATES -1½ +165 -130 Money Line Vig: 3.98% [B]Run Line Vig: 3.70%[/B] CARDINALS -1½ +120 -135 ASTROS +1½ -140 +115 Money Line Vig: 3.81% [B]Run Line Vig: 3.65%[/B] D-BACKS +1½ -130 +170 PADRES -1½ +110 -200 [B]Money Line Vig: 3.57%[/B] Run Line Vig: 3.98% RED SOX +1½ -145 +136 YANKEES -1½ +125 -156 [B]Money Line Vig: 3.20%[/B] Run Line Vig: 3.50% TIGERS -1½ +105 -155 ROYALS +1½ -125 +135 [B]Money Line Vig: 3.23%[/B] Run Line Vig: 4.16% MARINERS +1½ -160 +125 INDIANS -1½ +140 -145 Money Line Vig: 3.50% [B]Run Line Vig: 3.11%[/B]
There certainly are valid reasons to stay away from playing the run lines. That run lines are routinely offered at higher vig is not one of them.
See this post I made on choosing between run lines and money lines.Comment -
Drop them seeds man !Real life for me here >>> If an x is an x and checks on my paper is a check >>> is a withdrawl then the real reasoning for taking the dog with the run or the fav minus the run would all come down to the games in question , the games actually wagered<<<< .ONE SCENARIO > Someone can prove all theory wrong , like myself , a big hit on 1 PARLAY/PARLAYS FOR THAT GIVEN DAY to make up for all the losing ones JUST BECAUSE I COVERED MYSELF WITH THE +1.5 STRATEGY (and of course in all sports) . When a team is a big lemon which is a normal occurence then if you covered yourself you may hit up on other parlays to make more than you did with what you really liked for the night . I am speaking from experience , nothing hypothetical whatsoever . I cant say to much here because people wont believe me or they will just try and knock me , but I have hundreds of winning 7 - 10 team parlays that were good because I used the cover the favs strategy with the +1.5 . I set a goal and use sound strategies , sometimes I do around TWENTY 10 teamers a day and do it in a way where I can actually get all of them right , of course the dog with the +1.5 , is a simple 30 - 40 $ a day thing , no sweat if it goes good or doesn't . I make up for it somewhere else . In all sports , sometimes all the favs win straight but is the complete opposite ats , so in effect all parlays would be right as long as you took the team on the ml and the dog + points . This goes on and on down to the 2 and 3 team parlays , it is all connected with higher and lower probablity attached to each , getting killed by the big lemon / the fav has an outer realm most have not really ventured , in essence it can turn into a big profit when your best pick of the day /week/month loses if you cover yourself with the opposite team on some parlays with nice payouts ...........or you can hit both if they win but dont cover . okayComment -
5 favs won by 1 run tonight soooooooo a check on paper is a check not an x not red on a betting ticket killing the stake ........................................ .......................... actual breakdown for this night with the +1.5 line was 13 out of the 15 were good with the +1.5 , you could have only went wrong doing the +1.5 with 2 teams Cards DBacks . THATS REALITY . Not a theory .
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5 favs won by 1 run tonight soooooooo a check on paper is a check not an x not red on a betting ticket killing the stake ........................................ .......................... actual breakdown for this night with the +1.5 line was 13 out of the 15 were good with the +1.5 , you could have only went wrong doing the +1.5 with 2 teams Cards DBacks . THATS REALITY . Not a theory .
so...do you ever bet the entire + 1.5 run line board on any nite??Comment -
Ganchrow , I was very impressed by your deep insight posts on this subject + even goin deeper . You dropped it on here like a brand new kerosene heater to a naked hawaiian man in an igloo on the outskirts of alaska . If people could just see it needs kerosene we could rule the world or at the least continue being free doing whatever we please without going mad . haha and I'm clean and sober . that was some freestyle flow .Comment -
nah I use the +1.5 for covers but never soley dogs+1.5 on parlays alone . Results for each night just go to show how it works .Comment
