I am going to write a sports gambling book

[AC1318]

I will call it "your guess is as good as mine"

who posted the average runs scored in bannister contreras games vs opposing teams was like an average of 12

[AC1318]

I was wrong it is actually 10

[AC1318]

why was the line so low at 8.5 ??

[WestsidePete]

because of bannister...for what ever reason...

[AC1318]

very surprised so many played under

[EJandV]

It was 9 and then it moved down to 8.5 , then I looked same time frame and saw sonnys under 8.5 clicked in like 10 minutes after it moved , he was going with the line movement . If I had to answer I would say Soprano wagered 10 k on the under 9 runs early yesterday ? and then his buddies did a lil of the same ............ so moved down half a run and looked like a wise $ play . Not to me it wasnt . But by watching the game it could have went under just as easily as it happened to go over .

[AC1318]

It was 9 and then it moved down to 8.5 , then I looked same time frame and saw sonnys under 8.5 clicked in like 10 minutes after it moved , he was going with the line movement . If I had to answer I would say Soprano wagered 10 k on the under 9 runs early yesterday ? and then his buddies did a lil of the same ............ so moved down half a run and looked like a wise $ play . Not to me it wasnt . But by watching the game it could have went under just as easily as it happened to go over .

but 12 of 16 in the past went over 9

[joverh]

Last minute pick

-----------------

[EJandV]

yeah well 9 is a normal o/u which is how it came out , it really is not a huge factor on past matchups for the o/u , it is like big time factors for that are in the here and now frame with the starters and the teams runs per game plus lefty righty , it could have been 9.5 if the only factor was how bad contreras had done vs kc and the factor of past matchups being over , but they concentrate on the present more . In all reality contreras or bannister could have no hit the other team so damn the under would always be worth a shot if that was any kind of decent % to happen , which of course any pitcher can do well , get lucky alot , d makes web gem after web gem in the field robbing the hitters , making the starter look saaaweett , the over/under is far more complex than picking a team to win . My best scenario for how easy it can be > you take the over and one is blowout>>>> winning team goes over the total by themselves . Also , the formula to get the over is simply both teams do their part offensively , hitting their averageruns per game and is a cakewalk for the over to cash . Off the top of my head ..... my fav scenario to make cash is fav and over , maybe thats why I am not a millionaire , no its becauseof the online casino bs . For me on the over under thing I am not there yet really , not evolved , even though I know everythign about it ........... is complex really . The over has cost me a many parlay in my day , throwing that bs on there ot make more $ / greedy .

[area51steve]

Yea, I looked at the stats after seeing sonnys pick today and the under just didn't make sense.. Glad I stayed away

[AC1318]

past history works for me, just need to be on the right side of it when it comes around

[EJandV]

Trends would be past history right ? You would be all over the mets then right ?

[AC1318]

Trends would be past history right ? You would be all over the mets then right ?

why would that be

[EJandV]

mets have dominated them .

[EJandV]

is past history trend , is really the biggest trend on the board today mets 7 - 0 past 7 vs padres in NY .

[AC1318]

mets have dominated them .

they split the last 20 since 2001 10-10 in NY

were 10-10 over all until this series started as well last 20

SD 11-9 at home last 20

peavy 4-4 overall

lawrence new to SD

[EJandV]

I know you dont go back that far , lol at that 1 . Now you are getting a sense of humor AC seriously it is the biggest trend today with team vs team playing at , is actually at 100 % is rock solid trend , going against the Mets would fall into playing the due theory , mets due to scratch this 7 - 0 100% super trend . I dont like the game .

[xxx]

in the kc-cws 7 of the 13 runs were scored after the 7th, so the bullpens screwed the under. i would be pretty pissed

[AC1318]

in the kc-cws 7 of the 13 runs were scored after the 7th, so the bullpens screwed the under. i would be pretty pissed

that is the way every night in almost every game

[WestsidePete]

do any of you bet the second halves of games?? the 6th inning on total runs scored is usually 3 1/2 to 4 runs...I've done this 4 times this year and am 3-1...seems like pens give up more runs the last 2 months of the season so maybe worth a try...