Holy Shit Guys-take A Look

EaglesPhan36 · 08-07-07, 06:13 PM

NYY were at -142 or so at BetJam all day. I wouldn't base anything on one book's price.

EJandV · 08-07-07, 09:40 PM

Straight up no bs I look at the line changes more often than not as trickery , but thats just me . From pure year after year experience is where I get this from . Trickery comes in so many forms I would be a fool to type all the ways they do this. Of course some line changes are for good reasons .

EJandV · 08-07-07, 09:43 PM

The no brainer line changes when a key player is in or out , no tricks there .

maritime · 08-08-07, 01:51 AM

Originally posted by EJandV

Straight up no bs I look at the line changes more often than not as trickery , but thats just me . From pure year after year experience is where I get this from . Trickery comes in so many forms I would be a fool to type all the ways they do this. Of course some line changes are for good reasons .

Books move lines to balance their action and maximize profit/vig. They move secondary to action by a small percentage of large bettors, not the action of a large percentage of average Joe's/small bettors. There are occ. exceptions to this. Like the whole Dr. Bob deal recently in football. They are not trying to "trick" you.

Today was a good example of line movement which I commented on in previous post, Dodgers vs. Reds. The Dodgers are seen mainly (by general bettors) as a playoff team this season. The Reds are seen primarily as one of the worst teams in baseball. Line moved away from the Dodgers and toward Cincy; the Reds actually went from underdog to favorite. Not to trick you. So called "smart money" came in on Reds (basically people who know and invest a hell of a lot more time and money on sports betting than the vast majority of us) and subsequently the line moved. Larger books often just follow suit. Anyway, I guess years of experience have actually taught me the opposite of you. I see line movement as another significant factor of handicapping based on the premise that people who know more than I do are moving the lines, particularly in baseball because line generally are set the day before the game (vs football where you have a week).

EJandV · 08-08-07, 08:25 PM

Line changes

Yeah I hear ya , I was talking about the MLB only . They play day in and day out and anybody can win more so than other sports playing fewer games . When you play day in and day out it kinda/DOES run together and what these so called big money people that are betting the Reds in the example you gave for tonight , what possibly could they know and where did they make this bet ? Does any of the 8 sportsbooks I belong to know this info ? Yeah , we dont know . I know what you are saying but seems pretty fuzzy since it would apply more to the actual site the bet was made on your example of the Reds . Maybe I missed something ?

EJandV · 08-08-07, 08:30 PM

When 2 mlb teams are basically the same line or close I believe they give the run and a half to the team they think will win because most people would swing with the fav , same in football esp college with the -1 bs . More people would take the -1 thinking that means something that they have advantage taking the team classified as the fav . Please enlighten me ?

EJandV · 08-08-07, 08:37 PM

Remember that at sportbooks there is a position of linesmaker , right ? Each guy or employee on that staff would be different . I can give you a great example of this on monday night . Final fav/dog count was 8 - 1 favs going by sportsbook.com final count on thegreek was 6 - 3 favs . Greek had twins and rangers - 1.5 sb had indians and athletics -1.5 understand ? Did this simple example here create anything $ wise with who people put their money on ? common sense would say oh yeah , so .... is day in day out thing , hard to track >>> FO REAL , hard to track that is from the perspective of trying to figure out the linemakers objective at the said sportbook . With me ?