2* Tigers -122: Contreras has been hammered lately, giving up at least 5 R in six of list seven starts. He's allowed more hits than IP in ten of his last eleven outings, and things don't figure to get much better tomorrow against the premier offense in the AL, if not all of baseball. Contreras' career numbers against Detroit are pretty good (8-4, 3.64), but he's shown no indication of late that he's anywhere near the same pitcher as he was as recently as two years ago, when for the better part of the '05 season he was one of the better pitcher's in the AL. The ChiSox are auditioning Contreras for other teams with the hope of getting something of value in return, so even if he's not effective early, he'll likely be allowed to pitch deep in the game, just as he pitched into the 8th in his last outing against Boston despite allowing 10 runs. Rogers certainly isn't overpowering, but he throws strikes and still knows how to pitch. Konerko, Dye and Thome are a combined 28/120 (.233) against Rogers.
1* Pirates +145: Glavine's coming off his worst outing of the year, and although he's generally bounced back well after a poor start, he's extremely hittable at this point in his career. Gorzelanny is simply one of the best young pitchers in baseball, and his numbers are better than Glavine's across the board (ERA - Gorzo: 3.20, Glav: 4.51, WHIP - Gorzo: 1.23, Glav: 1.37, K's - Gorzo: 86, Glav: 58, BB - Gorzo: 38, Glav: 41). Generous price for the Pirates given the significant pitching advantage in Pitt's favor.
1* Royals +130: Sure, the Yankees' offense is on fire, but their recent offensive explosion has come against the likes of Scott Elarton, Odalis Perez and J.P. Howell. Gil Meche has been solid much of the season, and he's had decent success against NYY (3-2, 3.88). Mussina, while still capable of throwing a good game, has really struggled on the road (.321 BAA in 40.1 IP). I think this is yet another case of the Yankees being overvalued, particularly with the offensive outburst in recent games that included a 17-run performance and a 21-run performance on consecutive days.
1* Braves/Giants U 8.5 -105: SF's offense continues to struggle, and with many in the lineup facing tough lefty Chuck James for the first time, I don't anticipate tomorrow night being much different. Noah Lowry's nothing special and he walks too many hitter's, always a concern when playing the under, but he's been much more effective pitching at AT&T (7-2, 2.82 at home/3-5, 4.32 on the road).
Also leaning towards the Cards, and will add them if I can get plus money at some point tomorrow. Good luck everyone.
1* Pirates +145: Glavine's coming off his worst outing of the year, and although he's generally bounced back well after a poor start, he's extremely hittable at this point in his career. Gorzelanny is simply one of the best young pitchers in baseball, and his numbers are better than Glavine's across the board (ERA - Gorzo: 3.20, Glav: 4.51, WHIP - Gorzo: 1.23, Glav: 1.37, K's - Gorzo: 86, Glav: 58, BB - Gorzo: 38, Glav: 41). Generous price for the Pirates given the significant pitching advantage in Pitt's favor.
1* Royals +130: Sure, the Yankees' offense is on fire, but their recent offensive explosion has come against the likes of Scott Elarton, Odalis Perez and J.P. Howell. Gil Meche has been solid much of the season, and he's had decent success against NYY (3-2, 3.88). Mussina, while still capable of throwing a good game, has really struggled on the road (.321 BAA in 40.1 IP). I think this is yet another case of the Yankees being overvalued, particularly with the offensive outburst in recent games that included a 17-run performance and a 21-run performance on consecutive days.
1* Braves/Giants U 8.5 -105: SF's offense continues to struggle, and with many in the lineup facing tough lefty Chuck James for the first time, I don't anticipate tomorrow night being much different. Noah Lowry's nothing special and he walks too many hitter's, always a concern when playing the under, but he's been much more effective pitching at AT&T (7-2, 2.82 at home/3-5, 4.32 on the road).
Also leaning towards the Cards, and will add them if I can get plus money at some point tomorrow. Good luck everyone.
