Cincinnati RL (+135): Arizona is really limping towards the break, and if they lose this game, it is likely to be by more than one.
Aaron Harang has not been lights-out of late, and he has a bit more trouble in the daytime in general, but he is still a solid starter, and Arizona's lineup does not pose a great challenge.
On the other side, Yusmeiro Petit is likely to be vulnerable in this game. He was ok in the minors, but also got hit at times. He has had two good starts in the majors so far, but facing Cincinnati's power hitters at the Great American Ballpark is likely to be a bit of a different story. He may well get tagged with multiple home runs, which would put the game likely out of reach for Arizona.
Considering Petit's vulnerability and Arizona's feeble lineup, the Cincinnati RL has value here IMO.
Minnesota ML (+105): The White Sox won yesterday's game with a strong start by a quality lefty, but that is the only way they have an advantage over Minnesota.
Javier Vazquez has been very good of late, but he is also very volatile, and he will be more likely to get hit here than he was in his latest starts.
Carlos Silva does not inspire confidence by any means, but he can be good at times. If he can keep Minnesota in the game, they should have an edge with a superior lineup and bullpen, and as such I think Minnesota has value as an underdog.
Kansas City ML (+115): Tampa Bay has almost no bullpen right now, so going against them as a road favorite is likely to have value in almost any situation.
De La Rosa can get hit badly, and Kazmir of course has considerable talent. But unless De La Rosa does get hit hard and Kazmir has a deep and top-level outing, Kansas City should have a sizable edge when the bullpens get involved, even if they are down by a handful of runs. As such KC has value as a home underdog IMO.
Colorado RL (+150), over (10.5 -115): Philadelphia is limping towards the break, while Colorado is steamrolling over all comers at home, and this pitching matchup doesn't figure to change any of that.
Adam Eaton has never done well at Coors, and he is likely to be vulnerable again today, after which the lesser parts of the Philadelphia bullpen are likely to get involved.
Aaron Cook mixes in mediocre starts with good ones, but either type will still likely result in an over and a Colorado RL win. Of course, if he has a good start, the over is less likely, and if he has a bad start, the RL is less likely, but both bets have decent value here IMO.
Texas ML (-115): Texas lost yesterday after Baltimore starter Erik Bedard had one of the best starts in the majors this year, but today's game figures to be a different story.
Daniel Cabrera has lights-out potential, but he hasn't been able to achieve anything close to that in almost all of his starts this season, and if he has his usual control problems in this game, Texas should be able to get to him for a good amount of runs.
On the other side, Kevin Millwood has been pitching a bit better recently, and he should be able to at least keep Texas in the game. If he can do that, Texas should have a good-sized advantage with a capable bullpen at home.
All in all, I see Texas as having a modest edge in this game, but with a high degree of confidence.
Aaron Harang has not been lights-out of late, and he has a bit more trouble in the daytime in general, but he is still a solid starter, and Arizona's lineup does not pose a great challenge.
On the other side, Yusmeiro Petit is likely to be vulnerable in this game. He was ok in the minors, but also got hit at times. He has had two good starts in the majors so far, but facing Cincinnati's power hitters at the Great American Ballpark is likely to be a bit of a different story. He may well get tagged with multiple home runs, which would put the game likely out of reach for Arizona.
Considering Petit's vulnerability and Arizona's feeble lineup, the Cincinnati RL has value here IMO.
Minnesota ML (+105): The White Sox won yesterday's game with a strong start by a quality lefty, but that is the only way they have an advantage over Minnesota.
Javier Vazquez has been very good of late, but he is also very volatile, and he will be more likely to get hit here than he was in his latest starts.
Carlos Silva does not inspire confidence by any means, but he can be good at times. If he can keep Minnesota in the game, they should have an edge with a superior lineup and bullpen, and as such I think Minnesota has value as an underdog.
Kansas City ML (+115): Tampa Bay has almost no bullpen right now, so going against them as a road favorite is likely to have value in almost any situation.
De La Rosa can get hit badly, and Kazmir of course has considerable talent. But unless De La Rosa does get hit hard and Kazmir has a deep and top-level outing, Kansas City should have a sizable edge when the bullpens get involved, even if they are down by a handful of runs. As such KC has value as a home underdog IMO.
Colorado RL (+150), over (10.5 -115): Philadelphia is limping towards the break, while Colorado is steamrolling over all comers at home, and this pitching matchup doesn't figure to change any of that.
Adam Eaton has never done well at Coors, and he is likely to be vulnerable again today, after which the lesser parts of the Philadelphia bullpen are likely to get involved.
Aaron Cook mixes in mediocre starts with good ones, but either type will still likely result in an over and a Colorado RL win. Of course, if he has a good start, the over is less likely, and if he has a bad start, the RL is less likely, but both bets have decent value here IMO.
Texas ML (-115): Texas lost yesterday after Baltimore starter Erik Bedard had one of the best starts in the majors this year, but today's game figures to be a different story.
Daniel Cabrera has lights-out potential, but he hasn't been able to achieve anything close to that in almost all of his starts this season, and if he has his usual control problems in this game, Texas should be able to get to him for a good amount of runs.
On the other side, Kevin Millwood has been pitching a bit better recently, and he should be able to at least keep Texas in the game. If he can do that, Texas should have a good-sized advantage with a capable bullpen at home.
All in all, I see Texas as having a modest edge in this game, but with a high degree of confidence.
