My weird strategy betting dogs

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  • Covering the #
    SBR Wise Guy
    • 02-19-17
    • 967

    #1
    My weird strategy betting dogs
    Will try this for awhile to see if I can gain traction. Looking for certain edges that may or may not pan out. Will be using 3 way run totals as a bonus, so even if dog loses there is a chance to get it back or even up our winnings.

    For tonight

    Rockies ml and over 9.5 +400 half unit

    Rockies and under 10.5 +350 half unit

    Total runs exactly 10 +850 0.1 unit
  • Covering the #
    SBR Wise Guy
    • 02-19-17
    • 967

    #2
    Current line is Rockies +164 for reference and starts in about 15 minutes
    Comment
    • Covering the #
      SBR Wise Guy
      • 02-19-17
      • 967

      #3
      The strategy in this thread is obviously trying to maximize a win other than just taking them moneyline pregame for a little less profit
      Comment
      • Covering the #
        SBR Wise Guy
        • 02-19-17
        • 967

        #4
        Rockies win 7-6

        +1.4 units overall

        Profit gained/lost on hedging (-.24) as taking Rockies straight up +164 was the ultimate play

        Exact runs 0-1 -.10 units
        Comment
        • Covering the #
          SBR Wise Guy
          • 02-19-17
          • 967

          #5
          Oakland/over 7.5 + 340 half unit

          Oakland/under 8.5 +272 half unit

          3 way run total 8 +800 0.1 unit

          Oakland is +130 for reference
          Last edited by Covering the #; 06-21-24, 08:22 PM. Reason: Added Oakland ml odds
          Comment
          • Covering the #
            SBR Wise Guy
            • 02-19-17
            • 967

            #6
            One more for tonight. Any time Will Smith is out of the lineup is a good time to go against Dodgers.

            Angels/over 8.5 +340 half unit

            Angels/under 9.5 half unit +320

            3 way run total 9 +650 0.1 unit

            Angels are +150 for reference
            Comment
            • Covering the #
              SBR Wise Guy
              • 02-19-17
              • 967

              #7
              Miami/over 8.5 +450 half unit

              Miami/under 9.5 +410 half unit

              3 way run total 9 +600 0.1 unit

              Miami is +210 for reference

              Will update records later tonight
              Comment
              • Covering the #
                SBR Wise Guy
                • 02-19-17
                • 967

                #8
                Originally posted by Covering the #
                Oakland/over 7.5 + 340 half unit

                Oakland/under 8.5 +272 half unit

                3 way run total 8 +800 0.1 unit

                Oakland is +130 for reference
                Oakland won 6-5

                Net +1.10

                Hedge -0.2 units
                Comment
                • Covering the #
                  SBR Wise Guy
                  • 02-19-17
                  • 967

                  #9
                  Originally posted by Covering the #
                  One more for tonight. Any time Will Smith is out of the lineup is a good time to go against Dodgers.

                  Angels/over 8.5 +340 half unit

                  Angels/under 9.5 half unit +320

                  3 way run total 9 +650 0.1 unit

                  Angels are +150 for reference
                  Angels won 3-2

                  Net +1.00

                  Hedge -0.5 units
                  Comment
                  • Covering the #
                    SBR Wise Guy
                    • 02-19-17
                    • 967

                    #10
                    Originally posted by Covering the #
                    Miami/over 8.5 +450 half unit

                    Miami/under 9.5 +410 half unit

                    3 way run total 9 +600 0.1 unit

                    Miami is +210 for reference

                    Will update records later tonight
                    Miami wins 3-2

                    Net +1.45

                    Hedge -0.65 units
                    Last edited by Covering the #; 06-29-24, 10:18 PM.
                    Comment
                    • Covering the #
                      SBR Wise Guy
                      • 02-19-17
                      • 967

                      #11
                      Overall +4.95 units

                      Hedging -1.59 units

                      Parlays 4-4 +5.35 units

                      Exactas 0-4 -0.4 units

                      I will try up to 10 games to see if I can middle anything to try and see if this is a waste of time or not. Can't use listed pitchers for this type of betting so that's why I usually wait to make sure lineups and pitchers don't change.
                      Last edited by Covering the #; 06-29-24, 10:20 PM.
                      Comment
                      • Covering the #
                        SBR Wise Guy
                        • 02-19-17
                        • 967

                        #12
                        Had a small accounting error on hedging and is fixed now. Didn't change the overall units at all.
                        Comment
                        • Covering the #
                          SBR Wise Guy
                          • 02-19-17
                          • 967

                          #13
                          Getting this in now. Remember all these plays are action, no listed pitchers. Need to strike when the exacta totals land on an odd number if possible. Haven't always done that in this thread but keep it in mind because an even total requires the dog to win by at least 2. Almost played Reds but the exacta moved off 9 to 8 a bit before I could do anything.

                          Arizona/over 8.5 +340 half unit

                          Arizona/under 9.5 +350 half unit

                          3 way run total 9 +650 0.1 unit

                          Arizona is +160 for reference
                          Comment
                          • Sund
                            SBR Rookie
                            • 01-18-24
                            • 41

                            #14
                            Just came across this ; I’ll tail tonight
                            Comment
                            • Covering the #
                              SBR Wise Guy
                              • 02-19-17
                              • 967

                              #15
                              Originally posted by Covering the #
                              Getting this in now. Remember all these plays are action, no listed pitchers. Need to strike when the exacta totals land on an odd number if possible. Haven't always done that in this thread but keep it in mind because an even total requires the dog to win by at least 2. Almost played Reds but the exacta moved off 9 to 8 a bit before I could do anything.

                              Arizona/over 8.5 +340 half unit

                              Arizona/under 9.5 +350 half unit

                              3 way run total 9 +650 0.1 unit

                              Arizona is +160 for reference
                              Bad beat central. One out away with nobody on base from hitting a middle, not to mention the Reds game would've middled had I not waited too late. Az loses 6-5, net -1.1 units. Since dog lost, only the exacta will count in the hedging units.

                              Overall +3.85 units

                              Hedging -1.69 units

                              Parlays 4-6 +4.35 units

                              Exactas 0-5 -0.5 units
                              Comment
                              • RErunSHORTcut
                                SBR Rookie
                                • 04-11-23
                                • 23

                                #16
                                up 400 ish units is possible if you make small bets before i uh load up again isn't it
                                Comment
                                • Sund
                                  SBR Rookie
                                  • 01-18-24
                                  • 41

                                  #17
                                  Anything for today ?
                                  Comment
                                  • RErunSHORTcut
                                    SBR Rookie
                                    • 04-11-23
                                    • 23

                                    #18
                                    Cin reds or Phillys haven't decided which im just gonna pick 1

                                    fading the yankees or cubs, get to fade one of the games
                                    Comment
                                    • Sund
                                      SBR Rookie
                                      • 01-18-24
                                      • 41

                                      #19
                                      Covering the #s what say you for today
                                      Comment
                                      • Covering the #
                                        SBR Wise Guy
                                        • 02-19-17
                                        • 967

                                        #20
                                        Originally posted by Sund
                                        Anything for today ?
                                        Probably nothing today. Lean Reds but they don't hit lefties as well as righties, their better bullpen guys were used yesterday and may not be available today, plus they won yesterday so a decent size dog winning 2 in a row on the road is not as likely to happen.

                                        I won't make plays every day in this thread but a small dog that I do like would be the Cards. But going 1-1 on a parlay split wouldn't even get a full unit in return so I don't use anything in this thread that would guarantee at least a full unit in return.
                                        Comment
                                        • Optional
                                          Administrator
                                          • 06-10-10
                                          • 61390

                                          #21
                                          Originally posted by Covering the #
                                          Bad beat central. One out away with nobody on base from hitting a middle, not to mention the Reds game would've middled had I not waited too late. Az loses 6-5, net -1.1 units. Since dog lost, only the exacta will count in the hedging units.

                                          Overall +3.85 units

                                          Hedging -1.69 units

                                          Parlays 4-6 +4.35 units

                                          Exactas 0-5 -0.5 units
                                          You're picking well even if the exotic end isnt cashing so far. Only need to middle 1 in 15ish to make it worthwhile.
                                          .
                                          Comment
                                          • Covering the #
                                            SBR Wise Guy
                                            • 02-19-17
                                            • 967

                                            #22
                                            Originally posted by Covering the #
                                            Probably nothing today. Lean Reds but they don't hit lefties as well as righties, their better bullpen guys were used yesterday and may not be available today, plus they won yesterday so a decent size dog winning 2 in a row on the road is not as likely to happen.

                                            I won't make plays every day in this thread but a small dog that I do like would be the Cards. But going 1-1 on a parlay split wouldn't even get a full unit in return so I don't use anything in this thread that would guarantee at least a full unit in return.
                                            Bad wording by me above but I assume everyone understands. Here's what I meant to convey. I don't use a small dog hedge parlay unless I can get a guaranteed return of at least even money. And even then, that'll be few and far between because I'm usually looking for dogs pregame +150 or above that I think have a decent shot. Circumstances are always considered at time of bets. Sometimes I like something but the splits don't make sense and I will pass but this is mostly a pilot test. The exacta is an added twist to get a chunk back in case dog loses outright, but if we hit a perfect middle or two here and there, it's going to be worth it.
                                            Comment
                                            • Covering the #
                                              SBR Wise Guy
                                              • 02-19-17
                                              • 967

                                              #23
                                              Originally posted by Optional
                                              You're picking well even if the exotic end isnt cashing so far. Only need to middle 1 in 15ish to make it worthwhile.
                                              Thanks. Yeah, figure I'd try something new and see if there's more money in the long run on this. I've never tried this before, but after several beers one night on strategy I figured it was worth a trial run.
                                              Comment
                                              • Optional
                                                Administrator
                                                • 06-10-10
                                                • 61390

                                                #24
                                                It is. It's a cool idea worth testing.

                                                Books might have odds weighted to defeat you, but wont know if don't test it.
                                                .
                                                Comment
                                                • Sund
                                                  SBR Rookie
                                                  • 01-18-24
                                                  • 41

                                                  #25
                                                  Reds & Phillies both hit ! Awesome
                                                  Comment
                                                  • Covering the #
                                                    SBR Wise Guy
                                                    • 02-19-17
                                                    • 967

                                                    #26
                                                    Angels/over 8.5 +320 half unit

                                                    Angels/under 9.5 +380 half unit

                                                    3 way run total 9 +650 0.1 unit

                                                    Angels are +160 for reference
                                                    Comment
                                                    • Covering the #
                                                      SBR Wise Guy
                                                      • 02-19-17
                                                      • 967

                                                      #27
                                                      Originally posted by Covering the #
                                                      Angels/over 8.5 +320 half unit

                                                      Angels/under 9.5 +380 half unit

                                                      3 way run total 9 +650 0.1 unit

                                                      Angels are +160 for reference
                                                      First trash pick that never had a chance. Based it mostly against Cubs not to win two games in a row. Net -1.1 units.

                                                      Overall +2.75 units

                                                      Hedging -1.79 units

                                                      Parlays 4-8 +3.35 units

                                                      3 way run totals 0-6 -0.6 units
                                                      Comment
                                                      • JohnGalt2341
                                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                                        • 12-31-09
                                                        • 9138

                                                        #28
                                                        Interesting idea. How many total plays have you made so far?
                                                        Comment
                                                        • Covering the #
                                                          SBR Wise Guy
                                                          • 02-19-17
                                                          • 967

                                                          #29
                                                          Originally posted by JohnGalt2341
                                                          Interesting idea. How many total plays have you made so far?
                                                          Six games of 2 parlays and a 3 way run total. Dog is 4-2 straight up.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • Tomatero
                                                            SBR Wise Guy
                                                            • 05-06-17
                                                            • 610

                                                            #30
                                                            Leggo ⚾
                                                            Comment
                                                            • Covering the #
                                                              SBR Wise Guy
                                                              • 02-19-17
                                                              • 967

                                                              #31
                                                              Notice the two dogs that didn't win to at least split a parlay in this thread won convincingly the next day game as dogs. May try a chase system and bet any dog that loses and are still a dog next game against same team. Something to think about at least.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • Covering the #
                                                                SBR Wise Guy
                                                                • 02-19-17
                                                                • 967

                                                                #32
                                                                White Sox/over 8.5 +360 half unit

                                                                White Sox/under 9.5 +330 half unit

                                                                3 way run total 9 +650 0.1 unit

                                                                White Sox are +170 for reference

                                                                White Sox were +160 when I paired it with the over, then waited to see if I could get a better number on the under, but by then the odds went to +180 so I'm averaging it to +170 for record keeping.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • Covering the #
                                                                  SBR Wise Guy
                                                                  • 02-19-17
                                                                  • 967

                                                                  #33
                                                                  Originally posted by Covering the #
                                                                  White Sox/over 8.5 +360 half unit

                                                                  White Sox/under 9.5 +330 half unit

                                                                  3 way run total 9 +650 0.1 unit

                                                                  White Sox are +170 for reference

                                                                  White Sox were +160 when I paired it with the over, then waited to see if I could get a better number on the under, but by then the odds went to +180 so I'm averaging it to +170 for record keeping.
                                                                  Tough loss for Sox. If they win tomorrow I'll be pissed.

                                                                  Overall +1.65

                                                                  Hedging -1.89

                                                                  Parlays 4-10 +2.35

                                                                  3 way run totals 0-7 (-0.7)
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • Covering the #
                                                                    SBR Wise Guy
                                                                    • 02-19-17
                                                                    • 967

                                                                    #34
                                                                    Trying something a bit different tonight but same kind of strategy. Will for sure chase Rockies tomorrow if they lose tonight.

                                                                    Rockies +160 for 1 unit

                                                                    3 way run total exactly 9 +650 for 0.1 unit

                                                                    3 team parlay Rockies/over 8.5/under 9.5 +1800 for 0.1 unit
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • Covering the #
                                                                      SBR Wise Guy
                                                                      • 02-19-17
                                                                      • 967

                                                                      #35
                                                                      Originally posted by Covering the #
                                                                      Trying something a bit different tonight but same kind of strategy. Will for sure chase Rockies tomorrow if they lose tonight.

                                                                      Rockies +160 for 1 unit

                                                                      3 way run total exactly 9 +650 for 0.1 unit

                                                                      3 team parlay Rockies/over 8.5/under 9.5 +1800 for 0.1 unit
                                                                      Almost hit the middle, then almost lost the damn game within minutes. Will probably do a few more of these 3 teamers instead of the 2 teamers because it's getting real hard to find anything +330 or better on both sides of a total. Of course that's means there will be 1.2 units in play instead of 1.1 for the original way. Net +1.4 today with breakdown of thread below:

                                                                      Overall +3.05

                                                                      Hedging -2.09

                                                                      2 teamers 4-10 +2.35

                                                                      3 teamers 0-1 (-0.10)

                                                                      Straight bets 1-0 +1.60

                                                                      3 way run totals 0-8 (-0.80)

                                                                      Dogs are 5-3 +5.14 in this thread had I played them all as straight bets for extra info
                                                                      Comment
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