September Systems - Let's make 20

oda11 · 09-02-09, 10:52 AM

With you on the Min TT over, good luck with your system rest of the way.

Panekkkk · 09-02-09, 11:10 AM

Thanks oda! August was unkind. Hoping that September turns things around!!!

Panekkkk · 09-02-09, 02:16 PM

Originally posted by Panekkkk

So, I've decided to make a thread to try and reach 20 units for the month of September based on a variety of September systems that have proven profitable over the last 5 years. 20 is the target, 30 would be nice. I will sprinkle in some other plays I like as we go along.

Yesterday, Rangers and Jays Under 9.5 1st GM was the 1st play of September for these systems. I didn't have a chance to start the thread yesterday, but I'm counting that as +1.00 unit.

September Systems

1-0 +1.00 units

Today:

MIN TT OVER 3.5 -122 1.5 Units

NY/BAL U 10 -125 1 Unit *Fits a very strong unders system, atlhough of course there is some hesitation with this one with Berken on the mound, but the kid has shown some better stuff lately and if Sabathia can limit the Orioles to 3 or under, Yankees could take this 6-3.

Figures that my first non system play doesn't hit! Debated where I should just stick to system plays... Unfortunately Minny's two best hitters vs. Buerlhe rode the pine (Gomez and Young).

System plays 1-1 -.25 Units
Non system plays 0-1 -1.80 Units
Overall YTD 1-2 -2.05 units

oda11 · 09-02-09, 02:19 PM

Team total

Let's get'em in later games bud.

Panekkkk · 09-02-09, 03:37 PM

Don't know how I overlooked the SD/WSH game under!

DeeWizzle · 09-02-09, 03:55 PM

Its probably a good thing you did

keyboarding · 09-02-09, 04:11 PM

Interesting choice to make September your statement month. Good luck to you.

Panekkkk · 09-02-09, 07:17 PM

Originally posted by keyboarding

Interesting choice to make September your statement month. Good luck to you.

After crunching lots of data one thing I've noticed is that September is big on Under systems. When teams are pushing for playoff spots the pitching usually becomes tighter as opposed to the bats becoming heavier

obamaismyuncle · 09-02-09, 07:21 PM

Just my opinion but for myself July is the month to make the cash, stretch run, right after the All Star break.

Panekkkk · 09-02-09, 09:16 PM

3-2 heading into the ninth and Baltimore relievers can't even hold the Yanks to under 5 runs. 0-2 tonight. On to tomorrow.

Panekkkk · 09-03-09, 11:25 AM

Some tough love last night with the Yankees scoring 6 runs in the top of the 9th blowing the Under. On to some other system plays ... This is more an experiment in fun. Gonna stop capping and just play some systems/trends. Starting slow but we'll see how things go :P

September 3rd

Red Sox +115 (System is 4-1 this year, 24-8 last 5)
Yankees -128 (System is 20-0 since the all-star break -- a little iffy on this one but I won't fight perfection)

System plays 1-1 -.25 u
Non system plays 0-1 -1.80 u
Overall YTD 1-2 -2.05 u

Panekkkk · 09-03-09, 10:12 PM

Originally posted by Panekkkk

Some tough love last night with the Yankees scoring 6 runs in the top of the 9th blowing the Under. On to some other system plays ... This is more an experiment in fun. Gonna stop capping and just play some systems/trends. Starting slow but we'll see how things go :P

September 3rd

Red Sox +115 (System is 4-1 this year, 24-8 last 5)

Yankees -128 (System is 20-0 since the all-star break -- a little iffy on this one but I won't fight perfection)

System plays 3-1 1.75 u
Non system plays 0-1 -1.80 u
Overall YTD 3-2 -.05 u

oda11 · 09-03-09, 10:16 PM

Panekkkk · 09-04-09, 08:36 AM

Nice rebound yesterday. Sticking to just system plays now.

September 4, 2009

2 * Phillies -120 (System is 4-1 in 2009, 33-11 last 5)

On the surface this seems like a difficult pick, but looking deeper I'm gonna have to side with the Phils. Phillies dominate left-handed pitching, much more so than right-handed, winning at a 27-14 clip (66% win ratio). The Phils team hitting % and slugging % are both improved versus LHP. Could be a close game but I wouldn't be surprised to see the Phils take this by 2 runs or more. They need to start getting the offense clicking. They've faced only 2 lefties in their last 10 games and both those games ended up in W's. Only thing throwing this off, is that Rodriguez is 10-2 at home, but all starts were versus. RHPs. I'll take the better pitcher and the team that needs wins.

System plays 3-1 +1.75 u.

Panekkkk · 09-04-09, 08:56 PM

Got greedy with this one. Lee lets the bottom of the order single before giving up a double to Wandy Rodriguez which allowed the Stro's to break loose... Another one of those unbelievable events that happen in baseball so frequently. Hit on TEX and FLA to make it back but I'm still HATING the Phils right now. They have cost me a lot lately!!!

DMB40 · 09-05-09, 10:13 AM

Who do you like today panekkk?

Panekkkk · 09-05-09, 11:11 AM

Not much time to go into details today:

But today we got

2 * Tampa Bay (STRONG) System is 34-1 since 2008 (Bet Rays in GM2 if they did not win GM1 at home by 4 or more runs)
1 * Athletics (Avoiding sweep; System is 20-9 this year)
Also have a system telling me to fade the Cubbies but not sure how I feel about that, so I'm leaving it off

Will update record later

Panekkkk · 09-05-09, 07:07 PM

Originally posted by Panekkkk

Nice rebound yesterday. Sticking to just system plays now.

September 4, 2009

2 * Phillies -120 (System is 4-1 in 2009, 33-11 last 5)

On the surface this seems like a difficult pick, but looking deeper I'm gonna have to side with the Phils. Phillies dominate left-handed pitching, much more so than right-handed, winning at a 27-14 clip (66% win ratio). The Phils team hitting % and slugging % are both improved versus LHP. Could be a close game but I wouldn't be surprised to see the Phils take this by 2 runs or more. They need to start getting the offense clicking. They've faced only 2 lefties in their last 10 games and both those games ended up in W's. Only thing throwing this off, is that Rodriguez is 10-2 at home, but all starts were versus. RHPs. I'll take the better pitcher and the team that needs wins.

System plays 3-2 -0.25u.

No more betting on Phils... Today's plays looking nice though. With such a strong system I shoulda gone much heavier on the Rays!

CashMoney · 09-05-09, 10:34 PM

Panekkkk · 09-06-09, 11:51 AM

Rough loss by TB, 3* Angels/Royals O8.5 To make it back :P

Panekkkk · 09-06-09, 02:53 PM

Originally posted by panekkkk

not much time to go into details today:

But today we got

2 * tampa bay (strong) system is 34-1 since 2008 (bet rays in gm2 if they did not win gm1 at home by 4 or more runs)

1 * athletics (avoiding sweep; system is 20-9 this year)

Also have a system telling me to fade the cubbies but not sure how i feel about that, so i'm leaving it off

rough loss by tb, 3* angels/royals o8.5 to make it back

ytd 5-3 +0.39

Angels game goes over in 5th!

Panekkkk · 09-08-09, 09:28 AM

3 * Red Sox -1 -167 (System is 14-0 since 2008 = Red Sox in series game 1 at home after losing by 2 or more the previous game)

ytd 5-3 +0.39

Panekkkk · 09-08-09, 09:57 PM

Originally posted by Panekkkk

3 * Red Sox -1 -167 (System is 14-0 since 2008 = Red Sox in series game 1 at home after losing by 2 or more the previous game)

ytd 5-3 +0.39

YTD 6-3 +3.39

Red Sox got it done in fashion. That system remains perfect since 2008!