Nasher's Month Long (to the All-Star Break) MLB Thread

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  • stevenash
    Moderator
    • 01-17-11
    • 65518

    #1
    Nasher's Month Long (to the All-Star Break) MLB Thread
    I don't have the time to maintain a six month plus MLB thread here, I can do a month long thread up to the break (today is 6/18, the break is in in 30 days, the All Star Game is 7/19)

    I'll take it monthly (time permitting) from there,

    6/18
    One play

    Baltimore over 3.5 runs scored

    O's have been raking LHP lately.
    TB starts LHP Jeffrey Springs.
    Springs is a long reliever/spot starter who has been making rotation starts as of late.
    This will be Springs 17th appearance this season/9th start.

    Not going to sugar coat it, Springs has a live arm, and his last two have been sharp.
    He's not Sandy Koufax, nor Jimmy Key for that matter, is hittable, and is a five and fly spot starter.
    TB's bullpen for all intents and purposes has been downgraded from solid to mediocre this season, the TB bullpen metrics are pretty much mediocre.

    The way Baltimore has been hitting left handed pitching lately, the price is right at +100 (Heritage) team total over 3.5 runs.

    Baltimore home +150 has value too.
    If I add it, it'll be before game time.

    Respectful fades are always welcome.

    I'll walk away at the first sign of troll posting though.
    No questions asked or answered.
    It's just not worth it.

    Best of luck all.
  • risKingDigits
    SBR Sharp
    • 12-22-21
    • 467

    #2
    good to see Steve Nash still dropping dimes!

    GL
    Comment
    • DiggityDaggityDo
      SBR Aristocracy
      • 11-30-08
      • 81450

      #3
      This is where the magic happens
      Comment
      • stevenash
        Moderator
        • 01-17-11
        • 65518

        #4
        Man on second, still no out.
        2-0 O's bottom of the second.
        Need two more runs.

        Play-by-play action for the Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles MLB game from June 18, 2022 on ESPN.
        Comment
        • stevenash
          Moderator
          • 01-17-11
          • 65518

          #5
          Originally posted by risKingDigits
          good to see Steve Nash still dropping dimes!

          GL
          Thanks bro.
          Comment
          • stevenash
            Moderator
            • 01-17-11
            • 65518

            #6
            Originally posted by DiggityDaggityDo
            This is where the magic happens
            Thanks Daggles.

            Comment
            • stevenash
              Moderator
              • 01-17-11
              • 65518

              #7
              6-5 fifth inning.

              Got it.
              Comment
              • consom888
                SBR High Roller
                • 06-07-22
                • 129

                #8
                Thank you for sharing Ser Nasher
                Comment
                • stevenash
                  Moderator
                  • 01-17-11
                  • 65518

                  #9
                  Originally posted by consom888
                  Thank you for sharing Ser Nasher
                  Glad to help.
                  Comment
                  • DiggityDaggityDo
                    SBR Aristocracy
                    • 11-30-08
                    • 81450

                    #10
                    Originally posted by stevenash
                    6-5 fifth inning.

                    Got it.
                    Comment
                    • 1sob
                      SBR Wise Guy
                      • 10-20-11
                      • 538

                      #11
                      nice hit Nash
                      Comment
                      • stevenash
                        Moderator
                        • 01-17-11
                        • 65518

                        #12
                        Originally posted by 1sob
                        nice hit Nash
                        Thanks.
                        Comment
                        • italianbandit
                          SBR MVP
                          • 05-17-11
                          • 2622

                          #13
                          Nash, you’re giving trolls too much power by saying you’ll stop posting at the first sign of one posting.
                          Good luck, have fun.
                          Comment
                          • Ra77er
                            SBR Posting Legend
                            • 06-20-11
                            • 10969

                            #14
                            Subscribed

                            Let's have some fun
                            Comment
                            • stevenash
                              Moderator
                              • 01-17-11
                              • 65518

                              #15
                              Originally posted by italianbandit
                              Nash, you’re giving trolls too much power by saying you’ll stop posting at the first sign of one posting.
                              Good luck, have fun.
                              Thanks for the wishes, as I am having fun.

                              (trust me, I know what I'm doing when I said that. Trust me)

                              Looking at this tricky card today.

                              The feature game tonight is a good one, terrific matchup there.
                              I've been following both Kopech and Javier's career from the jump.

                              Kopech is filthy and Javier is a strikeout artist, there are plenty of good props there.
                              I'll be paying attention to tonight's game.

                              I'll be back with a play or two.

                              Thanks again for the post.
                              Comment
                              • stevenash
                                Moderator
                                • 01-17-11
                                • 65518

                                #16
                                Yesterday's play was successful
                                1-0 MTD (+100)

                                All plays are 1* (!00)
                                My range is 1* to 3*
                                Unless specified all plays are 1*


                                6/19

                                SD Padres First Five Innings over Colorado
                                -0.5 runs -110

                                Two reasons
                                Senzatela (Col) is a punching bag, his 2022 metrics rank near bottom of all qualified starting pitchers.
                                SD lineup should have no problem.

                                Snell (SD) has proven success against Colorado batting.
                                99 plate appearances is enough of a sample size, 89
                                Rox are 24 for 89 (.229) lifetime v. Snell (only 2 HR, 10 walks)

                                SD -0.5 runs FF -110 is my play today1*
                                Comment
                                • 1sob
                                  SBR Wise Guy
                                  • 10-20-11
                                  • 538

                                  #17
                                  thanks
                                  Comment
                                  • stevenash
                                    Moderator
                                    • 01-17-11
                                    • 65518

                                    #18
                                    MTD
                                    1-1

                                    6/21
                                    Playing LA Angels/KC Royals UNDER 9.5

                                    Both teams struggling to hit
                                    As a KC Royals fan I know Heasley is hit or miss, counting on him to keep the Angles bats at bay as Heasly does have good stuff.
                                    Angels start lefty Detmer, as a Royals fan I know KC struggles vs. LHP, .233 as a team overall.

                                    All signs point to an under 9.5
                                    Comment
                                    • DiggityDaggityDo
                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                      • 11-30-08
                                      • 81450

                                      #19
                                      Good luck Nasher
                                      Comment
                                      • stevenash
                                        Moderator
                                        • 01-17-11
                                        • 65518

                                        #20
                                        Originally posted by DiggityDaggityDo
                                        Good luck Nasher
                                        Thanks Dags.
                                        I might play KC too at a nice price, but the under is already locked in.
                                        Comment
                                        • TooBrokeToBetBig
                                          SBR Rookie
                                          • 06-18-22
                                          • 20

                                          #21
                                          Originally posted by stevenash
                                          MTD
                                          1-1

                                          6/21
                                          Playing LA Angels/KC Royals UNDER 9.5

                                          Both teams struggling to hit
                                          As a KC Royals fan I know Heasley is hit or miss, counting on him to keep the Angles bats at bay as Heasly does have good stuff.
                                          Angels start lefty Detmer, as a Royals fan I know KC struggles vs. LHP, .233 as a team overall.

                                          All signs point to an under 9.5
                                          Dang it. I saw this after I already booked my over plays. You make some good points.

                                          Live and learn I guess. I could've read the threads first.
                                          Comment
                                          • shadymcgrady
                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                            • 02-27-12
                                            • 10036

                                            #22
                                            Good luck tonight Nash
                                            Comment
                                            • stevenash
                                              Moderator
                                              • 01-17-11
                                              • 65518

                                              #23
                                              Originally posted by shadymcgrady
                                              Good luck tonight Nash
                                              Thanks borther.
                                              Comment
                                              • stevenash
                                                Moderator
                                                • 01-17-11
                                                • 65518

                                                #24
                                                Originally posted by TooBrokeToBetBig
                                                Dang it. I saw this after I already booked my over plays. You make some good points.

                                                Live and learn I guess. I could've read the threads first.
                                                As I like to say, the good news is if I'm wrong, you win.

                                                It's all good, I welcome respectful fades.
                                                I'm not the be all end all.

                                                I do target games that feature LHP.
                                                I used to be a catcher, lefties are a totally different animal.
                                                They come at you from all sorts of funky angles.
                                                I was a dead red right handed contact line drive type hitter.
                                                Dead pull hitter I was.
                                                LHP drove me bat shit crazy, catching them was an adventure too.

                                                Anyways, like I said, I am not the be all, end all.

                                                Three things are certain.
                                                God is perfect
                                                Father Time and Mother Nature are undefeated still and will never be beaten.
                                                The rest of us are flesh and blood. Mere mortals.

                                                Make some cash tonight dude, rooting for you.
                                                Comment
                                                • stevenash
                                                  Moderator
                                                  • 01-17-11
                                                  • 65518

                                                  #25
                                                  Heasly's throwing a gem through five, walks the first two in the sixth, Ohtani up. you can guess the rest.

                                                  Oh well, shit happens.

                                                  Tomorrow's another day.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • stevenash
                                                    Moderator
                                                    • 01-17-11
                                                    • 65518

                                                    #26
                                                    MTD
                                                    1-2

                                                    6/22
                                                    Playing Oakland A's +121

                                                    Couple of reasons here.
                                                    I like home dogs.
                                                    Now it's usually risky business to back the Oakland A's, I do like the spot they're in tonight.

                                                    a) Home dogs, the price is right at +121 (Heritage)
                                                    b) Backburn has been solid this season, his last two starts he's been razor sharp.
                                                    c) M's aren't hitting.

                                                    Oakland, at home +121 is my play
                                                    Last edited by stevenash; 06-22-22, 03:23 PM.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • 1sob
                                                      SBR Wise Guy
                                                      • 10-20-11
                                                      • 538

                                                      #27
                                                      good luck on this play
                                                      Comment
                                                      • stevenash
                                                        Moderator
                                                        • 01-17-11
                                                        • 65518

                                                        #28
                                                        Appreciate that, thanks.

                                                        I'm hardly an NHL expert but I'm, on TB as well.
                                                        Best of luck to you as well.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • italianbandit
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 05-17-11
                                                          • 2622

                                                          #29
                                                          Good luck Nash, I can’t back the As right now, their owners and fans have abandoned them. They are soul less.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • stevenash
                                                            Moderator
                                                            • 01-17-11
                                                            • 65518

                                                            #30
                                                            Originally posted by italianbandit
                                                            Good luck Nash, I can’t back the As right now, their owners and fans have abandoned them. They are soul less.
                                                            And they're getting killed.
                                                            Oof, I'm, snake bit right now.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • consom888
                                                              SBR High Roller
                                                              • 06-07-22
                                                              • 129

                                                              #31
                                                              Ups and downs nasher, ‘it’s variance. Appreciate you sharing !
                                                              Comment
                                                              • stevenash
                                                                Moderator
                                                                • 01-17-11
                                                                • 65518

                                                                #32
                                                                Originally posted by consom888
                                                                Ups and downs nasher, ‘it’s variance. Appreciate you sharing !
                                                                Appreciate the encouragement.
                                                                I hate that word 'variance' even though it applies.

                                                                I accept losses because I make my selections on reasoning.
                                                                All the reasoning in the world doesn't always translate into a win some times.

                                                                It's either accept the losses, roll with them, don't let them tilt you, and keep plugging.
                                                                Or quit.
                                                                My dad, the late great military engineer taught me to never quit.

                                                                Have to admit, my last two losses were epic fails, reasoning and all.
                                                                Even I'm laughing at myself.
                                                                Laughter is the best medicine.

                                                                Like I say, I hate the word variance, I can hate the word, but it applies.
                                                                I just hate to blame it on losses.

                                                                I've been writing here for eleven years. overall I've been creative and technical writing much longer than that.

                                                                2014-2015, I couldn't lose, don't take my word for it, ask the regulars here that remember.
                                                                2021-2022, seems I'm snake bit.

                                                                Right now, I'm fading myself lol
                                                                I'll turn it around.
                                                                You win, you lose,

                                                                And so it goes.

                                                                Back later with more thoughts on tonight.

                                                                Once again I appreciate the encouragement.
                                                                Thanks for the post,
                                                                Comment
                                                                • 1sob
                                                                  SBR Wise Guy
                                                                  • 10-20-11
                                                                  • 538

                                                                  #33
                                                                  I've been doing this sports betting for over 25 years over a few forums
                                                                  I've seen great cappers go on a bad losing streak but always bounces back
                                                                  take a step back then come back with a vengeance .
                                                                  losing 2 in a row is nothing .
                                                                  you will start winning again
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • 1sob
                                                                    SBR Wise Guy
                                                                    • 10-20-11
                                                                    • 538

                                                                    #34
                                                                    I've been doing this sports betting for over 25 years over a few forums<br>
                                                                    I've seen great cappers go on a bad losing streak but always bounces back<br>
                                                                    take a step back then come back with a vengeance .<br>
                                                                    losing 2 in a row is nothing .<br>
                                                                    you will start winning again
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • stevenash
                                                                      Moderator
                                                                      • 01-17-11
                                                                      • 65518

                                                                      #35
                                                                      Originally posted by 1sob
                                                                      I've been doing this sports betting for over 25 years over a few forums<br>
                                                                      I've seen great cappers go on a bad losing streak but always bounces back<br>
                                                                      take a step back then come back with a vengeance .<br>
                                                                      losing 2 in a row is nothing .<br>
                                                                      you will start winning again
                                                                      Ditto.

                                                                      Yeah man, you have to take the good with the bad.
                                                                      I go back to basics when on a cooler, single unit flat bets, with basic fundamental handicapping.
                                                                      That seems to always work.



                                                                      Here's a tune I want you to listen too.
                                                                      Spot on lyrics as it applies to us gamblers.

                                                                      Everybody says I'm talking out of my head
                                                                      But nobody badmouths a man with the bread
                                                                      All the whores are gonna drop their drawers
                                                                      And say there goes the man that mugged Santa Claus
                                                                      It pays to be discreet
                                                                      When you're talking to the king of Sunday Street



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