ML+245: the Mets will Beat Cliff Lee Monday!

[Nickelicious]

I am just as stunned to learn this as you are, but the Mets are going to beat the Phillies and Cliff Lee on Monday. After studying this match-up, I see all sorts of holes in conventional wisdom and I'm seeing a 4-3 type of victory for the Mets.

Take a look at the box score of the 4-2 Mets win last Friday (Hamels, LHP vs. Pelfrey RHP) and study the line-ups. It's close to a wash. Study the other box scores in this series, too. The Mets line-up is not that bad, as evidenced by the 7 runs they put up against Pedro and the Phillies pen last night.

Take a close look at this Bobby Purnell kid for the Mets. Yeah, he got shelled in his last game, but look at the body of work, including the gem he spun against the Giants two starts ago.

Cliff Lee will eat up innings, but the Phillies still have Brad Lidge closing (6.90 ERA, 1.77 WHIP), and he would've blown the game last night if not for a triple play that bailed him out.

All of this added up still points to a Phillies win, mostly because Lee has just been on fire since coming to Philadelphia. But all good things hit a bump in the road, and this day game at Citi Field is as good a place as any to hit that bump. The -270 odds on the Phillies is absolutely overpriced.

Best of all, I am covering my +245 ML bet with a +1.5 runline bet at +150! Ha, it only costs me 2 units to win 3 units on the +1.5 RL to cover a 3-unit ML bet that makes over 7 units.

You heard it here first! The Mets win!

This was the first game I looked at for tomorrow, so now I just need somebody to give me another surefire winner so I can go back to the books to parlay it with the Mets and make a killing.

[oda11]

WAYYY too much money on the Phillies tomorrow, it's either Mets or no play for me. Good luck Nick.

[Mikail]

Nickel I think you make a valid point here. The Mets at + is definitely worth a good hard look. If they do prevail against Lee and the Phils the payout to risk ratio is very attractive. I am going to research and cap this a little more. I may jump on board the Mets side. By the way nice write up!

[gambit718]

I am from Queens and a Mets fan, but I can't see them winning at all tommrow. He pitched a gem against the Giants which not nearly the offensive team Phillies are. BOL anyways. We will find out real soon.

[Mikail]

I am from Queens and a Mets fan, but I can't see them winning at all tommrow. He pitched a gem against the Giants which not nearly the offensive team Phillies are. BOL anyways. We will find out real soon.

I agree with you that the Giants are nowhere near the offensive threat the Phils are, but the Mets did put up seven runs against the Phils today. I am not completely sold either way on this game, but if I do play it will be on the Mets. Thanks for your input.

[gambit718]

Your welcome Mikail. I have this capped as a 8-3 Philles victory.

[Nickelicious]

Here's another bit o' evidence that this game will be close: The O/U is at 8. Freakin' 8 runs in the game, Mr. Linesmaker? By golly, I'm gonna bet the over! Good old conventional wisdom says you have to bet the over, Parnell will get slaughtered!

Ah, but Mr. Linesmaker is no dope. He's pulling one of those sucker plays. He knows this game is a 4-3, 5-2 type game, maybe even a pitcher's duel.

Do you see how this O/U helps the Mets as a play? Can you see how getting +1.5 runs on the Mets at +150 odds might work out?

I think I will go pump some more money on that RL. Just to make sure I clear a profit even if the Mets lose by a run. Maybe I can parlay that RL with a good ML dog. Tampa Bay at +130? The White Sox at +160? The Orioles at +200? How about the Nationals at +160, playing at home against the Brewers?

[gambit718]

It is at 8 because Cliff Lee has a chance of pitching a gem and Parnell has a chance of blowing it open. 8 is middle grounds in my eyes. It's really a coin flip.

[Mikail]

Here's another bit o' evidence that this game will be close: The O/U is at 8. Freakin' 8 runs in the game, Mr. Linesmaker? By golly, I'm gonna bet the over! Good old conventional wisdom says you have to bet the over, Parnell will get slaughtered!

Ah, but Mr. Linesmaker is no dope. He's pulling one of those sucker plays. He knows this game is a 4-3, 5-2 type game, maybe even a pitcher's duel.

Do you see how this O/U helps the Mets as a play? Can you see how getting +1.5 runs on the Mets at +150 odds might work out?

I think I will go pump some more money on that RL. Just to make sure I clear a profit even if the Mets lose by a run. Maybe I can parlay that RL with a good ML dog. Tampa Bay at +130? The White Sox at +160? The Orioles at +200? How about the Nationals at +160, playing at home against the Brewers?

Seriously Nickel that Mets RL is looking like a moneymaker. I see definite value in this. The o/u at 8 does suggest a close low scoring game and the Mets+1.5 could very likely cash. If it doesn't then It was worth the risk at those odds as long as we don't play it too heavy!

[Nickelicious]

Seriously Nickel that Mets RL is looking like a moneymaker. I see definite value in this. The o/u at 8 does suggest a close low scoring game and the Mets+1.5 could very likely cash. If it doesn't then It was worth the risk at those odds as long as we don't play it too heavy!

Yes, I don't doubt that this should not be played too heavy. I have 2 units on the RL and 3 on ML, which is plenty heavy, but then I'm in a position where I can afford that kind of risk. All I'm looking for now is a nice dog like the Nats to hook up for a 1 unit parlay on the RL and maybe a half-unit on the ML.

Of course I could be wrong. Anybody can be wrong. But I just perceived a weakness in this heavy favorite and hope I am right.

It's also fun to fantasize about pairing up this up with a ML dog like the Giants with Barry Zito on the mound and parlaying 10 units to win 76.

But I'm not crazy. I swear, I'm not crazy.

[Mikail]

No your not crazy. I see logic in this. The only way this is crazy is if I am crazy too! I haven't locked in a play yet. I am not in no hurry because I don't think there is going to be much line movement in favor of the Mets.

[Nickelicious]

No your not crazy. I see logic in this. The only way this is crazy is if I am crazy too! I haven't locked in a play yet. I am not in no hurry because I don't think there is going to be much line movement in favor of the Mets.

Agreed. If anything, the line will only get better tomorrow, at least I would think. And that goes for other dogs that I might want to parlay with. Dogs usually become bigger dogs overnight. I'll keep an eye on SBR's lines for baseball and see what kind of movement there is by tomorrow morning. Remember, this Phillies game is the first up tomorrow, 1:00 ET, Noon CT.

Edit: It is interesting that right now more money is coming in on the under than the over for this game. There are others who also see this as a pitching duel.

[oda11]

Wow, I guess I am crazy too.

[Down Wind Pheew]

Phillies= 6

Mets= 2

Final Score: End of Story

[Nickelicious]

Phillies= 6
Mets= 2
Final Score: End of Story

Could be, Down Wind, could be.

But since I am crazy, I'm gonna ride this puppy a little further down the road. In addition to the 5 units I have on the ML and RL, I have placed another 1.5 units on micro-parlays that will pay off handsomely if my crazy instinct is accurate. Most of these parlays are on the +1.5 RL for the Mets, but a couple of them are on the ML.



If I wake up tomorrow morning and have no regrets about the wagers above, I will replicate them on my other two books.

But like my chase on the Rangers 24 hours ago that won me almost $1,500 yesterday, these particular dice have been rolled.

[danrman]

parnell got shelled last game cause he knew he was facing lee next... he wont get shelled.. he knew he had this home start vs. lee next and can make a name for himself by pitching well.. you will see his best.. since the mets have already won 1 game in this series the series is still up for grabs... not worth -290 and runlines are for suckers unless your taking the run and a half.. giving it is crazy.. its hard enough to win w/out an extra variable long term

[danrman]

hey nick i see zito in your parlays... i like that play also

[Mikail]

parnell got shelled last game cause he knew he was facing lee next... he wont get shelled.. he knew he had this home start vs. lee next and can make a name for himself by pitching well.. you will see his best.. since the mets have already won 1 game in this series the series is still up for grabs... not worth -290 and runlines are for suckers unless your taking the run and a half.. giving it is crazy.. its hard enough to win w/out an extra variable long term

I agree. This has all the makings of a pitcher's duel. I think I will take my chances on the mets RL. As this very well could be a close game! Just a side note I am a Phillies fan and I am extremely impressed with Cliff Lee.

[Nickelicious]

I agree. This has all the makings of a pitcher's duel. I think I will take my chances on the mets RL. As this very well could be a close game! Just a side note I am a Phillies fan and I am extremely impressed with Cliff Lee.

Actually, I have always liked the Phillies (Cubs fan myself) and I was happy they got the ring last year. Cliff Lee has been phenomenal with them and you guys are going to be hell to deal with in the playoffs. I'm just seeking a tiny bump in the road for Lee and his team this afternoon.

One thing that has always been interesting about Lee is how he progressed through his career to become an ace. He wasn't one of those prodigies that was mowing down line-ups like Kerry Wood at 21 years old. It took him a few years to blossom, which is why he only has 87 career wins at age 30. But once he did find his path, he became rock solid. He's one of those blue-collar types that I root for.

Except for tomorrow.

[Nickelicious]

hey nick i see zito in your parlays... i like that play also

Yes, Zito has made a terrific comeback and seems to have his career back on track. I hope he keeps it up when he faces the Rockies and Jason Marquis later today. He seems like a man on a mission, and the Giants need this win really bad. At +150 ML odds, I'll ride with Zito.

[Mikail]

Yes, Zito has made a terrific comeback and seems to have his career back on track. I hope he keeps it up when he faces the Rockies and Jason Marquis later today. He seems like a man on a mission, and the Giants need this win really bad. At +150 ML odds, I'll ride with Zito.

Zito has looked sharp lately and the Giants are in need of a win today, but so do the Rockies. With Marquis, it won't be easy for the Giants. I see you are riding the dogs for monday. Best of Luck to ya!

[baseballvz]

1.5+ mets today

[clonecat]

Parnell has very good stuff, but can have a problem finding the strike zone. Utley, Werth and Victorino (Feliz if he plays) have great plate discipline. I don't see value in either side of this game.

[ASH0479]

....

Mets = Garbage

Phillies RL yet again...the Mets did score 7 yesterday but that was against Pedro...who is no Cliff Lee...with all the Big guns in for Philly and on the Mets big guns on the DL....this wont be close...

[yisman]

I would not lay the chalk with the Phillies.

It's Mets or nothing.

The line isn't that far off, though.

The Mets have an AAA lineup and Parnell is an AAA-type pitcher.

How are the Mets going to score against Cliff Lee?

If you're going Mets, you may want to parlay with the under. +1.5 and under, maybe?

[oiler]

Your welcome Mikail. I have this capped as a 8-3 Philles victory.

well im a big fan of the over,feel it will be double digits.lee is due for a letdown and parnell,well hes parnell

[SmackdownV]

Good write-ups all around....

I'm on the Philly/Mets OVER 8.5.............(that line does not scare me....parnell is going to get lit the F up today and remember the Mets REALLY used that bullpen the past two days.

Also on the Nats ML

and the Rockies.....F Zito.................he is going against Marquis at home and a hot Rockies team that already disposed of the Number 1 option yesterday.

That Mets OVER is going to win by at least 3 runs today.

[SmackdownV]

We will know in about 20 minutes after the first inning if this over is cash or trash.......

Go Parnell! Get lit up buddy!

[million2one]

Jimmy Rollings not in starting lineup, Bruntlett instead. GL Nick.

[Mikail]

We will know in about 20 minutes after the first inning if this over is cash or trash.......

Go Parnell! Get lit up buddy!

I can even see Lee getting touched early and the Mets putting some runs on the board. How long can he keep this up? He has been near perfect lately!

[SmackdownV]

http://www.freebaseballradio.com/PhiladelphiaAug.html

There is the link for the Philly game......Radio only...

GL everyone.

[SmackdownV]

Milail....

I really think the Mets might win this game with all the money on Philly..............

But the late money in Vegas has gone on the OVER......

That for me is the safe bet today..............If you watched the end of the LA game yesterday...........it was pretty obvious that the "Over" was not to be hit..............someone got that "call" yesterday on that one...

[Panekkkk]

Lidge won't be pitching again today. Lee hasn't lost as a Phil and he will not certainly not lose to the lowly Mets.

[oiler]

http://www.freebaseballradio.com/PhiladelphiaAug.html

There is the link for the Philly game......Radio only...

GL everyone.

it would be great to hit the over real quick and enjoy the rest of the day

[Mikail]

Milail....

I really think the Mets might win this game with all the money on Philly..............

But the late money in Vegas has gone on the OVER......

That for me is the safe bet today..............If you watched the end of the LA game yesterday...........it was pretty obvious that the "Over" was not to be hit..............someone got that "call" yesterday on that one...

I layed lightly on the Mets RL. Let us see how this plays out!