Yankees stay hot in Oakland in series mismatch against A’s

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  • Willie Bee
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 02-14-06
    • 15726

    #1
    Yankees stay hot in Oakland in series mismatch against A’s
    New York Yankees stay hot in Oakland in series mismatch against A’s

    The Yankees have won 23 of their 30 games since the All-Star break and will add at least two more wins this week when they visit the Athletics in Oakland.

    The only way this three-game series could be a bigger mismatch would be if the Yankees were catching the A’s once again on their home turf in New York instead of meeting them at Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum.

    With their pitching staff in total disarray right now, the Athletics have to take on the white-hot Yankees this week, facing New York’s two aces in the process. The series gets underway Monday when A.J. Burnett (16-7, 3.71) faces vs. Brett Tomko (0-0, 5.23), with Tomko making his debut for Oakland and his first start of the season after 15 relief appearances for the Pinstripes earlier this year.

    Game 2 pits C.C. Sabathia (14-11, 3.64) against Vin Mazzaro (5-9, 5.54) with the A’s finally catching a break with a more even pitching matchup in the series finale on Wednesday when Chad Gaudin (7-12, 5.03) is slated for New York opposite Oakland’s Brett Anderson (10-12, 4.55).

    The Yankees are 5-1 vs. A's this year, with all six games played in New York. Since the start of the '08 season, NY has a 10-2 edge against the Athletics, winning two of three played in Oakland last season.

    New York is averaging over 5½ runs per game on the season while Oakland is almost full run lower, no doubt the two parks playing into this statistic. The Yankees lead the AL with 182 homers while the Athletics (98) and Royals (97) are the only two AL teams yet to have eclipsed the century mark in long balls. Again, the ballparks are part of that.


    With the Yanks sporting a 23-7 record since the All-Star break, this is one time that gambling stats can truly illustrate how solid a team has been. Forget ERA, OPS and any other baseball statistic for a little bit and chew on these numbers:
    • Since the All-Star break, New York is 20-7 as a -110 favorite or higher.
    • They have covered the -1½ run line 16 times in that span.
    • The only three times they were not a -110 or higher favorite, they won all three games and covered the run line in each contest (July 29 at Tampa, 6-2 as +105 dogs; Aug 4 at Toronto, 5-3 as +136 dogs, and; Aug 5 at Toronto, 8-4 as a -105 pick 'em).
    Now, do I recommend eating all of the chalk that will be on the board in this series? No. Let's start with the fact I never recommend anyone tail my picks based on the notion that I might just happen to know what in the hell I'm doing. Let's now segue to the simple fact my inner cheapskate can rarely find any 'value' in laying anything over -160 for a single game or -200 in a series. Understand that part of my calculation of value is the enjoyment I get out of winning a wager. While I'm always happy to put extra dead presidents in my pocket, there really isn't much joy in some huge favorite cashing and the added stress sometimes during a game I'm riding the big fave just ain't good for my health.

    At the same time it's very difficult to resist trying to add some value to a wager on a team that is just hotter than a $2 pistol.

    There doesn’t appear to be any chance of a rainout in any of the games according to current forecasts, so that just leaves two reasons why New York won’t take two of three: An earthquake or the Yankees looking past this series to their meeting in Boston with the Red Sox this weekend. Put me down for one unit on the Yankees in the series at -225, another on the run line tonight and possibly a second RL wager in Tuesday’s contest.
  • oiler
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 06-06-09
    • 6585

    #2
    Originally posted by Willie Bee
    New York Yankees stay hot in Oakland in series mismatch against A’s

    The Yankees have won 23 of their 30 games since the All-Star break and will add at least two more wins this week when they visit the Athletics in Oakland.

    The only way this three-game series could be a bigger mismatch would be if the Yankees were catching the A’s once again on their home turf in New York instead of meeting them at Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum.

    With their pitching staff in total disarray right now, the Athletics have to take on the white-hot Yankees this week, facing New York’s two aces in the process. The series gets underway Monday when A.J. Burnett (16-7, 3.71) faces vs. Brett Tomko (0-0, 5.23), with Tomko making his debut for Oakland and his first start of the season after 15 relief appearances for the Pinstripes earlier this year.

    Game 2 pits C.C. Sabathia (14-11, 3.64) against Vin Mazzaro (5-9, 5.54) with the A’s finally catching a break with a more even pitching matchup in the series finale on Wednesday when Chad Gaudin (7-12, 5.03) is slated for New York opposite Oakland’s Brett Anderson (10-12, 4.55).

    The Yankees are 5-1 vs. A's this year, with all six games played in New York. Since the start of the '08 season, NY has a 10-2 edge against the Athletics, winning two of three played in Oakland last season.

    New York is averaging over 5½ runs per game on the season while Oakland is almost full run lower, no doubt the two parks playing into this statistic. The Yankees lead the AL with 182 homers while the Athletics (98) and Royals (97) are the only two AL teams yet to have eclipsed the century mark in long balls. Again, the ballparks are part of that.


    With the Yanks sporting a 23-7 record since the All-Star break, this is one time that gambling stats can truly illustrate how solid a team has been. Forget ERA, OPS and any other baseball statistic for a little bit and chew on these numbers:
    • Since the All-Star break, New York is 20-7 as a -110 favorite or higher.
    • They have covered the -1½ run line 16 times in that span.
    • The only three times they were not a -110 or higher favorite, they won all three games and covered the run line in each contest (July 29 at Tampa, 6-2 as +105 dogs; Aug 4 at Toronto, 5-3 as +136 dogs, and; Aug 5 at Toronto, 8-4 as a -105 pick 'em).
    Now, do I recommend eating all of the chalk that will be on the board in this series? No. Let's start with the fact I never recommend anyone tail my picks based on the notion that I might just happen to know what in the hell I'm doing. Let's now segue to the simple fact my inner cheapskate can rarely find any 'value' in laying anything over -160 for a single game or -200 in a series. Understand that part of my calculation of value is the enjoyment I get out of winning a wager. While I'm always happy to put extra dead presidents in my pocket, there really isn't much joy in some huge favorite cashing and the added stress sometimes during a game I'm riding the big fave just ain't good for my health.

    At the same time it's very difficult to resist trying to add some value to a wager on a team that is just hotter than a $2 pistol.

    There doesn’t appear to be any chance of a rainout in any of the games according to current forecasts, so that just leaves two reasons why New York won’t take two of three: An earthquake or the Yankees looking past this series to their meeting in Boston with the Red Sox this weekend. Put me down for one unit on the Yankees in the series at -225, another on the run line tonight and possibly a second RL wager in Tuesday’s contest.
    well burnett is the closest thing to a lock in baseball in this series
    Comment
    • HotStreak
      SBR MVP
      • 05-12-09
      • 3235

      #3
      The Yanks are a mismatch for everyone right now!

      Thanks for the info Willie Bee.
      Comment
      • MilfDriller
        Restricted User
        • 11-23-08
        • 10186

        #4
        should be a good over available in one of these games
        Comment
        • brandon m
          SBR Wise Guy
          • 07-06-09
          • 604

          #5
          Nice write up Willie, you should be a salesman! You sold me I'm taking the runline for the first 2.
          Comment
          • Willie Bee
            SBR Posting Legend
            • 02-14-06
            • 15726

            #6
            Originally posted by HotStreak
            The Yanks are a mismatch for everyone right now!
            That's true. About the only hotter streaks I can remember in recent times are the Rockies at the end of '07, the Astros down the stretch in '04 and the A's in June-July of 2005.
            Comment
            • pavyracer
              SBR Aristocracy
              • 04-12-07
              • 82815

              #7
              Not so sure. Yankees outfield is decimated. If Oakland can hit the huge holes in the outfield they can burn the Yankees tonight.
              Comment
              • Enogsiwon
                Restricted User
                • 06-15-09
                • 4075

                #8
                The A's will lay off Burnetts slider and do better than you think.. But what does the King know?
                Comment
                • Xpertcapper
                  SBR Wise Guy
                  • 04-14-09
                  • 621

                  #9
                  everyone thought the sox sweep vs. the A's was a lock also. Carefull and GL
                  Comment
                  • Willie Bee
                    SBR Posting Legend
                    • 02-14-06
                    • 15726

                    #10
                    Originally posted by Enogsiwon
                    The A's will lay off Burnetts slider and do better than you think.. But what does the King know?
                    Yep, baseball's a funny game. Good luck with your A's play.

                    Originally posted by Xpertcapper
                    everyone thought the sox sweep vs. the A's was a lock also. Carefull and GL
                    Don't remember saying anything about a sweep or calling anything a lock. I'm always careful and good luck to you on Oakland.
                    Comment
                    • Enogsiwon
                      Restricted User
                      • 06-15-09
                      • 4075

                      #11
                      Never said I was playing A's.. The King has a rep to uphold.. Please do not assume the Kings plays
                      Comment
                      • Willie Bee
                        SBR Posting Legend
                        • 02-14-06
                        • 15726

                        #12
                        Oh ok, enog. Just thought you were at least suggesting the Yankees were not the play, and since the A's are the only other team in the game I sorta' figured you were playing them. Maybe you're on a total?
                        Comment
                        • flyingillini
                          SBR Aristocracy
                          • 12-06-06
                          • 41219

                          #13
                          Yankees for me
                          המוסד‎
                          המוסד למודיעין ולתפקידים מיוחדים‎
                          Comment
                          • Willie Bee
                            SBR Posting Legend
                            • 02-14-06
                            • 15726

                            #14
                            Brett fcukin' Tomko!
                            Comment
                            • pavyracer
                              SBR Aristocracy
                              • 04-12-07
                              • 82815

                              #15
                              Originally posted by pavyracer
                              Not so sure. Yankees outfield is decimated. If Oakland can hit the huge holes in the outfield they can burn the Yankees tonight.
                              Comment
                              • MexicanStallion
                                SBR Posting Legend
                                • 09-08-08
                                • 20429

                                #16
                                Originally posted by pavyracer
                                Nice call here Pavy.
                                Comment
                                • oiler
                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                  • 06-06-09
                                  • 6585

                                  #17
                                  Originally posted by Willie Bee
                                  Brett fcukin' Tomko!
                                  he looked like cy young last night but with sabathia pitching today.oakland needs to pull a rabbit out of there hat lol
                                  Comment
                                  • Willie Bee
                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                    • 02-14-06
                                    • 15726

                                    #18
                                    Screw it! I'm coming right back with a run line play tonight on Chubby Checker/Crooked Cap Sabathia.
                                    Comment
                                    • lakerboy
                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                      • 04-02-09
                                      • 94379

                                      #19
                                      yankees will lose again tonite
                                      Comment
                                      • tb06
                                        SBR Rookie
                                        • 07-18-09
                                        • 21

                                        #20
                                        Originally posted by lakerboy
                                        yankees will lose again tonite
                                        Nice analysis... On the Yanks RL
                                        Comment
                                        • lakerboy
                                          SBR Aristocracy
                                          • 04-02-09
                                          • 94379

                                          #21
                                          Originally posted by tb06
                                          Nice analysis... On the Yanks RL
                                          I don't need to analyze they have lost 2 in a row its time for a slump have fun with your rl loss
                                          Comment
                                          • Willie Bee
                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                            • 02-14-06
                                            • 15726

                                            #22
                                            I have fun whether I win or lose laker boy. Good luck with your Oakland play
                                            Comment
                                            • fsugolf
                                              SBR Hall of Famer
                                              • 07-17-09
                                              • 6194

                                              #23
                                              gl tonight yanks
                                              Comment
                                              • Willie Bee
                                                SBR Posting Legend
                                                • 02-14-06
                                                • 15726

                                                #24
                                                Well I can't say that I've got a lot of confidence in Chad Gaudin coming through tonight to give me a winner in the series bet, but I'll take it if he does.
                                                Comment
                                                • jjgold
                                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                                  • 07-20-05
                                                  • 388179

                                                  #25
                                                  I take Yanks every night

                                                  Mainly on RL, tonight line a little better if you want to bet straight -130 or so
                                                  Comment
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