After a bad week I've decided to go back to only picking single games for a while. My early lean for tomorrow is the CUBS -115. Any thoughts would be appreciated.
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They seem to be hitting really well...even on those days when you think "well, they have got to slump some day and that day might just be today"
They have gone UNDER 8 (as a total) in only 4 of the last 14 !!! games.
now thats extraordinary...
Unless the jinx gods see my post we should be in for a nice OVER tomorrow as well.
I will add more information as I find it.Comment -
Harden pitches amazing on the road and Florida hasn't been hitting as good as Chicago lately. I normally try and stick to sides because I'm alot more successful at it. Totals are hit and miss for me.Comment -
This might be an odd way of looking at it, but the Marlins stirke out more then any team in the league. Which tells me they are a free swinging team. if you have a pitcher who isnt always middle plate, then Florida will chase alot of bad pitches. Rich Hardin (tomorrows starter) has thrown 93 innings with 38 BB's. So he walks 1 guy every three innings. Not bad. -- What it boils down to is Rich throws strikes, and Florida swings aggresively. Florida has been averaging 5-6 runs a game and the cubs have been killing the ball the past few games. I can't tell you who is going to win, but for myself I forsee this being a high scoring game. I'm taking the over.Comment -
Volstad averages less than 6 ip per game while Florida has used alot of bullpen the last two days against the braves. That should help the over and the cubs play, but I want to stick to one play.Comment -
Rich Harden (7-6, 4.55 ERA),
Harden is 4-1 with a 2.03 ERA in seven road starts, yielding three runs while striking out 22 over 20 innings in his last three.
He has been very sharp since the break, going 2-0 with a 0.95 ERA in three starts after getting tagged for 11 runs in seven innings to lose his first two starts this month. The right-hander was nearly perfect in six innings during Sunday's 5-2 win over Cincinnati, not issuing a walk and allowing one hit - a solo homer - while striking out eight.
Harden was awful in his lone start against the Marlins this year, giving up five runs, six hits and four walks in 3 2-3 innings of an 8-6 home win May 1.
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Chris Volstad (8-9, 4.44 ERA)
Is 2-6 with a 5.57 ERA in his last nine starts at Land Shark Stadium.
At Dodger Stadium on Sunday, Volstad allowed four runs - all in the sixth - and eight hits in 5 1-3 innings of an 8-6 win over Los Angeles, the third time in four starts the right-hander yielded at least four runs.
Volstad has a 2.84 ERA without a decision in three career starts versus the Cubs.
At Wrigley Field on April 30, Volstad allowed two runs and three hits in seven innings of an 8-2, 10-inning win.Comment -
Best play on the card today is Cubs UNDER 8.5, likely a 3-2 game.Comment -
I think the POD should be the Nats.
Starter John Lannan (7-7, 3.25 ERA) has been solid, allowing three or fewer earned runs in nine of his past 10 starts. A decent effort from him should be enough to topple what’s left of the downtrodden Pirates.
Pick: Nationals.Comment -
Since having a rough patch Harden has been very good. I'm a Cubs fan and have watched every start, I think he is throwing his spiltter again after going with his fastball and change early in the year and this has keyed his turnaround. Harden seems to be one of those pitchers who is cruising along and BAM one terrible inning, with a well rested bullpen Uncle Lou will have a quick hook and go Guzman in the 7th, Marmol in the 8th, and Gregg in the 9th tonight. I wouldn't be shocked to see Fuld get the start in LF in place of Soriano tonight either.Comment -
I think the UNDER seems very probable now that the match up is put in context.
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Florida’s last 12 games when playing at home against Chi Cubs
Despite this stat Vegas still decided to offer the OVER/UNDER line at 8. This is saying something.
I think this could be a big bait of a line.
Will go with the under here.
Anyone see it differently?
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