Professor mj's pick of the day

Prof.MJ · 08-10-19, 08:40 AM

Well, my first post got a tough break, as the Nationals blew a 3-point lead in the bottom of the 9th.

For your information, I am always going to pretend like I'm betting $1, more specifically RISKING $1 (no matter if betting a favorite or an underdog).

0-1, -1.00$

Pick of the Day for August 10:

Nationals at +104 (or 2.04) at Mets

Yes, I am back at it with Washington once again.

They qualify under 3 betting systems at a time, so I like this play quite a bit.

One of them is "The Cold Team versus The Hot Team" betting angle:

"Bet a road team coming off 1+ loss when facing a home team coming off 4+ straight wins"

This betting strategy has yielded +$66.51 over 993 bets (ROI = 6.7%) over a 7-year span from placing $1 bets.

Good luck fellows!

Professor MJ
(University Professor, PhD in statistics)

Hman · 08-10-19, 11:35 AM

Welcome aboard and GL with your plays

Prof.MJ · 08-10-19, 01:02 PM

Originally posted by Hman

Welcome aboard and GL with your plays

Thanks Hman, I'm looking forward to discussing with fellow sports investors!

Prof.MJ · 08-11-19, 07:22 AM

One more loss following a comeback by the Mets...

Today's pick of the day: Reds (at -128 or 1.781) vs Cubs

Based on "The Blowout Effect", system #1:

If Team A blows out Team B by 8+ runs and they meet again the next day, bet Team A.

+49.17 over 930 bets (ROI = 5.3%) during a 7-year span.

Prof.MJ · 08-12-19, 07:15 AM

Now 0-3, -3.00. Posting on this forum has brought me some bad luck, lol. But let's keep firing!

Today's pick of the day: White Sox (at +259 or 3.59) vs Astros

Based on "The Snapped Winning Streak":

Fade a road team whose winning streak of length 5+ was just snapped in their previous game.

This system yielded +22.06 over 281 games (ROI = 7.9%) on a 7-year span.

Good luck all!

Professor MJ

Prof.MJ · 08-13-19, 09:48 AM

Today's pick of the day:

Atlanta Braves (at -132) vs Mets

Based on 2 of my 19 betting strategies: 1) "The Snapped Winning Streak" and 2) "The Big Upset" (see my website for details).

Best of luck and go Braves!

Professor MJ

Prof.MJ · 08-14-19, 03:46 PM

All right, we got our first win! Let's keep rolling!

1-3, -2.24

Today's pick of the day: Dodgers at -243 (or 1.4115) at Marlins

Based on "The Blowout Effect", system #1 (out of 3), which says the following:

If Team A beats Team B by 8+ runs and they meet again the next day, bet Team A.

This betting strategy led to +49.17 units over a 7-year span (from 930 bets!).

Good luck!

Professor MJ

Prof.MJ · 08-15-19, 09:55 AM

We are building some momentum with two straight wins!

Bets won = 2
Bets lost = 3
Profit = -1.8285$ (from placing 1$ bets, i.e. risking 1$)

Today's pick of the day is:

Reds (at -149 or 1.671) vs Cards

This system play is based on the "Stingy Pitchers" betting angle.

It goes as follows:

"Suppose a team wins 2 games in a row while allowing a maximum of 1 run per game. FADE them if on the road and their money line is 2.50 or less (so that we are staying away from huge favorites)."

This betting strategy led to a $26.54 profit (from placing $1 bets) over 375 games for a ROI of 7.1% over a 7-year span.

Best of luck fellows!

Professor MJ

Prof.MJ · 08-15-19, 10:01 AM

We must fade St. Louis since they shutout their opponent in their previous 2 contests, they are indeed on the road and their money line is 2.50 or less. Therefore, they meet all criteria for FADING them!

Prof.MJ · 08-16-19, 10:23 AM

After losing our first 3 picks, we have now won our past 3.

Bets won = 3
Bets lost = 3
Profit = -1.1575$ (from placing 1$ bets, i.e. risking 1$)

Today's pick of the day:

Brewers (at +139 or 2.39) at Nationals

This pick meets the criteria of 2 betting strategies at a time:
1) The Blowout Effect (system #2) = Suppose Team A blows out Team B by 7+ runs. If Team A's next game is against a different opponent called Team C, bet Team C. This system yielded +20.39 units over 590 bets on a 7-year span.
2) The Hot Teams Matchup (system #1) = Bet a road team coming off 1+ win when facing a home team coming off 4+ wins in a row. This system was +10.57 units over 163 bets (not the greatest of systems, but still profitable over a reasonable sample size).
Best of luck my friends!
Professor MJ

Prof.MJ · 08-17-19, 09:03 AM

Our 3-game winning streak was halted by a slight 2-1 loss, unfortunately. Let's get back on the winning track right away!

Bets won = 3
Bets lost = 4
Profit = -2.1575$ (from placing 1$ bets, i.e. risking 1$)

Today's pick of the day:

Padres (at +102 or 2.02) at Phillies

This pick is based on "The Cold Team versus Hot Team matchup" betting angle:

"Bet a road team coming off 1+ loss when facing a home team coming off 4+ wins."

This system has yielded a +66.51 unit profit over a 7-year span (through 993 bets). Thus far in 2019: +4.52 units over 82 bets.

Good luck!

Professor MJ

Prof.MJ · 08-18-19, 09:09 AM

So far:

Bets won = 4
Bets lost = 4
Profit = -1.1375$ (from placing 1$ bets, i.e. RISKING 1$ on every play)

Today's pick of the day:
Astros (at -172 or 1.581) at A's

This pick is based on "The Cold Team versus Hot Team matchup" betting angle (like yesterday):

"Bet a road team coming off 1+ loss when facing a home team coming off 4+ wins."

Since Houston has lost its past 5 games, while Oakland is riding a 4-game winning streak, we are backing the Astros.

Good luck!

Professor MJ

Hman · 08-18-19, 09:14 AM

GL today

Prof.MJ · 08-18-19, 02:46 PM

The line has moved to -195 so it's a good sign!

Prof.MJ · 08-19-19, 07:53 AM

After losing our first 3 bets, we have gone 5-1 since then. Let's keep the ball rolling!!

Bets won = 5
Bets lost = 4
Profit = -0.56$ (from placing 1$ bets, i.e. RISKING 1$ on every play)

Today's pick of the day:
Orioles (at -129 or 1.775) vs Royals

This pick is based on "The Cold Teams Matchup" betting angle:

"Bet a home team coming off at least 4 straight losses when facing a road team coming off 1-2-3 losses in a row."

This strategy yielded +24.04 units from 162 games over a 7-year span (ROI = 14.8%).

Thus far in 2019: +5.12 units from 16 bets (ROI = 32.0%).

Since Baltimore has lost its past 7 games, while KC is undergoing a 2-game losing streak, we are backing the Orioles.

Good luck!

Professor MJ

Prof.MJ · 08-20-19, 08:07 AM

5-2 over the past 7 days, where both losses occurred by a 1-run margin.
Bets won = 5
Bets lost = 5
Profit = -1.56$ (from placing 1$ bets, i.e. RISKING 1$ on every play)
Today's pick of the day:
Nationals (at -146 or 1.685) at Pirates
This pick is based on "The Blowout Effect" betting angle:
"Suppose Team A beats Team B by 8+ runs, and they meet again the next day. Bet Team A."
This strategy yielded +49.17 units from 930 games over a 7-year span (ROI = 5.3%).
Thus far in 2019: +11.82 units from 99 bets (ROI = 11.9%).
Since Washigton beat Pittsburgh by 13 runs yesterday, we are taking Washington.
Best of luck!
Professor MJ

Prof.MJ · 08-21-19, 09:22 AM

Pick for August 21

After scoring 13 runs the day before, the Nationals were held to just one last night! So unfortunately, we lost our bet.

RECORD:
Bets won = 5
Bets lost = 6
Profit = -$2.56 (from placing 1$ bets, i.e. RISKING 1$ on every play)

Today's pick of the day:

Indians (at +133 or 2.33) at Mets

This pick is based on "The Hot Bats" betting angle #1 (which has been the most lucrative in 2019 BY FAR!!!)

"Suppose a team wins 2 straight games, while scoring 6+ runs in each meeting. Fade them if they are playing at home."

PERFORMANCE:
Over 7 years: +47.56 units from 1140 bets (ROI = 4.2%)
In 2019: +32.87 units from 129 bets (ROI = 25.5%)

Since the Mets have won their past two games 9-2 and 11-5, we are going to bet against them.

Best of luck!

Professor MJ

Prof.MJ · 08-22-19, 09:35 AM

Pick for August 22

Astonishing facts I read on ESPN.com:

Over the past 15 years, there have been 19 teams whose closing lines were +345 or more. Guess what their record was?

Theoretically, you would expect them to win about 20% of those games, so perhaps a 4-15 record.

These huge underdogs went on to go 10-9!! They have been huge moneymakers, including the Tigers at +435 last night.

By the way, Detroit's money line tonight is at +428 with Pinnacle. I'm not suggesting you should bet them, but if you were considering betting your house on the Astros, perhaps you should hold off...

RECORD:
Bets won = 5
Bets lost = 7
Profit = -$3.56 (from placing 1$ bets, i.e. RISKING 1$ on every play)

Today's pick of the day:

Indians (at +125 or 2.25) at Mets (yes, I'm picking them for the second consecutive day!)

This pick is based on "The Cold Team versus Hot Team Matchup" betting angle:

"Bet a road team coming off a loss when facing a home team coming off 4+ straight wins."

PERFORMANCE:

Over 7 years: +66.51 units from 993 bets (ROI = 6.7%)
In 2019: +6.20 units from 99 bets (ROI = 6.3%)

Since the Indians have lost their past two games while the Mets are riding a 4-game winning streak, we are betting Cleveland!

Cheers!

Professor MJ

Prof.MJ · 08-23-19, 08:42 AM

Pick for August 23

I'm officially on tilt.

From using my 19 betting strategies, we have experienced winnings in April, May, June and July.

Now that I decided to run this series of "Free Pick of the Day" in August, that's when the losing got started.We are down roughly 10 units in August. Since the start of 2019, we are still up by 30 units, but this losing skid is pissing me off.

RECORD:
Bets won = 5
Bets lost = 8
Profit = -$4.56 (from placing 1$ bets, i.e. RISKING 1$ on every play)

Today's pick of the day:

Indians (at -180 or 1.556) vs Royals

This pick is based on "The Scoring Drought" betting angle:

"Suppose a team loses 2 straight games, while scoring 0-1-2 run(s) in each meeting. Fade them if they are playing on the road and their money line is greater than 2.50 (so you bet a home favorite)."

PERFORMANCE:

Over 7 years: +26.99 units from 332 bets (ROI = 8.1%)
In 2019: +2.88 units from 30 bets (ROI = 9.6%)

Since the Royals have lost their past two games by scoring just one run in each meeting (8-1 and 4-1) and they are indeed on the road with a money line above 2.50, we are betting the Indians.

Have a good weekend!

Professor MJ

Prof.MJ · 08-24-19, 11:21 AM

Pick for august 24

RECORD:
Bets won = 6
Bets lost = 8
Profit = -$4.00 (from placing 1$ bets, i.e. RISKING 1$ on every play)

Today's pick of the day:
Yankees (at +129 or 2.29) at Dodgers

This pick is based on "The Blowout Effect" betting angle #1:

"Suppose Team A beats Team B by 8+ runs, and they meet again the next day. Bet Team A."

PERFORMANCE:
Over 7 years: +49.17 units from 930 bets (ROI = 5.3%)
In 2019: +10.56 units from 103 bets (ROI = 10.3%)

Since the Yankees beat those same Dodgers 10-2 last night, we are betting New York.

Have a good weekend!

Professor MJ

Prof.MJ · 08-25-19, 08:44 AM

Daily pick (August 25)

Yankees came close last night... But still lost!

RECORD:
Bets won = 6
Bets lost = 9
Profit = -$5.00 (from placing 1$ bets, i.e. RISKING 1$ on every play)

Today's pick of the day:
Pirates (at +122 or 2.22) vs Reds

This pick is based on "The Blowout Effect" betting angle #1:
"Suppose Team A beats Team B by 8+ runs, and they meet again the next day. Bet Team A."

PERFORMANCE:
Over 7 years: +49.17 units from 930 bets (ROI = 5.3%)
In 2019: +11.82 units from 99 bets (ROI = 11.9%)

Since Pittsburgh beat Cincy 14-0 last night, we are betting the Pirates today.

Best of luck!

Professor MJ

Hman · 08-25-19, 09:17 AM

Best of luck

Prof.MJ · 08-26-19, 07:55 AM

Pick for August 26

Good job Pirates for pulling off the upset win yesterday!

RECORD:
Bets won = 7
Bets lost = 9
Profit = -$3.78 (from placing 1$ bets, i.e. RISKING 1$ on every play)

Today's pick of the day:
Reds (at -156 or 1.641) at Marlins

This pick is based on "The Pummeled Pitchers" betting angle:
"Bet the road team if it has lost... a) its past 2 games by allowing 9+ runs in each meeting; b) its past 3 games by allowing 7+ runs in each meeting (unless their money line is greater than 3.0); c) its past 4 games by allowing 6+ runs in each meeting."

PERFORMANCE:
Over 7 years: +37.58 units from 253 bets (ROI = 14.9%)
In 2019: -5.83 units from 40 bets

Since the Reds have allowed 9+ runs in each of their past two meetings (9-8 and 14-0 losses), we are betting them tonight.

Best of luck!

Professor MJ

Prof.MJ · 08-27-19, 08:59 AM

Pick for August 27

Great! We have now won our past 2 bets, and today we are going to swing for the fences with a big underdog!

RECORD:

Bets won = 8
Bets lost = 9
Profit = -$3.14 (from placing 1$ bets, i.e. RISKING 1$ on every play)

Today's pick of the day:
Orioles (at +288 or 3.88) at Nationals

We have 3 betting systems indicating to bet Baltimore (one of them being the most lucrative in 2019 BY FAR)!Let's review quickly two of them.

======================================== ==

"The Hot Teams Matchup" betting angle #1:
"Bet a road team coming off a win when facing a home team coming off 4+ straight wins."

PERFORMANCE:

Over 7 years: +10.57 units from 163 bets (ROI = 6.5%)
In 2019: +0.67 units from 17 bets

======================================== ==

"The Hot Bats" betting angle #1:
"Suppose a team wins 2 straight games, while scoring 6+ runs in each meeting. Fade them if they are playing at home."

PERFORMANCE:

Over 7 years: +47.56 units from 1140 bets (ROI = 4.2%)
In 2019: +32.72 units from 132 bets

======================================== ==

Since Baltimore is riding a 2-game winning streak while the Nationals are on a 5-game winning streak, we are betting the Orioles.

Also, the Nationals have indeed won their past two games by scoring 6+ runs in each (7-5 and 7-2) so we must fade them.

Have a great day savvy sports investors!

Professor MJ

Hman · 08-27-19, 11:48 AM

GL tonight

Blueface · 08-27-19, 01:50 PM

good luck brother. tailing

Prof.MJ · 08-27-19, 03:23 PM

Originally posted by Blueface

good luck brother. tailing

It's a long shot so we will indeed need some luck ;-) Go O's!

Blueface · 08-28-19, 07:59 AM

��never in doubt with the Shutout!

Prof.MJ · 08-28-19, 08:53 AM

Originally posted by Blueface

��never in doubt with the Shutout!

That was freaking NICE!!!!!!!!!!!!! A poster in a different forum told me before the game that he believed the Orioles had zero chance because their pitcher was "trash". Ooops!!

Prof.MJ · 08-28-19, 08:55 AM

Pick for August 28

KABOOM!!!!!!!!

The Orioles pulled off a huge upset win in Washington last night. A big juicy return!

RECORD:

Bets won = 9
Bets lost = 9
Profit = -$0.26 (from placing 1$ bets, i.e. RISKING 1$ on every play)

Today's pick of the day:
Indians (at -172 or 1.581) at Tigers

This pick is based on "The Blowout Effect" betting angle #1:
"Suppose Team A beats Team B by 8+ runs, and they meet again the next day. Bet Team A."

PERFORMANCE:

Over 7 years: +49.17 units from 930 bets (ROI = 5.3%)
In 2019: +11.82 units from 99 bets (ROI = 11.9%)

Since Cleveland beat those same Tigers 10-1 last night, we are betting the Indians today.

WARNING: you might believe that you should bet the Astros tonight, since they CRUSHED the Rays 15-1 yesterday. However, I've got a record-high 4 betting systems recommending to bet Tampa Bay. Since we have conflicting information I am going to stay away from that game. But if I was forced to bet it, I'd go with the Rays as fairly big underdogs.

Best of luck!

Professor MJ

MikeyPicks1 · 08-28-19, 10:59 AM

First time visitor, I like how you're conducting yourself. Great hit yesterday. Will be back.

Blueface · 08-28-19, 12:01 PM

Let's do it again. I think Im gonna ride with the Rays as well.

Blueface · 08-28-19, 12:03 PM

Where are you getting Cleveland -172?

Prof.MJ · 08-28-19, 03:45 PM

Originally posted by Blueface

Where are you getting Cleveland -172?

I always reference to Pinnacle since they generally have the best odds. WOW I see that the odds have changed quite a bit! Now -198, I got a great bargain this morning.

It went as high as -163 at 8:59am Eatern Time. You can check the line history on Covers.com:

http://www.covers.com/sports/MLB/Odds/linehistory?eventId=581757