The Brewers looked to the sky for Red Birds to offer the Padres 7/24/09 to 7/26/09

[cocknocker]

Wow that was kind of hard to fit all of that in the title. I like a few matchups over the next couple o days and I am gonna do the best that I can to try to exploit them.

It doesn't make any sense so I'm not gonna try to explain taking the Padres in a series. All that I know is that they play well in D.C. and are 9-1 over thir last 10 games there. The Nats will be favored to win this series especially after winning their series against the Mets. This was an auto fade for me personally anyway. The fact that I get crumbs for doing it is even more delightful. None of the numbers make sense except the record.

Padres+110
Padres+140 for series
Padres-1.5 +165 RRL


The Red Birds are 5-5 over thier last 10 in games at Philly. That's all that I need Piniero and Wellemeyer can get two quick wins before anyone knows what happened. I'm gonna roll with one of my favorite teams to wager on, especially in a dog role.

Red Birds+126
Red Birds+150 for series
Red Birds-1.5+180 RRL

The Brewers are being installed as a home dog. I know that the Bravos are hot and all, but Vazquez is 1-3 in his last 4 at Milwaukee. There is no way that he should be favored in the Big Hot Dog. And so for that I think that Gallardo will pick up a win against Hanson and there will be crumbs delight on this series.

Brewers+110
Brewers-120 for series
Brewers -1.5+220 RRL

The Indians can steal the series from the Mariners if they win tonight, because they have Cliff Lee going for them on Sunday, and there's a definite possibility that they can win that game. There's some wacky things going on with this gme with regards to movement, so I'm gonna play the hunch and see if this is the game they'll steal. Cleveland is 6-4 in their last 10 games in the Great Northwest. I am going to add them to my playbook for this weekend. Their bulllpen is shit, and the only way that they will win is if they blow out the Mariners, or Cliff Lee goes the distance. I say both things happen.


Wahoos+105
Wahoos+115 Series
Wahoos-1.5 +170 RRL




Totals I'll be playing:

Friday 7/24/09

Texas/KC over 7.5
Padres/Nats over 9

[Dexter]

Letdown Alert

(5x) tigers -1.5/+120 (game 1)

the whitesox are in a bad spot vs verlander tomorrow at 1pm in detroit off the emotional win today.

(3x) under phillies 9 (A5)

[ATB515]

Stay away from the pads. There is absolutely no heart on that team. It's a mystery who will start for the padres daily. I might even get the nod on saturday.

[Nickelicious]

Wow CK, your the bomb but the only one I see is the Brewers. GL and hope you sweep!

[cocknocker]

Latos top propect who lost debut after giving up 2 runs to Colorado. But he has good stuff. Gaudin 3 straight quality starts but 0-2 for no run protection. Stauffer 2.08 era. Enough said. They have a shot.

[ATB515]

Keep in mind that Latos will only pitch 5 innings maximum. No matter how well he is pitching. Yeah, Stauffer has been pitching well. I would stay away from him because of that. He's bound to get rocked. It's the Padre way. Im just curious though, how often do you watch this team? If you do watch them, have you noticed the lack of dedication on this team? The players could care less if they win or lose. They just go through the motions. Anyways, good luck with your bet. I'll be pulling for you since I am a San Diegan and a Padres fan after all.

Latos top propect who lost debut after giving up 2 runs to Colorado. But he has good stuff. Gaudin 3 straight quality starts but 0-2 for no run protection. Stauffer 2.08 era. Enough said. They have a shot.

[JayRow]

Cocknocker- Thoughts about Verlander vs Contreras picking Detroit at -1.5 (+120) as a Brown Bag Play?

[cocknocker]

JayRow, I like the over in that game, but as far as a side is concerned, I like the Tigers. You would have to play them on the runline if you don't like the high cheese. Tigers first game, Pale Hose the 2nd..

[JayRow]

Thank you for your input. Do you have any daily leans for tomorrow or willl those be in another thread?

[cocknocker]

Yes JayRow, the only other games that I will play outside of these games are


Rangers/Royals over 7.5
Padres/Nats over 9

Greinke and Feldman will get lit up as these teams need wins BAD. I estimate 10-11 runs for that one, and as far as the Padres and nats, I see that one having closer to 13 runs. I was gonna play these HEAVY but when I found the mismatch that Cleveland has with Seattle, I had to switch my focus.

[cocknocker]

Tweetable Version

Padres+105
Red Birds+122
Brewers+115
Wahoos+113
Rangers/Royals over 7.5
Nats/Padres over 9

[ragiche]

Booked plays.

Redbirds +128 (3x) Tailing CK.

Brewcrew +117 (3x) Tailing CK.

Padres +110 (3x) Tailing CK.

Sdg/Wasover 9 (3x) Tailing CK.

Tigers GM1 RL (3x) My pick.

Metros ML (3x) My pick.

Athletics +186 (3x) My pick.

Bluebirds ML (3x) My pick.

Twinkies +144 (1x) My pick.

Marlins +142 (2x) My pick.

GL to all .

[cocknocker]

For those who are following along and can't figure out what's going on. I'll use a model of that of a $100.00 bettor. This is how you would lay your money if we were using the Padres as an example today. I would play all of the first plays and then play Cleveland last at the end of the day after the returns have come back. The public will continue to pound the Mariners, but the truth is that the Wahoos are ready to tear a patch out of their asses.

Padres+105 ML $100.00 to win $105.00
Padres+165 RRL $50.00 to win $82.50
Padres+140 SERIES $100.00 to win $140.00

In the event that San Diego doesn't win by 2, then the RRL play rolls over until it hits
In the event that San Diego wins the first two games then I leave the series alone
In the event that San Diego looses the first two games then I will play the RRL only the last game for enough to cover the losses of the first two games. It's usually not a high bet amount because of the huge positive juice involved.

Time to blast off and end the week up by a ton. Kill those books today gents!

[Axis]

JayRow, I like the over in that game, but as far as a side is concerned, I like the Tigers. You would have to play them on the runline if you don't like the high cheese. Tigers first game, Pale Hose the 2nd..

The over!?

I'm not betting the over or under, but good luck with that.

The Tigers can't score for SHIT, and they have their Ace going...my 2 cents

[TheLemonDropKid]

Hey CK........I know that a great capper can't go by line movement alone.....but are there some solid standards to go by?

For example:

RLM for today from most significant to least:
24% On COL line went from -114 to -125 (11 diff)
44% On ARI line went from +101 to -112 (13 diff)
24% on CLE line went from +122 to +114 (8 diff)
43% on SD line went from +114 to +107 (7 diff)
34% on OAK line went from +185 to +180 (5 diff)
23% on STL line went from +126 to +122 (4 diff)
33% on MIL line went from +120 to +116 (4 diff)

POSITIVE movement:
70% on DET line went from -170 to -183 (13 diff)
85% on BOS line went from -150 to -161 (11 diff)
83% on CHIC line went from -145 to -154 (9 diff)
77% on TOR line went from -136 to -144 (8 diff)

Would it be a good idea to deduct the following?

If a team has 30% or less of public money on them and RLM of 5 or greater.....that is a solid play...ie...COL and CLE.......is that a good "cutoff" point or standard?

And if a team has 70% or more of public money on them and Positive line movement of 10 or greater......that is a solid play....ie DET and BOS......is that a good "cutoff" point or standard?

Or am I just completely spinning my wheels here?

[LoneStar]

Jay Row if your looking at the over/under for the CWS@DET you might want to consider some of the trends for this game and I only say this because I’m considering the play myself although I'm not sure if CK would oppose but this is what I’ve come up with…..

CWS- Under is 7-1 in Contreras' last 8 starts overall.

DET- Under is 7-3 in DET last 10 games as a favorite.
Under is 37-17 in DET last 54 on grass.

Heads To Head -DET are 2-7 in Verlanders last 9 starts vs. CHW
6 of 8 have gone under in this meeting alone this year.

Bats aren’t really hot for either teams right now let alone you have two good pitchers on the mound where Contreras’ coming off a rough outing; however he was 4-2 with a 2.06 ERA in his previous six outings not to mention Contreras has split two starts against Detroit this season and limited the Tigers to one hit in eight scoreless innings of a 2-1 victory on June 8. meanwhile Verlander giving up two runs in seven innings of a 2-1 loss to the sluggers (New York Yankees) last Sunday. He is 3-9 with a 5.44 ERA against the White Sox, but struck out nine while throwing a six-hitter in a 2-1 victory June 10 in his most recent outing against them. Getting back to the bats here looking at the last five games here for each team; starting with the CWS there avg. . .217 and DET last five .186 with that in mine the CWS hosted the TAM and BAL while DET hosted SEA and NYY in those series; don’t think I need to say anything further for the bats on both the ball clubs let alone this duel pitching match up. Good Luck with the play hope I didn’t discourage you by all means…. Just a little insight. I’m personally leaning on the UNDER (8.5) here where I think that’s the play.

[t-bone]

Something excites me about the O's first 5 @ +148 or the under 5.5

My hunch of the day

[peterpan19]

ragiche
... man I dont know... you are just playing so many games per day ??... thats just insane... I mean if I find myself playing 4 games I think... puh thats a lot, but 10 games for 27units... puhh... whats your bankroll 300 or 400 if I may ask ?

...anyway...a bit late... but DET RL... even if not looking good right now... plus I am on the Cubs and Boston for the series...

GL guys... might have a play later too

[cocknocker]

No you're not spinning your wheels LDK. RLM is one thing. Knowing WHY the line is moving is the best thing to know

[JayRow]

RLM is one thing. Knowing WHY the line is moving is the best thing to know

and the million dollar question is how exactly do you figure out the WHY?

[cocknocker]

Information JayRow...information...

[Dexter]

(3x) redsox -1.5/+110

[Dexter]

Letdown Alert

(5x) tigers -1.5/+120 (game 1)

the whitesox are in a bad spot vs verlander tomorrow at 1pm in detroit off the emotional win today.

(3x) under phillies 9 (A5)

bang

nice stuff Lonestar...welcome

[kmarinouofm]

bang

nice stuff Lonestar...welcome

good call Dexter.. just smart betting in my humble opinion .. RLM, stats, this forum and everything else is nice to know and have.. but sometimes you just need to use your noodle and find a spot like you did today... After that game yesterday all i could keep telling myself each time ESPN played it was fade tomorrow, they are going to get into Detroit late.. no one is going to be able to sleep after that win..its over, fade fade fade... Then when i actually did the HW and saw it was verlander ... it was too good to be true.... Didn't have the balls to play the Run line like you did..

Again nice hit..

[LoneStar]

Thanks there Kmarinouofm! Nice hit for me where I parlayed Cubs Det and the under 8.5 in CWS & DET.

[ragiche]

ragiche
... man I dont know... you are just playing so many games per day ??... thats just insane... I mean if I find myself playing 4 games I think... puh thats a lot, but 10 games for 27units... puhh... whats your bankroll 300 or 400 if I may ask ?

...anyway...a bit late... but DET RL... even if not looking good right now... plus I am on the Cubs and Boston for the series...

GL guys... might have a play later too

Thanks for your concern,peter.My BR is at $3000.Yes I do play alot of games but I don't use all of the money.If i win in a week i just use that money to play on the next week. I actually plays around half of it per day (max).If that money loses in a certain day i play half of the money left in the next day so on and so on..... .If it wins you know what.

GL luck to your plays.Let's cash it today.GL also to all cappers.

[showtime2000]

Dex, nice one today!

Going with,

Milwauhkee
St.Louis
Cleveland




GLA

[Dexter]

(2x) over redsox 9.5 (pure movement play)

[showtime2000]

Dex, count me in the NFL tournament. I want a piece of your a**......... just kidding.

Can't wait till NFL!

[Dexter]

thanks guys - its been a bad baseball season, but hopefully i can continue my mini-hot streak and unload a nice 10x tomorrow or sunday.

just as shoebox does, im a week to week gambler. i have an unlimited roll to play with, but i have a weekly budget in place that keeps me in check. my whole style is to bet bigger when im up (less when down) and try to unload with "house" money.

[showtime2000]

Crazy parlay time

NYY ml
Col ml
Tor ml
Laa ml
KC ml


$100 pays $1100.

[ragiche]

thanks guys - its been a bad baseball season, but hopefully i can continue my mini-hot streak and unload a nice 10x tomorrow or sunday.

just as shoebox does, im a week to week gambler. i have an unlimited roll to play with, but i have a weekly budget in place that keeps me in check. my whole style is to bet bigger when im up (less when down) and try to unload with "house" money.

GL to you and I wish you to hit all of your today(everyday).

[cocknocker]

Good call LoneStar! Backed up with good analysis! I'm gonna have to peek in on what you're doin'!

[Dexter]

pass around the red-cups.....its time to drink and gamble.

[Dexter]

jeez - redsox with 1st and 2nd no out....K Youkilis, K Ortiz.....then drew flies out with the bases loaded.

this team is sitting on a 7 run inning...