MLB - Friday, 6/14/19

[LT Profits]

4 MLB Plays Friday

Marlins -113 (5 Dimes)
Tigers +133 (Heritage)
Indians / Tigers UNDER 9.5 -110 (Heritage)
Phillies / Braves UNDER 9.5 -105 (Heritage)


YTD: 146-154-9, -6.88

[Hot Jerry]

Good luck to u LT . It is only Milwaukee for me today !

[jolyolyolyman]

LT, what’s the system rationale behind the Tiger’s play? Just curious

[LT Profits]

LT, what’s the system rationale behind the Tiger’s play? Just curious

Granted it is a borderline play as I get Indians 54% (-117), but it comes down to both starters rated about equally average (Plutko just 1% better) and both offenses close to equally weak (Cleveland 3% better but still below average). Latter also explains the Under play, I get 8.4

[jolyolyolyman]

Granted it is a borderline play as I get Indians 54% (-117), but it comes down to both starters rated about equally average (Plutko just 1% better) and both offenses close to equally weak (Cleveland 3% better but still below average). Latter also explains the Under play, I get 8.4

Thanks man!

[jjgold]

[LT Profits]

1 MLB Addition

5 MLB Plays Friday

Marlins -113 (5 Dimes)
Tigers +133 (Heritage)
Indians / Tigers UNDER 9.5 -110 (Heritage)
Phillies / Braves UNDER 9.5 -105 (Heritage)
Blue Jays / Astros UNDER 8 +100 (Heritage)

[eddycash]

LT no White Sox today?

[LT Profits]

Hellz no, Giolito should come crashing down soon. I have Yankees 52% (-108), so I am in step with actual line.

[LT Profits]

Giolito has improved to the point where he now has a respectable 3.58 xFIP, but that is still almost 1.5 runs higher than his ERA.

[STANDARD BET]

Like the Marlins today too. Taking the run line. Hope it pans out.

[eddycash]

Thanks LT

[LT Profits]

Like the Marlins today too. Taking the run line. Hope it pans out.

I cringed enough hitting "Confirm" betting Marlins as a favorite, I don't think I can stomach laying -1.5

[STANDARD BET]

LOL yeah for sure -- hoping it's one of those every-so-often games they completely shut someone out and score 10 runs.

[qtip0711]

That MIL/SF game has trap written all over it. POM had a good turn around showing against LAD last time on the bump. I would feel more comfortable siding with MIL if they were priced at -150 instead of in the 120's for this game. I know it's superstitious but still...

[NBAtony]

That MIL/SF game has trap written all over it. POM had a good turn around showing against LAD last time on the bump. I would feel more comfortable siding with MIL if they were priced at -150 instead of in the 120's for this game. I know it's superstitious but still...

yep definite auto bet for me on giants for the same reason. BOL

on face value i see,
39 win team vs 28 win team
NL MVP vs giants first year without an all star? (please inform me if they have one, have not watched them this year)
7-0 vs 1-6
2.41 era vs 7.16

and the brewers just beat the astros.

[sosawestbrook]

Marlins???

LT I thought you hated Richards?

[fecgp40]

Marlins???

LT I thought you hated Richards?

No. LT hates Giolito. LOL. It will be interesting to see how he does as the season progresses. I realize his xFIP indicated he is due for regression, but it's still in the 3's. Not bad at all.

[pavyracer]

LT doesn't hate pitchers. His model is based on stats. It's kind of out of whack right now with sides by the totals are profitable.

[LT Profits]

Marlins???

LT I thought you hated Richards?

True, but I actually have Brault about 3% worse.

[LT Profits]

No. LT hates Giolito. LOL. It will be interesting to see how he does as the season progresses. I realize his xFIP indicated he is due for regression, but it's still in the 3's. Not bad at all.

No he is right, I commented on how lowly I have Richards rated a few weeks ago.

And you are echoing what i said about Giolito in Post #10.

And one more thing, when I say I "hate" a guy, I do not mean it as a literal opinion but rather mean that I have him rated either poorly or much lower then public perception.

[fecgp40]

No he is right, I commented on how lowly I have Richards rated a few weeks ago.

And you are echoing what i said about Giolito in Post #10.

And one more thing, when I say I "hate" a guy, I do not mean it as a literal opinion but rather mean that I have him rated either poorly or much lower then public perception.

I know you don't actually hate a given pitcher. I was speaking light-heartedly. That being said however, Giolito pitching well again tonight.

[LT Profits]

0-5. I guess I love a challenge.

Now -12.16 YTD, I am looking for an NCAA Hoops-esque comeback.

[pavyracer]

LT have you ever tweaked the model midseason? Something is off this year. You got to adjust.

[LT Profits]

LT have you ever tweaked the model midseason? Something is off this year. You got to adjust.

Still too early, I will re-evaluate the Thursday after All-Star break if I am still struggling then. Won't be around Monday thru Wednesday that week.

[StackinGreen]

Hellz no, Giolito should come crashing down soon. I have Yankees 52% (-108), so I am in step with actual line.