MLB - Friday, 5/31/19

[LT Profits]

2 MLB Plays Friday

Pirates +105 (Heritage)
Marlins / Padres OVER 7 -110 (Heritage)


YTD: 115-119-7, -2.66

[Hot Jerry]

Good luck - LT .

ATLANTA is my play today !!

[jjgold]

Marlins total so low

No option but over

[LT Profits]

Marlins total so low

No option but over

Marlins and Over always a dangerous combination, but I have this at 8.1

[funnyb25]

Marlins and Over always a dangerous combination, but I have this at 8.1

I think the Marlins may hit as well. Nice dog.

[LT Profits]

1 MLB Addition

3 MLB Plays Friday

Pirates +105 (Heritage)
Red Sox -136 (Heritage)
Marlins / Padres OVER 7 -110 (Heritage)

[KVB]

Good Job climbing back a few units here LT, the Contrarian Fund has done the same and after 246 plays it's +.53 units.

Good Luck LT, keep up the grind.

[44 Mag]

Marlins and Over always a dangerous combination, but I have this at 8.1

They have squashed me three times this season. Each time scoring one run.

[Dogball]

LT please advise numbers for
Mets
Oakland
And any commentary on Boston today. I know your a numbers guy I’m wondering if you have any sentiment to add

Thanks and GL

[LT Profits]

They have squashed me three times this season. Each time scoring one run.

Yes, known risk coming in, holding nose tightly.

[LT Profits]

LT please advise numbers for
Mets
Oakland
And any commentary on Boston today. I know your a numbers guy I’m wondering if you have any sentiment to add

Thanks and GL

Mets 58% (-138)
Houston 55% (-122)

Both lines pretty spot on.

As for Red Sox, before the season I had Sale as my top rated pitcher in baseball, and thankx to his velocity coming back after a slow start, I still have him in the Top 3. I end up with Boston 61% (-156).

[jjgold]

Mets will go on a run, pitchers arms getting better

MLB now basically the lead sport now

[Shev2]

Marlins and Over always a dangerous combination, but I have this at 8.1

I put this at 6.2. It's a low total but I bet the under anyway. I'd be at 7.5 without adjusting for ballpark and quality of starting pitchers. Interested in how you're at 8.1 without trying to get too far into specifics. Both teams are trash at hitting lefties and the ballpark is pitcher friendly. Just a simple runs per gp calc puts it at 7.1. Not trying to be rude here but genuinely confused at how you get to 8.1 and would like to know more if you care to explain.

RK	TEAM	GP	AB	R	Runs Per GP
26	San Diego	56	1836	221	3.9
30	Miami	54	1799	169	3.1
					7.1

[LT Profits]

I put this at 6.2. It's a low total but I bet the under anyway. I'd be at 7.5 without adjusting for ballpark and quality of starting pitchers. Interested in how you're at 8.1 without trying to get too far into specifics. Both teams are trash at hitting lefties and the ballpark is pitcher friendly. Just a simple runs per gp calc puts it at 7.1. Not trying to be rude here but genuinely confused at how you get to 8.1 and would like to know more if you care to explain.

RK	TEAM	GP	AB	R	Runs Per GP
26	San Diego	56	1836	221	3.9
30	Miami	54	1799	169	3.1
					7.1

I disagree on San Diego offense being trash vs. lefties, they have 4 guys in my default lineup that are well above average against them with surprisingly Franmil Reyes having one of my highest ratings vs. L in all of baseball. Also, as much as I like Caleb Smith, I think he may have gone from severely underrated to start the year to perhaps a smidge overrated right now, I actually have Lucchesi rated a hair better, around 15% above average vs. around 12% for Smith. And in case you have not discerned it, I actually have San Diego at a comfortable 64% (-178) here.

[LT Profits]

I disagree on San Diego offense being trash vs. lefties, they have 4 guys in my default lineup that are well above average against them with surprisingly Franmil Reyes having one of my highest ratings vs. L in all of baseball. Also, as much as I like Caleb Smith, I think he may have gone from severely underrated to start the year to perhaps a smidge overrated right now, I actually have Lucchesi rated a hair better, around 15% above average vs. around 12% for Smith. And in case you have not discerned it, I actually have San Diego at a comfortable 64% (-178) here.

Oh forgot to mention, are you using long-term park factor? Because San Diego is not nearly as severe pitcher friendly now as it used to be.

[Shev2]

Oh forgot to mention, are you using long-term park factor? Because San Diego is not nearly as severe pitcher friendly now as it used to be.

The park factors I'm using are somewhat of a weighted average over the last 3 seasons and then some data from this season. I model Petco as slightly pitcher friendly, but not really that much.

Just simply put, both teams average a total of 7.1 runs per game on the season. We both can agree that the starting pitchers are better than average and the ballpark is pitcher friendly. You disagree with San Diego being trash against lefties (lefty splits as team their OPS is below league average but I don't want to discuss that in detail right now. Not what I'm trying to get at). From a modeling perspective, I just don't know what you can be doing to get to 8.1

Not trying to argue who is right and wrong but rather trying to see the differences in our models and where the value is in those differences. TIA for the response.

[Shev2]

The park factors I'm using are somewhat of a weighted average over the last 3 seasons and then some data from this season. I model Petco as slightly pitcher friendly, but not really that much.

Just simply put, both teams average a total of 7.1 runs per game on the season. We both can agree that the starting pitchers are better than average and the ballpark is pitcher friendly. You disagree with San Diego being trash against lefties (lefty splits as team their OPS is below league average but I don't want to discuss that in detail right now. Not what I'm trying to get at). From a modeling perspective, I just don't know what you can be doing to get to 8.1

Not trying to argue who is right and wrong but rather trying to see the differences in our models and where the value is in those differences. TIA for the response.

Although if I'm getting to 7.5 without adjusting for starting pitchers or park then I can possibly see how we're not actually that far off from each other.

[eddycash]

Value in Oakland A's tonight LT? Line moved to +115

[LT Profits]

Value in Oakland A's tonight LT? Line moved to +115

No, see Post #11. Houston -122

[LT Profits]

Another MLB Addition

4 MLB Plays Friday

Pirates +105 (Heritage)
Red Sox -136 (Heritage)
Twins / Rays UNDER 8 +100 (Heritage)
Marlins / Padres OVER 7 -110 (Heritage)

[4sees]

Ticket#:4172909 May 31 07:05 PM May 31 07:10 PM

May 31 04:48 PM

MLB MLB

PARLAY (2 TEAMS) [901] MIL -126 ( J CHACíN -R / C ARCHER -R ) [916] TB -133 ( J BERRíOS -R / R STANEK -R )

301.73 / 646.38

[spippen]

Marlins looking like a good fade team again. GL today

[LT Profits]

Marlins looking like a good fade team again. GL today

They were nice enough to score that run in the ninth though.

EDIT: Also as mentioned above, model loved Padres, I just did not want to lay the odds because I never go above -150.

[spippen]

IDK....These bottom feeder teams to go against are -150+ quite a bit and that has been a money maker or - 1 or 1 1/2 as long as it's not done automatically. I notice you do not give up runs for plus money? I wonder if that could be a system you could keep an eye on as practice.

[LT Profits]

IDK....These bottom feeder teams to go against are -150+ quite a bit and that has been a money maker or - 1 or 1 1/2 as long as it's not done automatically. I notice you do not give up runs for plus money? I wonder if that could be a system you could keep an eye on as practice.

I do rarely but not normally.

[LT Profits]

OK, loading Saturday.

[4sees]

Silly me going against LT (just after he went 6-1) on that Pirate pounding. Nice job, and is that like a kissing your sister 1-1-2 record on Friday then? So support super sweet Saturday.