MLB - Thursday, 5/23/19

sosawestbrook · 05-23-19, 06:40 AM

LT what do you think about Miami pitcher Richards? Where is he ranked in your model

jjgold · 05-23-19, 06:43 AM

The kid cannot get going

LT Profits · 05-23-19, 06:46 AM

Originally posted by sosawestbrook

LT what do you think about Miami pitcher Richards? Where is he ranked in your model

Not good, about 12% below average. Model actually loves the Detroit side here at 63% (-170), I just don't want to lay the -150ish with a shit team. I often take dregs at nice prices but not as decided favorites.

Hman · 05-23-19, 06:47 AM

GL today LT

sosawestbrook · 05-23-19, 06:52 AM

Originally posted by LT Profits

Not good, about 12% below average. Model actually loves the Detroit side here at 63% (-170), I just don't want to lay the -150ish with a shit team. I often take dregs at nice prices but not as decided favorites.

Aw man. I’m higher on him then that lol

He’s got a filthy changeup though. Like one of those that keeps you in the league 15 years & you wonder how the hell this guy is still pitching at 40yo

I’m on Fish today. Cheers best of luck hope we both win

LT Profits · 05-23-19, 07:09 AM

Originally posted by sosawestbrook

Aw man. I’m higher on him then that lol

He’s got a filthy changeup though. Like one of those that keeps you in the league 15 years & you wonder how the hell this guy is still pitching at 40yo

I’m on Fish today. Cheers best of luck hope we both win

He walks too many guys though and he had actually been lucky so far yielding just a .244 BABIP with a relatively high 80.1% strand rate, making his ghastly 5.58 xFIP not all that surprising. The saving grace and the reason I don't have him worse is because he has only pitched like 48 innings this year, and his xFIP was in the 4.20s last season. Still not great but closer to his true level.

sosawestbrook · 05-23-19, 07:26 AM

Originally posted by LT Profits

He walks too many guys though and he had actually been lucky so far yielding just a .244 BABIP with a relatively high 80.1% strand rate, making his ghastly 5.58 xFIP not all that surprising. The saving grace and the reason I don't have him worse is because he has only pitched like 48 innings this year, and his xFIP was in the 4.20s last season. Still not great but closer to his true level.

I’m not as well versed on those type of analytics but at the end of the day he’s only had about 30 big league starts?

How does your model account for pitchers having breakthrough seasons late in their careers like Perez from Twins or Lyles on Pitt?

LT Profits · 05-23-19, 07:38 AM

Originally posted by sosawestbrook

I’m not as well versed on those type of analytics but at the end of the day he’s only had about 30 big league starts?

How does your model account for pitchers having breakthrough seasons late in their careers like Perez from Twins or Lyles on Pitt?

There is no one answer. If it happens for no reason, it could simply be variance with regression to the mean inevitable. If there is a valid reason for improvement, i.e., adding another quality pitch or a spike in velocity, then adjustment is made.

LT Profits · 05-23-19, 07:41 AM

Originally posted by sosawestbrook

I’m not as well versed on those type of analytics but at the end of the day he’s only had about 30 big league starts?

How does your model account for pitchers having breakthrough seasons late in their careers like Perez from Twins or Lyles on Pitt?

If you have no interest in sabermetrics and want a quick and easy mainstream stat to key on, just look at K/BB ratio. That is much more predictive than crap like ERA and WHIP.

Hot Jerry · 05-23-19, 07:50 AM

LT Profits - I think that Detroit is the right side here today , but like u I cant lay that kind of money with shitty team !! AGREE

sosawestbrook · 05-23-19, 07:52 AM

I’m def not opposed to getting into some of the deeper analytics but I’m big on the eye test & I watch a LOT of footage.

Yeah I agree ERA & WHIP can lead astray at times. K/BB I definitely pay attention to. Love me some high GB/AB ratios especially for solid defensive infields.

I don’t deep dive into the numbers searching for gold though. If a pitcher passes the eye test first & then numbers back it up overtime then he’s on the list

Chiefs83 · 05-23-19, 08:33 AM

I like Richards as well I think he’s pretty decent

StackinGreen · 05-23-19, 10:58 AM

gl today LT

stackz125 · 05-23-19, 12:26 PM

Cubs?

dirtycash66 · 05-23-19, 02:32 PM

Its looking like 0-1 today LT. We need to figure out a way to get you out this hole youre in

LT Profits · 05-23-19, 02:37 PM

Originally posted by dirtycash66

Its looking like 0-1 today LT. We need to figure out a way to get you out this hole youre in

I hate low volume days like yesterday and today, I seem to do better with bigger cards. But there is nothing I could do about that, let's see what the weekend brings.