Shev's game total model

Shev2 · 05-20-19, 05:03 PM

Also I can already tell that projections for Wrigley will be off. I need to work on those.

Shev2 · 05-21-19, 08:27 AM

Model went 4-5 yesterday with picks. Will keep tracking it going forward. Won't look to make any changes/adjustments to model until sample size grows. Also working on some more backtesting.

Shev2 · 05-21-19, 11:58 PM

Picks for Wednesday are below. Will post win/loss for model by day after tonight's games wrap.

Shev2 · 05-22-19, 12:04 AM

Last game is still finishing but the over has already hit. Through two days:

By Day
Date	Win	Loss	Push	Win %
5/20/2019	4	5	0	44%
5/21/2019	8	5	0	62%

Shev2 · 05-22-19, 10:48 PM

Through three days

By Day
Date	Win	Loss	Push	Win %
5/20/2019	4	5	0	44%
5/21/2019	8	5	0	62%
5/22/2019	7	6	0	54%

Will run tomorrow's game through and post projections later tonight or early tomorrow. Likely going to Minneapolis to visit a friend from college this weekend. If I remember correctly he models insurance claims. Plenty to talk about with him. Hoping to get some ideas on where things can be improved.

Shev2 · 05-23-19, 09:48 PM

By Day
Date	Win	Loss	Push	Win %
5/20/2019	4	5	0	44%
5/21/2019	8	5	0	62%
5/22/2019	7	6	0	54%
5/23/2019	5	2	1	63%

Working on tomorrow's projections. Will post soon.

Shev2 · 05-23-19, 09:59 PM

By Day
Date	Win	Loss	Push	Win %
5/20/2019	4	5	0	44%
5/21/2019	8	5	0	62%
5/22/2019	7	6	0	54%
5/23/2019	5	2	1	63%

What I have for tomorrow so far:

date	team1	team2	pitcher1	pitcher2	Park	Projected Total	Line	Model Pick
5/24/2019	ANA	TEX	Griffin Canning	Drew Smyly	Angel Stadium of Anaheim (Anaheim, California)	12.13	9.5	Over
5/24/2019	OAK	SEA	Daniel Mengden	Wade LeBlanc	Oakland Coliseum (Oakland, California)	6.93	9.5	Under
5/24/2019	STL	ATL	Miles Mikolas	Mike Foltynewicz	Busch Stadium (St. Louis, Missouri)	9.29	9.5	Under
5/24/2019	MIN	CHW	Jose Berrios	Reynaldo Lopez	Target Field (Minneapolis, Minnesota)	6.47	9.0	Under
5/24/2019	WSN	FLA	Kyle McGowin	Pablo Lopez	Nationals Park (Washington, D.C.)	7.58	9.0	Under
5/24/2019	TOR	SDP	Trent Thornton	Joey Lucchesi	Rogers Centre (Toronto, Ontario)	7.83	8.5	Under
5/24/2019	SFG	ARI	Drew Pomeranz	Robbie Ray	Oracle Park (San Francisco, California)	6.76	7.5	Under
5/24/2019	CLE	TBD	Shane Bieber	Blake Snell	Progressive Field (Cleveland, Ohio)	8.78	7.5	Over

Shev2 · 05-24-19, 12:24 PM

More for today

5/24/2019	COL	BAL	Jeff Hoffman	John Means	Coors Field (Denver, Colorado)	14.01	12.0	Over
5/24/2019	MIL	PHI	Chase Anderson	Jerad Eickhoff	Miller Park (Milwaukee, Wisconsin)	10.81	9.0	Over
5/24/2019	HOU	BOS	Wade Miley	Chris Sale	Minute Maid Park (Houston, Texas)	10.93	8.5	Over
5/24/2019	NYM	DET	Noah Syndergaard	Gregory Soto	Citi Field (New York, New York)	8.56	7.5	Over

Shev2 · 05-25-19, 11:02 AM

Today's projections:

5/25/2019	ANA	TEX	9.29	8.5	Over
5/25/2019	COL	BAL	12.96	11.5	Over
5/25/2019	STL	ATL	9.36	9.0	Over
5/25/2019	PIT	LAD	9.43	8.0	Over
5/25/2019	HOU	BOS	11.14	8.5	Over
5/25/2019	NYM	DET	11.22	9.0	Over
5/25/2019	MIL	PHI	10.83	10.0	Over
5/25/2019	CLE	TBD	10.35	8.5	Over
5/25/2019	OAK	SEA	5.71	9.0	Under
5/25/2019	WSN	FLA	8.70	9.0	Under
5/25/2019	SFG	ARI	7.74	8.0	Under
5/25/2019	TOR	SDP	7.44	10.0	Under
5/25/2019	KCR	NYY	10.17	10.0	Over
5/25/2019	MIN	CHW	8.09	10.5	Under

Results:

By Day
Date	Win	Loss	Push	Win %
5/20/2019	4	5	0	44%
5/21/2019	8	5	0	62%
5/22/2019	7	6	0	54%
5/23/2019	5	2	1	63%
5/24/2019	5	7	0	42%

Shev2 · 05-26-19, 08:17 AM

5/26/2019	STL	ATL	8.83	9.0	Under
5/26/2019	OAK	SEA	8.02	9.5	Under
5/26/2019	ANA	TEX	11.25	9.0	Over
5/26/2019	SFG	ARI	7.54	7.0	Over
5/26/2019	COL	BAL	13.50	12.0	Over
5/26/2019	KCR	NYY	10.10	9.5	Over
5/26/2019	MIN	CHW	7.16	10.5	Under
5/26/2019	MIL	PHI	10.47	8.5	Over
5/26/2019	HOU	BOS	10.27	8.5	Over
5/26/2019	PIT	LAD	10.94	9.0	Over
5/26/2019	NYM	DET	7.44	8.0	Under
5/26/2019	TOR	SDP	7.24	7.5	Under

By Day
Date	Win	Loss	Push	Win %
5/20/2019	4	5	0	44%
5/21/2019	8	5	0	62%
5/22/2019	7	6	0	54%
5/23/2019	5	2	1	63%
5/24/2019	5	7	0	42%
5/25/2019	4	6	3	31%

By Week
BOP Date	EOP Date	Win	Loss	Push	Win %
5/19/2019	5/25/2019	33	31	4	52%

I need to work on how I adjust the model for ballpark and starting pitcher. If anyone has any good ideas or experiences with those and would like to talk more feel free to PM me or just throw a comment here. TIA.

Hman · 05-26-19, 08:29 AM

GL today

KRAL · 05-26-19, 10:29 AM

GL Shev,

im using your model. Please continue publish this model with us. Thank you very much.

Shev2 · 05-26-19, 09:52 PM

Here are picks for tomorrow:

5/27/2019	COL	ARI	Jon Gray	Zack Greinke	13.63	10.00	Over
5/27/2019	MIN	MIL	Michael Pineda	Gio Gonzalez	10.27	9.50	Over
5/27/2019	SEA	TEX	Tommy Milone	Lance Lynn	9.58	9.50	Over
5/27/2019	CHW	KCR	Ivan Nova	Homer Bailey	10.34	9.50	Over
5/27/2019	BOS	CLE	Rick Porcello	Jefry Rodriguez	10.54	9.50	Over
5/27/2019	BAL	DET	Gabriel Ynoa	Daniel Norris	7.95	9.50	Under
5/27/2019	CIN	PIT	Sonny Gray	Mitch Keller	9.39	9.00	Over
5/27/2019	CIN	PIT	Luis Castillo	Nick Kingham	9.50	9.00	Over
5/27/2019	WSN	FLA	Max Scherzer	Jose Urena	7.01	8.00	Under
5/27/2019	LAD	NYM	Clayton Kershaw	Jacob deGrom	9.12	6.50	Over

I have changed the model, just slightly. I changed from adjusting the total final score for quality of starting pitchers to adjusting the individual team scores. This was so that I can try to model team scores as well and be good at that. The actual change to the projections is minimal, because the sum the of the two adjustments is pretty much the same as adjusting once with the total. I also did more research into ballparks and changed some of the adjustments for those. I think the model was allowing for some parks to have too much effect on a projection.

Going into extras in St. Louis. If the game stays under 9.0, the model will pick up another win. Here are today's results minus the St Louis game:

5/26/2019

10

3

0

77%

Needed a day above .500 after back to back down days. I have cataloged the model changes in an excel file. The goal is to make small changes to the model over time to smooth out performance.

Shev2 · 05-26-19, 11:02 PM

I also changed the win % calculation for tracking the model's performance to be wins / (wins + losses) instead of wins / (wins + losses + push)

Shev2 · 05-28-19, 10:49 AM

Today's picks

5/28/2019	LAD	NYM	9.92	8.0	Over
5/28/2019	SEA	TEX	9.49	9.5	Under
5/28/2019	COL	ARI	15.95	11.5	Over
5/28/2019	MIN	MIL	9.37	9.5	Under
5/28/2019	CHW	KCR	8.64	8.5	Over
5/28/2019	ATL	WSN	10.28	9.0	Over
5/28/2019	TBD	TOR	8.30	8.5	Under
5/28/2019	FLA	SFG	5.93	7.5	Under
5/28/2019	BOS	CLE	9.87	9.0	Over
5/28/2019	PHI	STL	10.87	10.0	Over
5/28/2019	BAL	DET	7.33	9.0	Under
5/28/2019	CIN	PIT	10.31	10.0	Over
5/28/2019	NYY	SDP	8.38	9.5	Under

By Day
Date	Win	Loss	Push	Win %
5/20/2019	4	5	0	44%
5/21/2019	8	5	0	62%
5/22/2019	7	6	0	54%
5/23/2019	5	2	1	71%
5/24/2019	5	7	0	42%
5/25/2019	4	6	3	40%
5/26/2019	11	3	0	79%
5/27/2019	6	4	1	60%

Shev2 · 05-29-19, 09:37 AM

date	team1	team2	Park	Projected Total	Line	Model Pick
5/29/2019	LAD	NYM	Dodger Stadium (Los Angeles, California)	8.83	7.5	Over
5/29/2019	TBD	TOR	Tropicana Field (St. Petersburg, Florida)	7.39	7.5	Under
5/29/2019	FLA	SFG	Marlins Park (Miami, Florida)	5.20	7.0	Under
5/29/2019	BAL	DET	Oriole Park at Camden Yards (Baltimore, Maryland)	9.01	10.0	Under
5/29/2019	BOS	CLE	Fenway Park (Boston, Massachusetts)	10.17	9.0	Over
5/29/2019	SEA	TEX	T-Mobile Park (Seattle, Washington)	8.85	9.50	Under
5/29/2019	OAK	ANA	Oakland Coliseum (Oakland, California)	8.12	9.5	Under
5/29/2019	NYY	SDP	Yankee Stadium (New York, New York)	7.38	8.0	Under
5/29/2019	CIN	PIT	Great American Ball Park (Cincinnati, Ohio)	10.35	10.5	Under
5/29/2019	CHW	KCR	Guaranteed Rate Field (Chicago, Illinois)	9.11	9.0	Over
5/29/2019	ATL	WSN	SunTrust Park (Cumberland, GA)	9.82	10.0	Under
5/29/2019	PHI	STL	Citizens Bank Park (Philadelphia, Pennsylvania)	11.16	10.0	Over
5/29/2019	HOU	CHC	Minute Maid Park (Houston, Texas)	10.05	9.0	Over

By Day
Date	Win	Loss	Push	Win %
5/26/2019	11	3	0	79%
5/27/2019	6	5	1	55%
5/28/2019	7	5	1	58%

Shev2 · 05-29-19, 11:06 PM

Surprised at how well the model is doing this week. Last game is finishing up but the daily win/loss numbers for model picks are final:

By Day
Date	Win	Loss	Push	Win %
5/26/2019	11	3	0	79%
5/27/2019	6	5	1	55%
5/28/2019	7	5	1	58%
5/29/2019	9	4	0	69%

Will keep running projections. I'm staying away from Wrigley and Coors projections for now. I need to look at those more closely. In the process of setting up my bankroll to play all of the model picks daily. Hoping to start making either $50 or $100 unit plays with the model starting next week. I'll post those plays with prices too once I start playing.

Shev2 · 05-30-19, 02:46 AM

5/30/2019	SEA	ANA	Yusei Kikuchi	Tyler Skaggs	T-Mobile Park (Seattle, Washington)	7.35	8.5	Under
5/30/2019	PHI	STL	Jerad Eickhoff	Dakota Hudson	Citizens Bank Park (Philadelphia, Pennsylvania)	10.54	10.5	Over
5/30/2019	TEX	KCR	Mike Minor	Jakob Junis	Globe Life Park in Arlington (Arlington, Texas)	9.96	10.0	Under
5/30/2019	CHW	CLE	Manny Banuelos	Carlos Carrasco	Guaranteed Rate Field (Chicago, Illinois)	8.55	9.0	Under
5/30/2019	TBD	MIN	Charlie Morton	Martin Perez	Tropicana Field (St. Petersburg, Florida)	9.45	8.5	Over
5/30/2019	PIT	MIL	Joe Musgrove	Chase Anderson	PNC Park (Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania)	9.28	8.5	Over
5/30/2019	NYY	BOS	J.A. Happ	Chris Sale	Yankee Stadium (New York, New York)	9.73	8.5	Over
5/30/2019	LAD	NYM	Hyun-Jin Ryu	Jason Vargas	Dodger Stadium (Los Angeles, California)	9.88	8.0	Over

Shev2 · 05-31-19, 09:10 AM

Went .500 yesterday. Here's today:

Date	League	Play	Price	Risk	To Win	Book
5/31/2019	MLB	Brewers - Pirates over 9	-119	119.00	100.00	BookMaker
5/31/2019	MLB	Nationals - Reds over 9	-113	113.00	100.00	Heritage
5/31/2019	MLB	Tigers - Braves under 9	-108	108.00	100.00	Heritage
5/31/2019	MLB	Royas - Rangers over 10.5	-115	115.00	100.00	BetDSI
5/31/2019	MLB	Cubs - Cardinals over 9.5	+100	100.00	100.00	BetDSI
5/31/2019	MLB	Phillies - Dodgers over 8.5	-110	110.00	100.00	BetDSI
5/31/2019	MLB	Marlins - Padres under 7	-110	110.00	100.00	BetDSI
5/31/2019	MLB	Astros - Athletics over 8	-120	120.00	100.00	Bovada
5/31/2019	MLB	Angels - Mariners under 9.5	-115	115.00	100.00	BookMaker
5/31/2019	MLB	Mets - Diamondbacks over 8.5	-120	120.00	100.00	BookMaker
5/31/2019	MLB	Twins - Rays over 8	-115	115.00	100.00	BookMaker
5/31/2019	MLB	Red Sox - Yankees over 8.5	-115	115.00	100.00	BookMaker
5/31/2019	MLB	Giants - Orioles under 9.5	-115	115.00	100.00	BookMaker

KRAL · 05-31-19, 11:18 AM

Where is the projected totals bro? Thanks GL

Shev2 · 05-31-19, 11:44 AM

Originally posted by KRAL

Where is the projected totals bro? Thanks GL

Gotchu

date	team1	team2	Park	Projected Total	Line	Model Pick
5/31/2019	PIT	MIL	PNC Park (Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania)	9.48	9.0	Over
5/31/2019	CIN	WSN	Great American Ball Park (Cincinnati, Ohio)	9.86	9.0	Over
5/31/2019	ATL	DET	SunTrust Park (Cumberland, GA)	8.07	9.0	Under
5/31/2019	TEX	KCR	Globe Life Park in Arlington (Arlington, Texas)	12.87	10.5	Over
5/31/2019	STL	CHC	Busch Stadium (St. Louis, Missouri)	9.78	9.5	Over
5/31/2019	SEA	ANA	T-Mobile Park (Seattle, Washington)	9.39	9.5	Under
5/31/2019	SDP	FLA	Petco Park (San Diego, California)	6.18	7.0	Under
5/31/2019	LAD	PHI	Dodger Stadium (Los Angeles, California)	9.59	8.5	Over
5/31/2019	OAK	HOU	Oakland Coliseum (Oakland, California)	8.23	8.0	Over
5/31/2019	ARI	NYM	Chase Field (Phoenix, Arizona)	9.57	8.5	Over
5/31/2019	CHW	CLE	Guaranteed Rate Field (Chicago, Illinois)	8.42	8.5	Under
5/31/2019	TBD	MIN	Tropicana Field (St. Petersburg, Florida)	10.35	8.0	Over
5/31/2019	NYY	BOS	Yankee Stadium (New York, New York)	9.71	8.5	Over
5/31/2019	BAL	SFG	Oriole Park at Camden Yards (Baltimore, Maryland)	8.28	9.5	Under

Shev2 · 06-01-19, 12:30 AM

A game under today. Here's some of tomorrow:

Date	Play	Price	Risk	To Win	Book	Comments
6/1/2019	Brewers - Pirates over 9	-103	103.00	100.00	Heritage	Model Projection - 9.85
6/1/2019	Nationals - Reds over 10	-108	108.00	100.00	Heritage	Model Projection - 10.67
6/1/2019	Mets - Diamondbacks over 7.5	-103	103.00	100.00	Heritage	Model Projection - 7.91
6/1/2019	Indians - White Sox under 10	-105	105.00	100.00	BookMaker	Model Projection - 9.68
6/1/2019	Royals - Rangers over 11	105	100.00	105.00	BookMaker	Model Projection - 12.26
6/1/2019	Angels - Mariners under 9.5	-119	119.00	100.00	BookMaker	Model Projection - 7.64
6/1/2019	Giants - Orioles under 9.5	-115	115.00	100.00	BookMaker	Model Projection - 8.77
6/1/2019	Tigers - Braves under 9	-105	105.00	100.00	BookMaker	Model Projection - 8.52
6/1/2019	Angels - Mariners under 9	-110	110.00	100.00	BookMaker	Model Projection - 7.64
6/1/2019	Astros - Athletics under 8	-115	115.00	100.00	BookMaker	Model Projection - 7.68

Shev2 · 06-01-19, 10:12 AM

Originally posted by Shev2

A game under today. Here's some of tomorrow:

Date	Play	Price	Risk	To Win	Book	Comments
6/1/2019	Brewers - Pirates over 9	-103	103.00	100.00	Heritage	Model Projection - 9.85
6/1/2019	Nationals - Reds over 10	-108	108.00	100.00	Heritage	Model Projection - 10.67
6/1/2019	Mets - Diamondbacks over 7.5	-103	103.00	100.00	Heritage	Model Projection - 7.91
6/1/2019	Indians - White Sox under 10	-105	105.00	100.00	BookMaker	Model Projection - 9.68
6/1/2019	Royals - Rangers over 11	105	100.00	105.00	BookMaker	Model Projection - 12.26
6/1/2019	Angels - Mariners under 9.5	-119	119.00	100.00	BookMaker	Model Projection - 7.64
6/1/2019	Giants - Orioles under 9.5	-115	115.00	100.00	BookMaker	Model Projection - 8.77
6/1/2019	Tigers - Braves under 9	-105	105.00	100.00	BookMaker	Model Projection - 8.52
6/1/2019	Angels - Mariners under 9	-110	110.00	100.00	BookMaker	Model Projection - 7.64
6/1/2019	Astros - Athletics under 8	-115	115.00	100.00	BookMaker	Model Projection - 7.68

Fukked up entering one of my picks. I'm blaming it on the fact that I haven't had coffee yet.

Date	Play	Price	Risk	To Win	Book	Comments
6/1/2019	Red Sox - Yankees over 9.5	-108	108.00	100.00	Heritage	Model Projection - 10.43
6/1/2019	Twins - Rays under 8	-110	110.00	100.00	BetDSI	Model Projection - 10.27 clicked wrong pick

Shev2 · 06-01-19, 04:13 PM

Two more today:

6/1/2019	Marlins - Padres under 8	-115	115.00	100.00	BookMaker	Model Projection - 6.21
6/1/2019	Phillies - Dodgers over 8.5	-110	110.00	100.00	BookMaker	Model Projection - 10.51

Shev2 · 06-01-19, 09:08 PM

Date	Play	Price	Risk	To Win	Book	Comments
6/2/2019	Giants - Orioles under 9.5	-108	108.00	100.00	Heritage	Model Projection - 8.17
6/2/2019	Nationals - Reds over 8.5	-118	118.00	100.00	Heritage	Model Projection - 9.38
6/2/2019	Tigers - Braves under 8.5	+107	100.00	107.00	Heritage	Model Projection - 8.34
6/2/2019	Indians - White Sox over 8.5	-103	103.00	100.00	Heritage	Model Projection - 8.99

Shev2 · 06-02-19, 12:27 AM

Originally posted by Shev2

Date	Play	Price	Risk	To Win	Book	Comments
6/2/2019	Giants - Orioles under 9.5	-108	108.00	100.00	Heritage	Model Projection - 8.17
6/2/2019	Nationals - Reds over 8.5	-118	118.00	100.00	Heritage	Model Projection - 9.38
6/2/2019	Tigers - Braves under 8.5	+107	100.00	107.00	Heritage	Model Projection - 8.34
6/2/2019	Indians - White Sox over 8.5	-103	103.00	100.00	Heritage	Model Projection - 8.99

6/2/2019	Royals - Rangers over 11	-101	101.00	100.00	BookMaker	Model Projection - 12.03
6/2/2019	Phillies - Dodgers over 9	-105	105.00	100.00	BookMaker	Model Projection - 10.98
6/2/2019	Astros - Athletics under 8	-120	120.00	100.00	BookMaker	Model Projection - 7.81
6/2/2019	Mets - Diamondbacks over 9	-120	120.00	100.00	BookMaker	Model Projection - 11.23

Need a good day tomorrow

Shev2 · 06-02-19, 01:40 AM

More for tomorrow. Waiting on lines to post for Milwaukee/Pittsburgh and Minnesota/Tampa.

6/2/2019	Angels - Mariners under 9.5	-108	108.00	100.00	Heritage	Model Projection - 8.16
6/2/2019	Red Sox - Yankees over 9.5	+102	100.00	102.00	Heritage	Model Projection - 9.95

Shev2 · 06-02-19, 08:52 AM

6/2/2019	Brewers - Pirates over 9	-113	113.00	100.00	Heritage	Model Projection - 9.67
6/2/2019	Twins - Rays over 8	-113	113.00	100.00	Heritage	Model Projection - 10.18

JORDANISTHEGOAT · 06-03-19, 07:50 PM

bad beat