on3's MLB 2019 Opening Day System

grecycle99 · 06-09-19, 01:05 PM

Originally posted by bren2323

Can someone please explain to me how you go from to win 3.69 to win 3.11 units the day after a loss so we are supposed to add the amount of money lost on game A + the 3.11 units to find what we should bet on Game B???

Don't forget that the A bet is on the A line and B on B line

Deenoz · 06-09-19, 05:40 PM

nice (C) bet win!

grecycle99 · 06-10-19, 04:36 PM

UPDATED for 06/10/2019

System(s) record Chase:

Regular system: 99-2; Profit: 44.88 units
Filtered System: 43-0; Profit: 27.40 units
5/2 chase: 17-0; profit: 73 units

Total (3 systems) : 159-2; Profit: 145.28 unit (Series chase lost : San Diego -11.50u, Cleveland -3.99u )

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)

Game 1 (A) win = 59-42; 26-17
Game 2 (B) win = 28-14; 13-4; 13-4
Game 3 (C) win = 12-2; 4-0; 4-0

Labby Line (20$ = 1unit)

(A) 44.84-44.84-44.84-44.84-44.84-44.84-44.84-44.84-44.84-44.84-44.84-44.84-44.84-44.84-44.84
(B) 31.05-31.05-31.05-31.05-67.80
(C) 10-10-10-10

REGULAR FOR 06/10/2019

(A) Boston RL -122 to win 4.49u
(A) Tampa Bay RL -120 to win 4.49u

Filtered

(A) Tampa Bay RL -120 to win 4.49u

5/2

No Play

MexMamba · 06-10-19, 07:21 PM

To win 1u to win 4.49?

grecycle99 · 06-10-19, 08:08 PM

Originally posted by MexMamba

To win 1u to win 4.49?

Thanks I corrected it

grecycle99 · 06-11-19, 10:26 AM

UPDATED for 06/11/2019

System(s) record Chase:

Regular system: 99-2; Profit: 44.88 units
Filtered System: 43-0; Profit: 27.40 units
5/2 chase: 17-0; profit: 73 units

Total (3 systems) : 159-2; Profit: 145.28 unit (Series chase lost : San Diego -11.50u, Cleveland -3.99u )

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)

Game 1 (A) win = 59-42; 26-17
Game 2 (B) win = 28-14; 13-4; 13-4
Game 3 (C) win = 12-2; 4-0; 4-0

Labby Line (20$ = 1unit)

(A) 50.24-50.24-50.24-50.24-50.24-50.24-50.24-50.24-50.24-50.24-50.24-50.24
(B) 38.40-38.40-38.40-38.40-38.40
(C) 10-10-10-10

REGULAR FOR 06/11/2019

(A) Minnesota RL 102 to win 5.03u
(B) Boston -169 to win 3.84u

Filtered

(A) Minnesota RL 102 to win 5.03u

5/2

No Play

grecycle99 · 06-12-19, 10:40 AM

UPDATED for 06/11/2019

System(s) record Chase:

Regular system: 99-2; Profit: 44.88 units
Filtered System: 43-0; Profit: 27.40 units
5/2 chase: 17-0; profit: 73 units

Total (3 systems) : 159-2; Profit: 145.28 unit (Series chase lost : San Diego -11.50u, Cleveland -3.99u )

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)

Game 1 (A) win = 59-42; 26-17
Game 2 (B) win = 28-14; 13-4; 13-4
Game 3 (C) win = 12-2; 4-0; 4-0

Labby Line (20$ = 1unit)

(A) 50.24-50.24-50.24-50.24-50.24-50.24-50.24-50.24-50.24-50.24-50.24-50.24-0.60-100.60
(B) 53.62-53.62-53.62-53.62-53.62-53.62
(C) 23.34-23.34-23.34-23.34-23.34-23.34

REGULAR FOR 06/11/2019

(B) Minnesota RL -125 to win 5.37u
(C) Boston -143 to win 2.34u

Filtered

(B) Minnesota RL -125 to win 5.37u

5/2

(A) Minnesota RL -125 to win 5u

grecycle99 · 06-13-19, 11:55 AM

Regular

(A) LA Dodgers -165 to win 5.03u
(A) NY Mets -148 to win 5.03u
(A) Tampa Bay -142 to win 5.03u
(C) Minnesota -167 to win 2.34u

Filtered

(A) Tampa Bay -142 to win 5.03u
(C) Minnesota -167 to win 2.34u

5/2

(B) Minnesota -167 to win 8.25u

MexMamba · 06-13-19, 02:05 PM

Colorado??, right Now at 150

Deenoz · 06-13-19, 02:05 PM

what about the Mets?
they are starting a 4 game series with the Cardinals.

Deenoz · 06-13-19, 02:10 PM

Originally posted by Deenoz

what about the Mets?
they are starting a 4 game series with the Cardinals.

sorry, my bad. i just saw it! ignore this.

positivebankroll · 06-13-19, 06:06 PM

Originally posted by grecycle99

Regular

(A) LA Dodgers -165 to win 5.03u
(A) NY Mets -148 to win 5.03u
(A) Tampa Bay -142 to win 5.03u
(C) Minnesota -167 to win 2.34u

Filtered

(A) Tampa Bay -142 to win 5.03u
(C) Minnesota -167 to win 2.34u

5/2

(B) Minnesota -167 to win 8.25u

tampa bay is only -142? Thought it should be -145 and up?

grecycle99 · 06-13-19, 07:26 PM

Tampa were not a play when I posted but became a play as they closed at -146 and colorado are a play for regular and filtered thank you guys

bren2323 · 06-14-19, 07:32 AM

What happens if your book Voided the Mets game last night?

Deenoz · 06-14-19, 02:05 PM

looks like theres quite a few (A) games on today.

mcmister · 06-14-19, 02:15 PM

Min, Hou, Oak, Cin it looks like.... but I'm not driving

grecycle99 · 06-14-19, 03:01 PM

June 14

Regular

(A) Cincinnati -162 to win 5.03u
(A) Houston RL -137 to win 5.03u
(A) Minnesota RL -118 to win 5.03u
(A) Oakland -181 to win 5.03u
(B) Tampa Bay -168 to win 5.37u

Filtered

(A) Cincinnati -162 to win 5.03u
(A) Minnesota RL -118 to win 5.03u
(A) Oakland -181 to win 5.03
(B) Tampa Bay -168 to win 5.37u

5/2

(A) Tampa Bay -168 to win 5.37u

mcmister · 06-15-19, 08:17 AM

I hope this is useful.

Here is the specific formula that you have to create yourself a -1.0 run line and give yourself a true statistical advantage:
100/MONEYLINE = X
X + 1.0 = Y
100/Y = money line wager
OK, that formula (it's a lot easier than it looks, just take a pen and paper and practice a bit) calculates how much you're going to put on the money line. The next step is to figure out how much profit that money line bet will yield. Your online book normally calculates that if you put the amount you want to risk in. If not, simply use this formula:
100/MONEYLINE = Z
Money line wager x Z = A
A = run line wager
OK, so you've got your money line wager and now you've calculated your run line wager. For simplicities sake, you're run line wager is going to be exactly the same as the amount you would win off your money line bet.
If I haven't completely confused you, here is an example of the theory in practice:
Let's say we wanted to work a -1.0 run line on the Los Angeles Angels against the Seattle Mariners and the Angels are -130 favorites with a -1.5 run line at +160. Here's what we'd be looking at:
100/130 = 0.769 (we use 130 because that's the money line)
0.769 + 1.0 = 1.769
100/1.769 = 56.53
That means 56.53 is our money line wager on the Angels at -130. That bet would yield a profit of 43.25. We then would place a bet of 43.25 on the Angels (-1.5) at +160. That bet would yield a profit of 69.20. Your overall card would look like this:
Straight bet (Angels -130): bet 56.53 to win 43.25.
Run line bet (Angels -1.5, +160): bet 43.25 to win 69.20.
Total bet (Angels -1): bet 100 to win 112.45.
So now you're in a situation where if the Angels win by a run you're breaking even. If they win by two or more runs you're getting $112 for every $100 you bet compared to the $77 you would have won for a straight bet at -130. You've essentially turned a -130 favorite into a +112 wager.
Now, I know you're probably thinking that if you believe the Angels are going to win by two runs or more (what it would take to make this bet pay out) then why not just play the straight run line wager and get $160 back for your $100 bet? Well, that's a decent point and you should feel free to do that. But the beauty of the -1.0 run line is that it eliminates bad beats if your team loses by a single run. Gambling is all about risk management and, in my professional opinion and experience, using a -1.0 run line is an exceptional way to maximize profit while limiting exposure.

nistor22 · 06-15-19, 12:03 PM

Great!!! Thank you!

Originally posted by mcmister

I hope this is useful.

Here is the specific formula that you have to create yourself a -1.0 run line and give yourself a true statistical advantage:
100/MONEYLINE = X
X + 1.0 = Y
100/Y = money line wager
OK, that formula (it's a lot easier than it looks, just take a pen and paper and practice a bit) calculates how much you're going to put on the money line. The next step is to figure out how much profit that money line bet will yield. Your online book normally calculates that if you put the amount you want to risk in. If not, simply use this formula:
100/MONEYLINE = Z
Money line wager x Z = A
A = run line wager
OK, so you've got your money line wager and now you've calculated your run line wager. For simplicities sake, you're run line wager is going to be exactly the same as the amount you would win off your money line bet.
If I haven't completely confused you, here is an example of the theory in practice:
Let's say we wanted to work a -1.0 run line on the Los Angeles Angels against the Seattle Mariners and the Angels are -130 favorites with a -1.5 run line at +160. Here's what we'd be looking at:
100/130 = 0.769 (we use 130 because that's the money line)
0.769 + 1.0 = 1.769
100/1.769 = 56.53
That means 56.53 is our money line wager on the Angels at -130. That bet would yield a profit of 43.25. We then would place a bet of 43.25 on the Angels (-1.5) at +160. That bet would yield a profit of 69.20. Your overall card would look like this:
Straight bet (Angels -130): bet 56.53 to win 43.25.
Run line bet (Angels -1.5, +160): bet 43.25 to win 69.20.
Total bet (Angels -1): bet 100 to win 112.45.
So now you're in a situation where if the Angels win by a run you're breaking even. If they win by two or more runs you're getting $112 for every $100 you bet compared to the $77 you would have won for a straight bet at -130. You've essentially turned a -130 favorite into a +112 wager.
Now, I know you're probably thinking that if you believe the Angels are going to win by two runs or more (what it would take to make this bet pay out) then why not just play the straight run line wager and get $160 back for your $100 bet? Well, that's a decent point and you should feel free to do that. But the beauty of the -1.0 run line is that it eliminates bad beats if your team loses by a single run. Gambling is all about risk management and, in my professional opinion and experience, using a -1.0 run line is an exceptional way to maximize profit while limiting exposure.

owll52 · 06-15-19, 02:37 PM

How does this work on a minus run-line? Example Oakland M/L -209 R/L -1 1/2 -113.....Thanks

Deenoz · 06-15-19, 04:47 PM

thanks mcmister

mcmister · 06-15-19, 06:25 PM

Originally posted by owll52

How does this work on a minus run-line? Example Oakland M/L -209 R/L -1 1/2 -113.....Thanks

Hi. Same exact way. Just plug in whatever numbers you have. BOL

positivebankroll · 06-16-19, 07:10 AM

Originally posted by grecycle99

June 14

Regular

(A) Cincinnati -162 to win 5.03u
(A) Houston RL -137 to win 5.03u
(A) Minnesota RL -118 to win 5.03u
(A) Oakland -181 to win 5.03u
(B) Tampa Bay -168 to win 5.37u

Filtered

(A) Cincinnati -162 to win 5.03u
(A) Minnesota RL -118 to win 5.03u
(A) Oakland -181 to win 5.03
(B) Tampa Bay -168 to win 5.37u

5/2

(A) Tampa Bay -168 to win 5.37u

was Oakland a 5/2 yesterday??

vigster · 06-16-19, 07:22 AM

Originally posted by positivebankroll

was Oakland a 5/2 yesterday??

Yes.

OAK RL and Cinn ML

owll52 · 06-16-19, 08:17 AM

Your numbers are good but books have adjusted for this. Here is an example: these numbers are taken from Heritage this morning.
Colorado -145 -1.5 +117. using the formula

M/L bet 59.52 to win 41.05
R/L -1.5 bet 41.05 to win 48.03

Total amount bet 100.57
If both bets win total 89.08 difference of -11.49. Of course that is a profit of 89.08 for both bets winning, push for the M/L bet winning and a loss of 100.57 if both lose.

I am not trying to be confrontational I just wanted to point this out, if my math is wrong I apologize in advance.

msetai · 06-16-19, 11:17 AM

Is anyone able to help out our buddy grecycle99? He maintains a lot of threads and seems to be getting busier, but still crushing it! Thanks for everything that you do for this community. I would try to post but I’m not 100% exactly what makes things qualify/not

Thanks in advance to any volunteers!

vigster · 06-16-19, 11:26 AM

REGULAR

(C) Cincinnati ML

FILTERED

(C) Cincinnati ML

5/2

(B) Cincinnati ML

grecycle99 · 06-16-19, 11:30 AM

UPDATED for 06/13/2019

System(s) record Chase:

Regular system: 99-2; Profit: 44.88 units
Filtered System: 43-0; Profit: 27.40 units
5/2 chase: 17-0; profit: 73 units

Total (3 systems) : 159-2; Profit: 145.28 unit (Series chase lost : San Diego -11.50u, Cleveland -3.99u )

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)

Game 1 (A) win = 59-42; 26-17
Game 2 (B) win = 28-14; 13-4; 13-4
Game 3 (C) win = 12-2; 4-0; 4-0

Labby Line (20$ = 1unit)

(A) 50.24-50.24-50.24-50.24-50.24-50.24-50.24-50.24-50.24-50.24-50.24-50.24-0.60-100.60
(B) 53.62-53.62-53.62-53.62-53.62-53.62-134.25-134.25
(C) 23.34-23.34-23.34-23.34

REGULAR FOR 06/13/2019

(A) LA Dodgers -165 to win 5.03u
(A) NY Mets -148 to win 5.03u
(A) Tampa Bay -142 to win 5.03u
(C) Minnesota -167 to win 2.34u

Filtered

(A) Tampa Bay -142 to win 5.03u
(C) Minnesota -167 to win 2.34u

5/2

(B) Minnesota -167 to win 8.25u

MexMamba · 06-16-19, 11:38 AM

I think you are making a mistake...
We only play
Cincci

grecycle99 · 06-16-19, 11:44 AM

UPDATED for 06/14/2019

System(s) record Chase:

Regular system: 99-2; Profit: 44.88 units
Filtered System: 43-0; Profit: 27.40 units
5/2 chase: 17-0; profit: 73 units

Total (3 systems) : 159-2; Profit: 145.28 unit (Series chase lost : San Diego -11.50u, Cleveland -3.99u )

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)

Game 1 (A) win = 59-42; 26-17
Game 2 (B) win = 28-14; 13-4; 13-4
Game 3 (C) win = 12-2; 4-0; 4-0

Labby Line (20$ = 1unit)

(A) 50.24-50.24-50.24-50.24-50.24-50.24-50.24-50.24-50.24-50.24-0.60-100.60-142.86-142.86
(B) 53.62-53.62-53.62-53.62-53.62-53.62-134.25-134.25
(C)

REGULAR FOR 06/14/2019

(A) Cincinnati -162 to win 5.03u
(A) Houston RL -137 to win 5.03u
(A) Minnesota RL -118 to win 5.03u
(A) Oakland -181 to win 5.03u
(B) Tampa Bay -168 to win 5.37u

Filtered

(A) Cincinnati -162 to win 5.03u
(A) Minnesota RL to win 5.03u
(A) Oakland -181 to win 5.03u
(B) Tampa Bay -168 to win 5.37u

5/2

(A) Tampa Bay -168 to win 5u

grecycle99 · 06-16-19, 12:15 PM

UPDATED for 06/15/2019

System(s) record Chase:

Regular system: 99-2; Profit: 44.88 units
Filtered System: 43-0; Profit: 27.40 units
5/2 chase: 17-0; profit: 73 units

Total (3 systems) : 159-2; Profit: 145.28 unit (Series chase lost : San Diego -11.50u, Cleveland -3.99u )

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)

Game 1 (A) win = 59-42; 26-17
Game 2 (B) win = 28-14; 13-4; 13-4
Game 3 (C) win = 12-2; 4-0; 4-0

Labby Line (20$ = 1unit)

(A) 50.24-50.24-50.24-50.24-0.60-100.60-142.86-142.86-162.97-182.09-162.97-182.09
(B) 53.62-53.62-134.25-134.25
(C)

REGULAR FOR 06/15/2019

(B) Cincinnati -118 to win 5.37u
(B) Oakland RL -104 to win 5.37u

Filtered

(B) Cincinnati -118 to win 5.37u
(B) Oakland RL -104 to win 5.37u

5/2

(A) Cincinnati -118 to win 5u
(A) Oakland RL -104 to win 5u

grecycle99 · 06-16-19, 12:18 PM

UPDATED for 06/16/2019

System(s) record Chase:

Regular system: 99-2; Profit: 44.88 units
Filtered System: 43-0; Profit: 27.40 units
5/2 chase: 17-0; profit: 73 units

Total (3 systems) : 159-2; Profit: 145.28 unit (Series chase lost : San Diego -11.50u, Cleveland -3.99u )

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)

Game 1 (A) win = 59-42; 26-17
Game 2 (B) win = 28-14; 13-4; 13-4
Game 3 (C) win = 12-2; 4-0; 4-0

Labby Line (20$ = 1unit)

(A) 50.24-50.24-50.24-50.24-0.60-100.60-142.86-142.86-162.97-182.09-62.97-82.09
(B) 53.62-53.62-134.25-134.25-73.03-73.03
(C) 50-50-50-50

REGULAR FOR 06/15/2019

(C) Cincinnati -175 to win 5u

Filtered

(C) Cincinnati -175 to win 5u

5/2

(B) Cincinnati -175 to win 7.9u

grecycle99 · 06-16-19, 12:19 PM

***

Deenoz · 06-17-19, 01:32 AM

boom, boom & boom Reds gets it done.

positivebankroll · 06-17-19, 05:24 AM

Originally posted by grecycle99

UPDATED for 06/16/2019

System(s) record Chase:

Regular system: 99-2; Profit: 44.88 units
Filtered System: 43-0; Profit: 27.40 units
5/2 chase: 17-0; profit: 73 units

Total (3 systems) : 159-2; Profit: 145.28 unit (Series chase lost : San Diego -11.50u, Cleveland -3.99u )

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)

Game 1 (A) win = 59-42; 26-17
Game 2 (B) win = 28-14; 13-4; 13-4
Game 3 (C) win = 12-2; 4-0; 4-0

Labby Line (20$ = 1unit)

(A) 50.24-50.24-50.24-50.24-0.60-100.60-142.86-142.86-162.97-182.09-62.97-82.09
(B) 53.62-53.62-134.25-134.25-73.03-73.03
(C) 50-50-50-50

REGULAR FOR 06/15/2019

(C) Cincinnati -175 to win 5u

Filtered

(C) Cincinnati -175 to win 5u

5/2

(B) Cincinnati -175 to win 7.9u

Can anyone explain the meaning of 5/2?