Mafia Leans/Crumbs 7-11

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  • solobass
    SBR MVP
    • 01-15-09
    • 1277

    #1
    Mafia Leans/Crumbs 7-11
    Here we go…..
    National League
    CHC-180 (see comments below)
    WAS+145 yeah I said the nats. By my numbers this is a tossup game.
    LAD -115
    PHI-245
    NYM-138 (see comments below)
    FLA+100 Crappiest combined pitching on the board today, but marlins get the call
    ATL+105
    SF (No odds) but the Giants should be at least -190
    American League
    LAA-110 do not let the odds fool you the halos have the edge here
    CLE+110 betting against my tigers, gallaraga’s numbers are horrendous 1.65 hr’s per 9, 2nd highest on the board today
    BOS-172 odds are about right on for this one, and Smoltz should get a W here.
    SEA-110 Mariners have a slight edge, I expected the odds to be -115 or -120 so there is good value here
    TB (no odds) remember when I said the rays were sabermetrically due to rip off a win streak? .690 home %, 4 W’s in a row, no surprise here. If rays lose, I will chase them tomorrow to make back my money.
    TOR (no odds)
    MIN (no odds) but this is another close tossup.

    Ted Lilly has pitched into the 6th inning in his last 10 starts and has a .95 whip at home. Pitchers with a home or away whip below .100 get a bonus in my formula. Today Weaver (dodgers) and Washburn (mariners) join the list with Lilly.
    Smoltz is due, 10k’s 3bb and no homers yielded yet he is searching for his first win.
    Worst pitcher by the numbers on the board today is Thompson (cardinals) but he has some company down there……
    Do not be fooled by the Under 7.5 in the Mets/Reds game, Santana gives up 1.24 Hr’s per 9 and Cueto (last seen getting pounded by Philly) gives up 1.21 Hr’s per 9. Bad defense and a low scoring game last night (3-0 Reds) will make more of a difference than inept offense today. There is more value on the o/u than on the moneyline today in this game.

    In conclusion there are some great matchups today and I am parlaying Cubs, Phillies (finally winning @ home) and Red Sox along with my straight plays. I am laying off the White Sox/Twinkies game and the Halos/Yanks game and betting the O/U for Mets/Reds and everything else betting straight. Once I get odds on the other games I will make calls as to lay off, parlay or straight bet those.

    Best of luck today and make some cash!
  • shoebox
    Restricted User
    • 11-26-08
    • 5710

    #2
    GL today solo!

    Comment
    • solobass
      SBR MVP
      • 01-15-09
      • 1277

      #3
      you too bro, things have been on an uptick. what do you like today?
      Comment
      • aznjeff07
        SBR MVP
        • 05-22-09
        • 1295

        #4
        go cubs! lilly will get it done
        Comment
        • shoebox
          Restricted User
          • 11-26-08
          • 5710

          #5
          Originally posted by solobass
          you too bro, things have been on an uptick. what do you like today?

          still looking at a few games, should have something this afternoon....
          Comment
          • curious
            Restricted User
            • 07-20-07
            • 9093

            #6
            Rays -175 3.5 to win 2
            Blue Jays -110 1.1 to win 1
            Dodgers -110 2.2 to win 2
            Tigers -120 2.4 to win 2
            Astros -155 1.55 to win 1
            White Sox +100 1 to win 1
            Rockies -120 1.2 to win 1
            Padres/Giants UNDER 8 -110 1.1 to win 1

            Leans:
            Big Fish/Rattlers OVER 10
            - found an intersting stat. When Garland follows Haren back to back, Garland gets lit up. When he doesn't follow Haren back to back he does pretty good. Turns out Garland has the same pitches Haren has, but Haren throws much harder so hitters get a replay of Haren in slow motion.
            Big Fish ML +115 Sean West is TERRIBLE on the road. So, I'm not crazy about this one, I like the OVER better.

            Phillies -250 2.5 to win 1 - I don't understand this line. Hamels is good but not THIS good.
            Phillies RL -1 1/2 -120 1.2 to win 1

            This is in effect a RL -1 -185
            Comment
            • solobass
              SBR MVP
              • 01-15-09
              • 1277

              #7
              i hear you on the phillies line, i think it is high because of offensive awakening and finally starting to get some wins @ home. they started out horrible this year in their own yard.
              Comment
              • solobass
                SBR MVP
                • 01-15-09
                • 1277

                #8
                curious that is good data on garland. you add a lot to the boards here. garland has 39k's 39bb's the has the control of robert downey jr. right now.
                Comment
                • TheLemonDropKid
                  SBR MVP
                  • 02-02-09
                  • 1501

                  #9
                  Solo,

                  I just went on another guy's thread thinking I was talking to you. I thought it strange that you changed your avatar.....I guess I was still half asleep.

                  Line Movement supports your following picks:

                  CHIC 82% -151 to -172
                  WAS 22% +151 to +145
                  PHI 76% -230 to -250
                  ATL 34% +122 to +107
                  CLE 46% +140 to +110
                  TOR 68% +100 to -112

                  So what I was telling you in the WRONG thread.....I would really like to hear some of your stuff.
                  Comment
                  • solobass
                    SBR MVP
                    • 01-15-09
                    • 1277

                    #10
                    sure PM me your email and i will send you some links! funkin out on the space bass....and btw only one solo here me the funkateer. cash in today LDK!
                    Comment
                    • curious
                      Restricted User
                      • 07-20-07
                      • 9093

                      #11
                      Originally posted by solobass
                      i hear you on the phillies line, i think it is high because of offensive awakening and finally starting to get some wins @ home. they started out horrible this year in their own yard.
                      Yes, the Phillies stats in every category are so far above the Pirates stats for the last month or so that I think the Phillies probably crush the Pirates in this game. But -250 is just too steep. I'll probably do the RL -1 play at -185
                      Comment
                      • TheLemonDropKid
                        SBR MVP
                        • 02-02-09
                        • 1501

                        #12
                        Originally posted by shoebox
                        still looking at a few games, should have something this afternoon....

                        Looking forward to hearing what you got Mr. Infuego! Awesome job lately Shoe....please stay in the zone for us.
                        Comment
                        • Kav
                          SBR MVP
                          • 02-25-09
                          • 3281

                          #13
                          -178 for the cubbies on the ML? im gonna get the + money and go with the RL +115!!! thompson sucks, lilly FTW!!!
                          Comment
                          • TheLemonDropKid
                            SBR MVP
                            • 02-02-09
                            • 1501

                            #14
                            Originally posted by solobass
                            sure PM me your email and i will send you some links! funkin out on the space bass....and btw only one solo here me the funkateer. cash in today LDK!

                            Will do bro.......and you right about dat funky mutha-funker!!!!!
                            Comment
                            • solobass
                              SBR MVP
                              • 01-15-09
                              • 1277

                              #15
                              congrats milehighmonsters on his 22 unit twinkies hit last night i am out until tonight.
                              Comment
                              • TheLemonDropKid
                                SBR MVP
                                • 02-02-09
                                • 1501

                                #16
                                Originally posted by solobass
                                congrats milehighmonsters on his 22 unit twinkies hit last night i am out until tonight.

                                Yeah....I was on that one with him.....his unit risk had me convinced it was a good play........he must have been sweating his balls off though.....it went down to the wire.
                                Comment
                                • hockeytown71
                                  SBR Hustler
                                  • 02-21-09
                                  • 95

                                  #17
                                  So far for today:

                                  Atl/Col Under 9.5 (2 units)
                                  Atl/Col Under 5 in 1st 5 (2Units)
                                  SF -1.5 (-120) (2Units)
                                  Rays ml -170 (lots of juice but I like it) (1 Unit)
                                  Det 1st 5 inn (-125) (1 Unit)
                                  Toronto ml -116 (3 Units)
                                  Tex/Sea Under 8 (2 Units)
                                  Tex/Sea Under 4.5 in 1st 5 inn -120 (4 Units)
                                  Comment
                                  • peterpan19
                                    Restricted User
                                    • 11-02-08
                                    • 3377

                                    #18
                                    today I am rolling with
                                    LAD... somehow the line seems fishy...but Burns is crap right now and LAD bats are hot
                                    NYM...Santana go
                                    CLE... would love to bet on det, but no way...
                                    TOR... better pitcher...

                                    GL guys I am hoping for a 3-1 at least
                                    Comment
                                    • peterpan19
                                      Restricted User
                                      • 11-02-08
                                      • 3377

                                      #19
                                      early on small best on cubs and NYY...GL
                                      Comment
                                      • repski
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 02-01-09
                                        • 1929

                                        #20
                                        Tigers very heavy

                                        -125...and run line
                                        Comment
                                        • ragiche
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 12-09-08
                                          • 3110

                                          #21
                                          My plays for today.

                                          Metros ML (5x) Santana is due for a win.Period.

                                          G-men RL (5x) Going for the trend in this series between these 2 teams all home teams wins.

                                          TB ML (5x) Hot bats and I think their going in the right direction right now.

                                          Phillies RL (5x) Healthy Hamels on the mound.Enough said.

                                          Cubbies ML (5x) I can't see Lily losing this game we know that the redbirds bats are hot but with a young pitcher on the mound i think the cubs will get this one and give the redbirds their own medicine.

                                          Twinkies ML (5x) Been swept 3 games by the yanks their last time out.With the palehose not so good numbers in the dome and adding to their low batting avg. on the road.The twinkies have a huge advantage here.

                                          Sorry guys if i don't have stats to backup my plays.GL to all of you today.
                                          Comment
                                          • Jimbo42
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 01-04-09
                                            • 2076

                                            #22
                                            Cubs runline
                                            Yanks moneyline



                                            Comment
                                            • curious
                                              Restricted User
                                              • 07-20-07
                                              • 9093

                                              #23
                                              Originally posted by curious
                                              Rays -175 3.5 to win 2
                                              Blue Jays -110 1.1 to win 1
                                              Dodgers -110 2.2 to win 2
                                              Tigers -120 2.4 to win 2
                                              Astros -155 1.55 to win 1
                                              White Sox +100 1 to win 1
                                              Rockies -120 1.2 to win 1
                                              Padres/Giants UNDER 8 -110 1.1 to win 1

                                              Adding:
                                              Phillies RL -1 -190 1.9 to win 1
                                              Giants RL -1 -185 1.85 to win 1

                                              (If you can't get a RL of -1 you can make it yourself by playing the ML and the RL
                                              -1 1/2, Play the ML to win the amount risked on the RL).

                                              Adding
                                              Florida +120 1 to win 1.2
                                              Red Sox -165 1.65 to win 1

                                              Leans:
                                              Big Fish/Rattlers OVER 10
                                              - found an intersting stat. When Garland follows Haren back to back, Garland gets lit up. When he doesn't follow Haren back to back he does pretty good. Turns out Garland has the same pitches Haren has, but Haren throws much harder so hitters get a replay of Haren in slow motion.
                                              Big Fish ML +115 Sean West is TERRIBLE on the road. So, I'm not crazy about this one, I like the OVER better.

                                              Phillies -250 2.5 to win 1 - I don't understand this line. Hamels is good but not THIS good.
                                              Phillies RL -1 1/2 -120 1.2 to win 1

                                              This is in effect a RL -1 -185
                                              Turned the phillies lean into a play. Added a play on the Giants. Added a play on the Marlins. Added a play on the Red Sox.
                                              Comment
                                              • JumpoffJoeBeezy
                                                SBR Wise Guy
                                                • 12-17-08
                                                • 928

                                                #24
                                                I actually kinda like Detroit today.. Galarraga has been pretty good in his last three.. And he's pitching against Pavano..
                                                Comment
                                                • curious
                                                  Restricted User
                                                  • 07-20-07
                                                  • 9093

                                                  #25
                                                  Originally posted by JumpoffJoeBeezy
                                                  I actually kinda like Detroit today.. Galarraga has been pretty good in his last three.. And he's pitching against Pavano..
                                                  I love Detroit today. My biggest play.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • Jimbo42
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 01-04-09
                                                    • 2076

                                                    #26
                                                    Tampa Bay runline


                                                    Comment
                                                    • thegenix
                                                      SBR Sharp
                                                      • 11-14-08
                                                      • 339

                                                      #27
                                                      Angels with the comeback!
                                                      Comment
                                                      • JumpoffJoeBeezy
                                                        SBR Wise Guy
                                                        • 12-17-08
                                                        • 928

                                                        #28
                                                        Hammered down on the Blue Birds, Mariners, and Tigers.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • thegenix
                                                          SBR Sharp
                                                          • 11-14-08
                                                          • 339

                                                          #29
                                                          WTF is Hamels doing?!
                                                          Comment
                                                          • Jimbo42
                                                            SBR MVP
                                                            • 01-04-09
                                                            • 2076

                                                            #30
                                                            Originally posted by Jimbo42
                                                            Cubs runline
                                                            Yanks moneyline



                                                            1-1 here....
                                                            Comment
                                                            • xXxBallin21xXx
                                                              SBR Wise Guy
                                                              • 07-11-09
                                                              • 590

                                                              #31
                                                              Seattle and SF 2nite!!!
                                                              Comment
                                                              • JumpoffJoeBeezy
                                                                SBR Wise Guy
                                                                • 12-17-08
                                                                • 928

                                                                #32
                                                                Took a serious beating today.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • curious
                                                                  Restricted User
                                                                  • 07-20-07
                                                                  • 9093

                                                                  #33
                                                                  Originally posted by JumpoffJoeBeezy
                                                                  Took a serious beating today.
                                                                  Tell me about it. I went 3-7-2. I don't think I have ever won a RL -1 or -1 1/2 bet. But I just can't lay that heavy wood. Giants and Phillies were better plays on the ML, but -250 and -200 was just too steep.

                                                                  Wrote down a play wrong, listed the Astros and actually had the Angels. Not sure why I did that I hate the Astros.

                                                                  Anyway, gave back everything that I made on the 10-2 run yesterday, now standing at 13-9-2 +.5 units. UGH.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • solobass
                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                    • 01-15-09
                                                                    • 1277

                                                                    #34
                                                                    10-5, 3 team parlay hit, and i even called the nats to win +145!
                                                                    Comment
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