I’ve always found it to be unfair that the starter gets full blame for any men he leaves on base. If he leaves a guy on first base with 2 outs, and the reliever lets the guy get home, it counts against the starter.
Unfortunately, I haven’t found a single system that adjusts ERAs for this.
A simple way to adjust for this is to attribute 0.25 runs to the starter and 0.75 to the reliever if a runner was left at first, split it 50/50 if the runner was left on second and attribute .75 runs to the starter and .25 runs to the reliever if the starter allowed the guy to get to third.
A more complicated measure I’ve thought of is to give the starter credit for the expected runs in the inning when he left the game. For example, if a pitcher allows 0 runs through six innings, and is taken out after allowing the bases to get loaded with 2 outs in the seventh, then his ERA for the game would be allowing 0.79 runs through seven innings. (A team is expected to score 0.79 runs if the bases are loaded with 2 outs, according to a Greg Stoll’s calculator.) The starter get credit for 7 whole innings, rather than 6.67, since this would measure what the starter would have been expected to allow if he had finished the seventh. Furthermore, the starter would get credit for allowing 0.79 runs even if the reliever didn’t allow any of the men on base to score. It isn’t the starter’s doing if the reliever strikes out the next batter to end the inning without any damage. Just like it isn’t the starter’s doing if the reliever allows a grand slam.
Anyway, is anybody aware of systems similar to what I suggested above?
Such a system could be valuable in betting. We know ahead of time what starters are going to pitch in a game, but we don’t know what relievers will pitch. Such a system would tell us what pitchers are getting their ERAs harmed by their relievers, and which are getting bailed out by relief.
And, no, I do not have time to look through thousands of MLB play by play game logs to calculate this myself.
Unfortunately, I haven’t found a single system that adjusts ERAs for this.
A simple way to adjust for this is to attribute 0.25 runs to the starter and 0.75 to the reliever if a runner was left at first, split it 50/50 if the runner was left on second and attribute .75 runs to the starter and .25 runs to the reliever if the starter allowed the guy to get to third.
A more complicated measure I’ve thought of is to give the starter credit for the expected runs in the inning when he left the game. For example, if a pitcher allows 0 runs through six innings, and is taken out after allowing the bases to get loaded with 2 outs in the seventh, then his ERA for the game would be allowing 0.79 runs through seven innings. (A team is expected to score 0.79 runs if the bases are loaded with 2 outs, according to a Greg Stoll’s calculator.) The starter get credit for 7 whole innings, rather than 6.67, since this would measure what the starter would have been expected to allow if he had finished the seventh. Furthermore, the starter would get credit for allowing 0.79 runs even if the reliever didn’t allow any of the men on base to score. It isn’t the starter’s doing if the reliever strikes out the next batter to end the inning without any damage. Just like it isn’t the starter’s doing if the reliever allows a grand slam.
Anyway, is anybody aware of systems similar to what I suggested above?
Such a system could be valuable in betting. We know ahead of time what starters are going to pitch in a game, but we don’t know what relievers will pitch. Such a system would tell us what pitchers are getting their ERAs harmed by their relievers, and which are getting bailed out by relief.
And, no, I do not have time to look through thousands of MLB play by play game logs to calculate this myself.
