Ok this here is something I came up with, it's just for fun and not a system you'll want to be tailing just yet.
The idea is that some teams put up remarkable numbers concerning if they're an underdog or a favorite. Using www.sportsdatabase.com I collected some data on who's a good dog and who's a bad fav and will now track it to see if this is good info to use. Psychologically, it makes sense that some groups of players feel more comfortable if they have a good pitcher backing them, whereas some will perhaps feel more motivated if they have to support a struggling pitcher. Also, it could be something to do with handling high pressure.
Those are the stats. The system will "play" teams with a high dog rating if they're dogs against other teams with a high dog rating (and therefore low fav rating). Of course it will also play favs with a low dog rating against other teams with a low dog rating who are the underdog. Seperately, I will be tracking a "filtered" system where good away dogs play bad home favs and good home favs play bad away dogs. Odds will be from Pinnacle, with a bet of 2 units for each clear pick (both in bold in the graph), 1 unit for the lesser ones.
The picks it would make 07/07, unfiltered:
Dogs
CLE - 2,43 *2 units
TEX - 2,58 *2 units
CIN - 2,27 *1 unit
Favs
FLA - 1,74 *2 units
DET - 1,50 *1 unit
SEA - 1,73 * 1 unit
Filtered for home/away:
TEX - 2,58 *2 unit
CIN - 2,27 *1 unit
DET - 1,50 *1 unit
SEA - 1,73 * 1 unit
(Indians are only good dogs at home, Giants only bad dogs away, so Marlins are a no play for the filter)
The idea is that some teams put up remarkable numbers concerning if they're an underdog or a favorite. Using www.sportsdatabase.com I collected some data on who's a good dog and who's a bad fav and will now track it to see if this is good info to use. Psychologically, it makes sense that some groups of players feel more comfortable if they have a good pitcher backing them, whereas some will perhaps feel more motivated if they have to support a struggling pitcher. Also, it could be something to do with handling high pressure.
Those are the stats. The system will "play" teams with a high dog rating if they're dogs against other teams with a high dog rating (and therefore low fav rating). Of course it will also play favs with a low dog rating against other teams with a low dog rating who are the underdog. Seperately, I will be tracking a "filtered" system where good away dogs play bad home favs and good home favs play bad away dogs. Odds will be from Pinnacle, with a bet of 2 units for each clear pick (both in bold in the graph), 1 unit for the lesser ones.
The picks it would make 07/07, unfiltered:
Dogs
CLE - 2,43 *2 units
TEX - 2,58 *2 units
CIN - 2,27 *1 unit
Favs
FLA - 1,74 *2 units
DET - 1,50 *1 unit
SEA - 1,73 * 1 unit
Filtered for home/away:
TEX - 2,58 *2 unit
CIN - 2,27 *1 unit
DET - 1,50 *1 unit
SEA - 1,73 * 1 unit
(Indians are only good dogs at home, Giants only bad dogs away, so Marlins are a no play for the filter)
