MLB - Tuesday, 9/4/18

[LT Profits]

4 MLB Plays Tuesday

Reds +135 (5 Dimes)
Cubs / Brewers UNDER 9 +105 (Heritage)
Tigers +148 (5 Dimes)
Padres +160 (5 Dimes)


YTD: 387-408-17, +11.50

[jjgold]

steady

[Sam Odom]

YTD: 387-408-17, +11.50

[5mike5]

Nice job LT

[Hman]

GL with the plays today

[Keepit100]

Just bet Mariners ML-207 and Rays-121 on Heritage 2 game parlay. Of the 2 picks I'm more confident with the Mariners. Might bet $625 on just the Mariners to cover my loss if the parlay loses.
Mariners 5-0 vs Orioles this year
Rays 8-2 vs Toronto this year

[LT Profits]

Just bet Mariners ML-207 and Rays-121 on Heritage 2 game parlay. Of the 2 picks I'm more confident with the Mariners. Might bet $625 on just the Mariners to cover my loss if the parlay loses.
Mariners 5-0 vs Orioles this year
Rays 8-2 vs Toronto this year

I disagree with both of those plays actually, although I am not acting on the opponents as of now. I have the Mariners at "only" 62% (-163) with fairly even pitching macthup. I also have Toronto slightly favored at 51% (-104) despite having Beeks rated slightly better than Borucki.

[Keepit100]

I disagree with both of those plays actually, although I am not acting on the opponents as of now. I have the Mariners at "only" 62% (-163) with fairly even pitching matchup. I also have Toronto slightly favored at 51% (-104) despite having Beeks rated slightly better than Borucki.

Well LeBlanc has a night time era under 3 which is good according to me and Cobb's era is plus 5 so I don't think the pitching matchup is that close. I understand the Rays game issue or concern but 8-2 vs Toronto this year and 11-2 overall last 13 games.

I disagree with your Padres and Reds bet so I guess we will see at the end of the day. I'm guessing you are betting these lines individually.

[krk1030]

Look at Cobb recently. Totally different pitcher

[LT Profits]

Well LeBlanc has a night time era under 3 which is good according to me and Cobb's era is plus 5 so I don't think the pitching matchup is that close. I understand the Rays game issue or concern but 8-2 vs Toronto this year and 11-2 overall last 13 games.

Nothing in this sentence is meaningful really, ERA is not a predictive stat and head to head record means even less. What IS meaningful is Cobb 4.44 xFIP vs. LeBlanc 4.43 xFIP, does not get closer than that. Furthermore, Cobb has a positive ERA - xFIP variance and is thus in the midst of positive regression as evidenced by his improved recent form (prior to last start). On flip side, LeBlanc has negative ERA - xFIP, signaling negative regression on the horizon.

[LT Profits]

2 MLB Additions

6 MLB Plays Tuesday

Reds +135 (5 Dimes)
Cubs / Brewers UNDER 9 +105 (Heritage)
Tigers +148 (5 Dimes)
Tigers / White Sox UNDER 8.5 +105 (Heritage)
Twins / Astros UNDER 7.5 -110 (Heritage)
Padres +160 (5 Dimes)

[krk1030]

How do you grade out the bullpen games like with oakland tonight. With the expanded rosters we likely see guy that have not pitched in the majors.

[LT Profits]

How do you grade out the bullpen games like with oakland tonight. With the expanded rosters we likely see guy that have not pitched in the majors.

I have Hendriks-Montas covering first 5 innings in model, but I am leaving it alone because Melvin did not exactly keep his word Saturday with Hendriks-Mengden.

[LT Profits]

2 More MLB Additions

8 MLB Plays Tuesday

Cardinals / Nationals OVER 9.5 +100 (Heritage)
Reds +135 (5 Dimes)
Red Sox / Braves UNDER 8.5 +105 (Heritage)
Cubs / Brewers UNDER 9 +105 (Heritage)
Tigers +148 (5 Dimes)
Tigers / White Sox UNDER 8.5 +105 (Heritage)
Twins / Astros UNDER 7.5 -110 (Heritage)
Padres +160 (5 Dimes)

[agendaman]

LT this sp today for colorado marquez is the real deal

[krk1030]

Like the Padres. The Arizona offense has just gone away completely.

Got burned yesterday with zona thinking they could hit a gas can like Mitchell.