Just the facts ma'am

danshan11 · 08-25-18, 09:35 AM

what do any of these stats have to do with today's games?

oilcountry99 · 08-25-18, 09:52 AM

Originally posted by danshan11

what do any of these stats have to do with today's games?

Nothing

SsgKen · 08-25-18, 11:05 AM

Play Time:	2018-08-25 18:10
Selection:	Tampa Bay Rays to win
Boston Red Sox Pitcher:	(RIGHT) Rick Porcello
Tampa Bay Rays Pitcher:	(LEFT) Ryan Yarbrough
Pitcher Declaration:	(RIGHT) Rick Porcello / (LEFT) Ryan Yarbrough
Odds:	Point Spread (+1.5) -120
Bet Odds:	-120

The Tampa Rays are 25-3 on the RL as a home dog. They are 5-1 on the RL as Home dogs vs Boston this year.

what do any of these stats have to do with today's games?

The stats are about why the Rays are a good play but it sounds like you do not want them.

danshan11 · 08-25-18, 11:48 AM

but what does their past record as a RL home dog have to do with today's game, that is all I am asking. I am not saying they are not good play, I am just saying what in these stats makes them a good play is all I am asking, thanks

SsgKen · 08-25-18, 01:50 PM

Using past trends to make my picks is the only way I know. Yankees go over the most of any day game team. As I write this, Yanks have 8-2 in the fourth, likely a winner for the over and the game.
Tampa Bay Rays are at home and Run Line is -137 at home and Another stat that has been a winner for decades is who loses the game 1 of a doubleheader, wins the second game the last 19-4 in 2018, unusually high. Now the last time the Orioles hit the second game at +200 but lost.
I hope that this clears it up. I am mostly a football bettor and that is all I use. If team X beats the spread 9-2 in week 11, they will likely continue to cover.
Yesterday the Yanks were dragged into extra innings for the win so Orioles have a change in the very likely event that they lose game 1.

Prediction; Yanks win game 1 but the Orioles +182 win the second.

danshan11 · 08-25-18, 03:52 PM

I know I am banging my head on the wall, but the first and second or third or fourth game back have nothing to do with todays game unless we are talking about injuries or fatigue. A team that wins the first of a doubleheader is as likely to win the second game as the implied win % shown by the closed line.

danshan11 · 08-25-18, 03:59 PM

if streaks meant anything the Yankees would still be winning everyday from 1913 to today.

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http://sportsdatabase.com/mlb/query?output=default&su=1&ou=1&sdql=+p%3AL+and+pp%3AL+and+ppp%3AL++and+pppp%3AL&submit=++S+D+Q+L+%21++

teams that lose 4 in a row win the 5th 46% of the time and the avg line of those games is 112.7 which is 47% implied and subtract the juice and you get roughly 46%. Streaks mean nothing stop betting that, you will lose your juice doing that.

SsgKen · 08-25-18, 04:32 PM

At +182 or last times +200, I only have to win a much smaller win rate than 48% to be a winner.

if streaks meant anything the Yankees would still be winning everyday from 1913 to today.

Every Yankee knows in the best year he will still lose at least 35 games.

danshan11 · 08-25-18, 04:48 PM

Originally posted by SsgKen

At +182 or last times +200, I only have to win a much smaller win rate than 48% to be a winner.

Every Yankee knows in the best year he will still lose at least 35 games.

35% probability and deduct the juice and probably juiced juice such a big dog, you will pay for a 35% chance and probably have at best a 34% chance of winning, but yes you can and will win long term 34% of bets that are at 35% and it has nothing to do with second game of a doubleheader if it did, the line would be Orioles -180

danshan11 · 08-25-18, 04:49 PM

Originally posted by SsgKen

At +182 or last times +200, I only have to win a much smaller win rate than 48% to be a winner.

Every Yankee knows in the best year he will still lose at least 35 games.

how could that be possible if streaks mean anything?

SportsSharingun · 08-27-18, 01:18 PM

Originally posted by danshan11

how could that be possible if streaks mean anything?

This.

Streaks (and stats) don't tell you context. There's probably a more important reason worth looking into. Frequently on double headers teams play prospects so as to avoid tiring out their pitchers.

Why a team has a stat/streak is more important than the fact they have it.

And in baseball in particular, its important to acknowledge luck.

SsgKen · 08-27-18, 01:44 PM

If we have a coin flip, dice roll, white and black balls in a jar, or pick one card whatever happened last means nothing. MLB is none of those things. It is more like a jar with white, black, and red balls and with every pitch, another ball comes out of the jar. There are only so many pitchers, pinch runners, etc.
Trends are almost all of how I play Notice the Rays won nicely; Trend made me some money.

Just the facts ma'am

The Rockies are 26-3 in the last 29 starts made by Jon Gray, German Marquez and Kyle Freeland.

COLORADO ROCKIES
-142

J Gray - must start vs / Action
Risking: $1,420.00 To win: $1,000.00

Risk: 500.00 - Win: 650.00 WIN
MLB - [918] Tampa Bay Rays +130( ACTION )WIN
Score: Boston Red Sox(1) - Tampa Bay Rays(5)
Game start 08/25/2018 05:20 PM

$2,000.00
$22,887.76

Risk: 2,480.00 - Win: 2,000.00WIN
MLB - [966] Tampa Bay Rays -124( ACTION /B Snell - L )WIN
Score: Boston Red Sox(1) - Tampa Bay Rays(9)
Game start 08/26/2018 12:20 PM

SportsSharingun · 08-27-18, 02:12 PM

Gray, Marquez, Freeland and Snell are upper echelon/elite pitchers especially when you take into play park factors for the COL pitchers. Them winning games isn't surprising.

(edit: admittedly, I don't think Freeland was playing that well a month+ ago)

If you only went by trends you would have also picked Severino (who had won the last 10 at home) against Brad Keller and lost the biggest upset of the year. That methodology would have ignored that everyone was hitting Severino's pitches.

I'm not saying don't look at trends, I personally use trends as indicators for things I should take a closer look at.

I just think you should look at the context behind them, and I think that could help you make an extra buck or thousand.

danshan11 · 08-27-18, 06:21 PM

Originally posted by SsgKen

If we have a coin flip, dice roll, white and black balls in a jar, or pick one card whatever happened last means nothing. MLB is none of those things. It is more like a jar with white, black, and red balls and with every pitch, another ball comes out of the jar. There are only so many pitchers, pinch runners, etc.
Trends are almost all of how I play Notice the Rays won nicely; Trend made me some money.

Just the facts ma'am

The Rockies are 26-3 in the last 29 starts made by Jon Gray, German Marquez and Kyle Freeland.

COLORADO ROCKIES
-142

J Gray - must start vs / Action
Risking: $1,420.00 To win: $1,000.00

Risk: 500.00 - Win: 650.00 WIN
MLB - [918] Tampa Bay Rays +130( ACTION )WIN
Score: Boston Red Sox(1) - Tampa Bay Rays(5)
Game start 08/25/2018 05:20 PM

$2,000.00
$22,887.76

Risk: 2,480.00 - Win: 2,000.00WIN
MLB - [966] Tampa Bay Rays -124( ACTION /B Snell - L )WIN
Score: Boston Red Sox(1) - Tampa Bay Rays(9)
Game start 08/26/2018 12:20 PM

Congrats on the win and I apologize if I gave you the impression, I was down playing your bet but you paid for a 55.36% say 54.36 take out vig and it closed as a 53.49% chance so say 52.49% take out vig.

so you will actually win 524.9 times and you paid to win 543.6 times, I am sure how you can see that is a long term LOSER! it happens to all of us but if it happens more than 50% of the time counting margin, you will lose, trend or not!

SsgKen · 08-28-18, 05:30 AM

In the stock or commodities markets the phrase "the trend is your friend" is common knowledge and words to live by. 26-3 turns into 26-4.

I have overextended my time here and I will finish my post about what to do with a credit balance over $20,000 in oddsmaker if they ever send me a check.

COLORADO ROCKIES
-142

J Gray - must start vs / Action
Risking: $1,420.00 To win: $1,000.00

SsgKen · 12-07-18, 01:50 PM

I have received 2 checks and 1 debit card totaling $6000 now. Les $55 fee.

12/07/2018

DEPOSIT

$1,945.00