MLB Leans Monday 6/29

[peterpan19]

ok guys...you know it I love the Duke and thats why I will play him today again...

Cubs cant hit or do anything right now...Duke has a 3.03 ERA lifetime (1.37 WHIP) against the Cubs and he pitched 7 great Innings agains them this year, only allowing 2 runs

PIT -110 big (3x)

GL

[cocknocker]

Wow! The Cubs haven't won a game by 2 runs in 7 games straight. Today, they bust out the whoopin' sticks after being embarrassed at Comiskey over the weekend. The truth is that Harden is being had at an unbelieveable price. I'm gonna follow the steam on this one and take the Cubbos as they went from +100 to -107/-103 favorite with the 78% of bettors on them. Not that it's of any consolation. The Cubs ALWAYS are the majority on the consensus, lol! They will sweep the Pirates or atthe least win 2 of the games so get ready.

Cubs-107

You just can't bring Halladay back against a team that is hitting the ball as well as the Rays are. The Jays for their part aren't hitting as well as they have most of the season (.229 avg with .396 slugging avg over their last 3 games) I think that there are better teams to bring him back against than this one. The consensus numbers are close (51 to 49% for the Rays) but the movement sure ain't. The line for this game started out at Blue Birds-185/+177. The number is now Blue Birds -170/+155. Rays win in a mild upset tonight.


Rays+170 (Played it last night)

[Panekkkk]

Wow! The Cubs haven't won a game by 2 runs in 7 games straight. Today, they bust out the whoopin' sticks after being embarrassed at Comiskey over the weekend. The truth is that Harden is being had at an unbelieveable price. I'm gonna follow the steam on this one and take the Cubbos as they went from +100 to -107/-103 favorite with the 78% of bettors on them. Not that it's of any consolation. The Cubs ALWAYS are the majority on the consensus, lol! They will sweep the Pirates or atthe least win 2 of the games so get ready.

Cubs-107

You just can't bring Halladay back against a team that is hitting the ball as well as the Rays are. The Jays for their part aren't hitting as well as they have most of the season (.229 avg with .396 slugging avg over their last 3 games) I think that there are better teams to bring him back against than this one. The consensus numbers are close (51 to 49% for the Rays) but the movement sure ain't. The line for this game started out at Blue Birds-185/+177. The number is now Blue Birds -170/+155. Rays win in a mild upset tonight.


Rays+170 (Played it last night)

Definite value in the Rays, only thing scaring me off is their bullpen. Both J.P. Howell and Chad Bradford will be unavailable for this game. Let's not kid who Halladay is as well. He had a very minor groin tweak. There was no injury to his arm and I can't see it affecting his game whatsoever.

Bullpen usage:

http://www.dailybaseballdata.com/cgi-bin/bullpen.pl#p184

[TodaysAction]

ok guys...you know it I love the Duke and thats why I will play him today again...

Cubs cant hit or do anything right now...Duke has a 3.03 ERA lifetime (1.37 WHIP) against the Cubs and he pitched 7 great Innings agains them this year, only allowing 2 runs

PIT -110 big (3x)

GL

Would not the under be a good option as well (first half)?

[thegenix]

Do you guys know if BetJam has score in first inning prop bets?

[fifawcs]

I love pit today. Let's cash it

[peterpan19]

Would not the under be a good option as well (first half)?

well... Pirates are hitting pretty good right now and Harden struggled a bit over his last 3 starts with 5+ ERA... I think the Pirates can slap him for 3 runs in the first 5 and I do believe they can get a run of Zach too... so 4 runs total...which would be a push... so I stay away...
normally I would say take the Pirates for the first 5 Innings only but considering that their pen has a sub 1 WHIP in his last 3 games and that the Cubs only have avg. of .208 and slg only .307... well I dont think they can blow a lead today after the first 5 Innings... in fact I might even think that the Pirates can come back if behind after 5 Innings... Cubs pen has a 2.346 Whip over his last 3 and the Pirates are hitting very well right now (.264 avg, .462 slg)...

that said I really like the Pirates today... even if I have to go against ck and the Cubs today...

GL

[djpremier36]

These are my trio of games:

PIT +100

CWS -105

SF -120

GL

[Panekkkk]

83% of bettors on the Dodgers and the line has moved from -135 (open) Dodgers to -110. Huge RLM. Colorado also top cash generators as road dogs between +100 and +115 (http://sportsdatabase.com/mlb.py/que...D2009+and+team).
Rockies +103


Similarly, huuuge value with the Angels at +117 looking at Angels on the road in that line range vs. Rangers at home in that line range. Rangers aren't hitting and Angels are. While Padilla has been hot, Texas batters will be looking at a rookie pitcher who has pitched two great outings so far.

http://sportsdatabase.com/mlb.py/query?text=site%3Daway+and+line%3E%3D115+and+line%3C%3D130+and+season%3D2009+and+team

http://sportsdatabase.com/mlb.py/query?text=site%3Dhome+and+line%3C%3D-125+and+line%3E%3D-140+and+season%3D2009+and+team

Angels +119


Also liking the CWS.

[wangichu]

love the rays and rockies...

Holy reverse line movement batman!
tampa runs in with a lot of momentum having swept the marlins and really turned their season around over the last month, while the blue jays come in off two straight losses to the phils. Tampa's sticks are on fire and halladay will be a little rusty and they will have him on a much tighter leash than he's used to.

TB ML (2 units)

the only thing that scares me here is the dodgers propensity to win in the 9th, but i can't factor that in with such reverse line movement to bank on and plus money to win. That said rockies are high off another sweep on the road while the dodgers are getting a little sluggish waiting for manny to come back, dropping the last 2 of their 3 game homeset to the mariners. Ubaldo is pitching well, while randy has been struggling lately.

not to mention the fact that the rockies have to be a little motivated for vengance after getting swept by the blue crew last time they met in colorado.

COL ML (3 unit play for me)

i also like a couple games at one unit (all dogs with good supportive line movement), but i will probably only keep two of them:

WAS ML
STL ML
NYM ML
LAA ML

I think i'll wind up with the last two because 1 is playing a hot pitcher, the other is playing a hot team. The top two are fading aces and that might be a little risky despite the line movement and momentum to support them.

[cocknocker]

Definite value in the Rays, only thing scaring me off is their bullpen. Both J.P. Howell and Chad Bradford will be unavailable for this game. Let's not kid who Halladay is as well. He had a very minor groin tweak. There was no injury to his arm and I can't see it affecting his game whatsoever.

Bullpen usage:
http://www.dailybaseballdata.com/cgi...ullpen.pl#p184

When Harden is on, the bullpen is irrelevant. Today he will be on his game, the bts will come to life and get a lead and the Cubbos will only have to use the bullpen sparingly.

[The_Kid]

Similarly, huuuge value with the Angels at +117 looking at Angels on the road in that line range vs. Rangers at home in that line range. Rangers aren't hitting and Angels are. While Padilla has been hot, Texas batters will be looking at a rookie pitcher who has pitched two great outings so far.
Angels +119

Vlad kills Texas when he plays against them and the Angels gain another bat in their lineup that is just scorching the ball now. Padilla has not pitched that great at home this year while O'Sullivan has pitched two pretty good game since being called up. Texas bats have not been able to hit in the past two games and now they get to face a pitcher they have never seen.

[wangichu]

When Harden is on, the bullpen is irrelevant. Today he will be on his game, the bts will come to life and get a lead and the Cubbos will only have to use the bullpen sparingly.

I know as well as you how nasty harden can be and i like your play given the cubs history against duke, but i can't agree with the assessment that the cubs pen will be irrelevant this game. Harden has gone more than 6 innings only once this year, actually going an average of just over 5 and a third innings, so unless the cubs pound duke early (which could very well happen), the bullpen will almost certainly be an issue here. That as well as dukes record as a home dog have me off this game, but good luck.

[wangichu]

by the way... the series price in the angels/rangers series is looking kinda sexy with the angels at +105. I'm gonna get me some.

[DeeWizzle]

Is Vlad gonna be in the lineup today? I know he was out vs Arizona because of no Dh but they also said he had an injured pectoral muscle.

[cap10]

i have resigned myself;; avoid all cubs games;; money burners

sweet lou better turn this around or he is out the door soon

[The_Kid]

Is Vlad gonna be in the lineup today? I know he was out vs Arizona because of no Dh but they also said he had an injured pectoral muscle.

This is from Yahoo Sports:

Jun 26 DH Vladimir Guerrero has not progressed far enough in his throwing program to play the outfield this weekend and will be limited to pinch-hitting duty in the interleague series at a National League park. Guerrero could be ready to play the outfield in "the next couple weeks," according to Angels manager Mike Scioscia. Guerrero was 3-for-3 as a pinch-hitter last week in San Francisco. He popped out Friday night against the Diamondbacks.

My guess is he'll likely be the DH. More info should be available later as gametime approaches.

[DeeWizzle]

Thanx Kid

[Panekkkk]

This is from Yahoo Sports:

Jun 26 DH Vladimir Guerrero has not progressed far enough in his throwing program to play the outfield this weekend and will be limited to pinch-hitting duty in the interleague series at a National League park. Guerrero could be ready to play the outfield in "the next couple weeks," according to Angels manager Mike Scioscia. Guerrero was 3-for-3 as a pinch-hitter last week in San Francisco. He popped out Friday night against the Diamondbacks.

My guess is he'll likely be the DH. More info should be available later as gametime approaches.

Vladdy will probably hit DL but who cares, he has 2 HR and 13 RBI so far this season. He is a non-factor to the Angel's success lately so I wouldn't factor him into the decision. With that being said, he hit his 2nd HR a few days ago so maybe he's heating up

[JumpoffJoeBeezy]

I'm trying to figure out why this White Sox -106 is so low.. Something is up..

[ragiche]

Booked plays:

Laa ML (2x)

Mil RL (2x)

Min RL (2x)

Palehose PK (2x)

Sfo RL (2x)

Col ML (5x)

GL everybody.

[Dexter]

Monday 6/29-

(5x) Marlins -1.5/+110 (A3) *this would be much larger if i wasn't running so bad

(1x) Cards +1.5/-140 (A2)

(2x) Astros - 150 - oswalt seems to be turning his season around with an 3.00/1.42 last 3 and a career 2.97/1.19 vs sd. the stros are 10-2 in games hes started vs the padres. greer has a 6.62/1.52 in his last 3

(3x) Whitesox -120 (A3)

[jellobiafra]

Ahhhh...fellas,

Finishing off a bottle of Quintessa.... just lit up a fat Davidoff. Got money spread out everywhere tonight. What was that commercial back in the day... "it doesn't get in better than this". Pabst Blue Ribbon maybe?

Well I've got news for those rednecks.... it does get quite a bit better than that.

Good luck guys....life is good.

Life is good.

[Dexter]

Ahhhh...fellas,

Finishing off a bottle of Quintessa.... just lit up a fat Davidoff. Got money spread out everywhere tonight. What was that commercial back in the day... "it doesn't get in better than this". Pabst Blue Ribbon maybe?

Well I've got news for those rednecks.... it does get quite a bit better than that.

Good luck guys....life is good.

Life is good.

drinking on a monday - nice....i miss those days

[Flight]

You should do 1 drink for every 1 play (or 1 unit) you have out on the board. Kinda like a drinking game, if you want to gamble you gotta pay the juice and drink the juice.

[jellobiafra]

I drink a little bit pretty much every night. Up at 6:00am on weekdays though, so it's usually 3 or 4 beers or on rare occassions a bottle of wine...and no cheap shit. I'm a former fine dining waiter so I know my wine and I'm a total snob.

Maybe not the healthiest lifestyle.... but if you'd have seen my rockstar ways a couple years ago. Eesh. Makes me shudder. Restaurant days. Those of you who know the biz know the life.


Hey, keep an eye on the line for the PHI/ATL game for WED. Projected starters are Hamels v Jurjjens. The Braves won't score more than 2 runs tops. Hamels completely owns them. I'm planning on placing my biggest wager of the year on the under if that line is released at 8 or above. There will not be more than 5 runs scored in that game.

[Flight]

Harden keeps finding ways out of some pretty serious jams. If only the Cubs' bats would just get some heat on them...

[Flight]

on rare occassions a bottle of wine

Call me a fag, but I drink wine on weekdays too. Keeps me from getting shitfaced, and I enjoy it while watching Sopranos or Rescue Me.

Hey, keep an eye on the line for the PHI/ATL game for WED. Projected starters are Hamels v Jurjjens. I'm planning on placing my biggest wager of the year on the under if that line is released at 8 or above. There will not be more than 4 runs scored in that game. LLLLL.....likely outcome.

Why is it the biggest wager? Under sounds solid but maybe just a 2 or 3-star play for me. I've scared myself from laying big wood at all until after the All Star break. Too many games lost or won in the 9th (thank you Tigers...)

[jellobiafra]

Well..... just because I feel confident in that fact that I know my team (Braves). And I know when I see Hamels as the opposing starter that it is a guaranteed shutdown affair. Not to mention that I see my team as having a ridiculously impotent lineup. Don't get me started on this.

And I have absolute faith in Jair Jurjjens. He and Tommy Hanson are the best 1-2 pitchers under 24 in the majors. JJ is the best kept secret in the league. If this guy was pitching for the Yankees or Red Sox (getting the run support he would be receiving from those lineups) he would be a household name. He just pounds the strikezone and lets batters get themselves out. I love the kid and at 23 years old he pitches like he's 35. I trust him to give a quality start about as much as anyone in baseball already.

All that along with the Braves pathetic offense and Hamels' domination of them.... the under 8 is as close as you are going to get to free money on a baseball bet, imo. I'll bet it if the line is released at 7.5 or even 7....but only as a big bet. 8 or above and it's Katie bar the door.

[jellobiafra]

Just to clarify the reason I'm bringing up a game that's 2 days away... it's just to give people a head's up to watch for the line when it's released. I have a feeling they might slip up and open it at 8... and it will get hammered down to 7.5 in about 2 hours. So just keep an eye on the opener and pound it if it's over 7.5 because it won't stay there.

[jellobiafra]

This thread is dead!


Anybody else on HOU, COL and DET?

I am.

[Dexter]

olsen got up for his old team....gotta get to that nats pen

[spal2811]

Anybody else on HOU, COL and DET?

leaning DET havent decided if im gonna play it.......also on COL/LAD over 8.5 i know your a under expert but i would like to hear your imput on that one

[jellobiafra]

leaning DET havent decided if im gonna play it.......also on COL/LAD over 8.5 i know your a under expert but i would like to hear your imput on that one

8.5 seems pretty sharp to me. Chavez is a pitcher's park. Here's the way I see it playing out... Jiminez is overpowering. Wolf gets rocked. I think maybe COL 7 LAD 3.... but I really don't have a strong opinion on the total. I just think Jiminez will perform better vs LAD bats than vise versa.

Good luck.

[jellobiafra]

I just went and added 2/3 unit on all 3 (COL, HOU, DET) -1.5 run line. Early games have played out well for me and I'm going for the kill in the nightcaps.