MLB - Saturday, 7/21/18

[LT Profits]

5 MLB Plays Saturday

Orioles +169 (Heritage)
Mets +208 (5 Dimes)
Tigers +1.5 -105 (Heritage)
Royals +122 (Bookmaker)
White Sox +1.5 +100 (Heritage)


YTD: 276-285-13, +15.61

[MontrealCrw]

O's

[hit_me90]

LT, Total on yanks and mets game please

[LT Profits]

LT, Total on yanks and mets game please

9.8

Over would be a consideration if you can find a 9 -105ish. but best I see right now is -115

[rookieclapper]

Can I ask why the O’s today?

[LT Profits]

Can I ask why the O’s today?

Not enough separation between the starters to justify the big odds, I send up with Toronto 58% (-138).

For future reference, both starters are candidates for good regression. Each have an xFIP nearly 2 full runs lower than ERA.

[Crusherrr]

Went with Mets ML Yesterday when I saw you liked them +1.5 and I'm going with them today. I got them at +226 though. Great price. I think Mets may get out to another early lead today. GL LT

[snider]

LT do you look much at the SiEra? Matz is dominant over this pinstriper

[snider]

Not enough separation between the starters to justify the big odds, I send up with Toronto 58% (-138).

For future reference, both starters are candidates for good regression. Each have an xFIP nearly 2 full runs lower than ERA.

then the oddsmaker is wise and didnt allow value to the Total? regress in this case means improve, i think?!

[LT Profits]

then the oddsmaker is wise and didnt allow value to the Total? regress in this case means improve, i think?!

Total seems tight as I get 8.8. And yes, I did say "good" regression.

[LT Profits]

LT do you look much at the SiEra? Matz is dominant over this pinstriper

I look at it occasionally sure, but the components of my model are more in line with the components of xFIP.

[LT Profits]

1 MLB Addition

6 MLB Plays Saturday

Orioles +169 (Heritage)
Mets +208 (5 Dimes)
Tigers +1.5 -105 (Heritage)
Cardinals +131 (Game #2) (Heritage)
Royals +122 (Bookmaker)
White Sox +1.5 +100 (Heritage)

[tripled83]

Do you know what your record is on betting overs vs unders?

[LT Profits]

Another MLB Addition

7 MLB Plays Saturday

Orioles +169 (Heritage)
Mets +208 (5 Dimes)
Tigers +1.5 -105 (Heritage)
Pirates / Reds UNDER 9 +100 (Heritage)
Cardinals +131 (Game #2) (Heritage)
Royals +122 (Bookmaker)
White Sox +1.5 +100 (Heritage)

[LT Profits]

Do you know what your record is on betting overs vs unders?

Excluding Pushes:

OVER: 34-25, +7.15
UNDER: 86-77, +4.85
Total: 120-102, +12.00

[44 Mag]

Isn't it odd how overs dominate, by your unit count.......LOL.