How do you see the pitching matchup/side for Nats/Bucs? Jay's/Braves?
Any value on Ms or Tigers?
Thanks in advance
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LT Profits
SBR Aristocracy
10-27-06
90963
#4
Originally posted by cjpenn3
Few questions for you... Why Marlins?
How do you see the pitching matchup/side for Nats/Bucs? Jay's/Braves?
Any value on Ms or Tigers?
Thanks in advance
I only have Milwaukee 53% (-113), Lopez is highly regarded, I debuted him right at average. Chacin I have about 10% below average, he is a prime regression candidate with a 3.63 ERA vs. 4.65 xFIP
I have Washington 54% (-117) despite having Musgrove above average and Hellickson below average. Nats have big bullpen edge and they are about 5% better in offensive splits.
Toronto is close to being a play for me, I only get Atlanta 52% (-108). Stroman right around average, Teheran about 15% below average. Bullpen favors Braves though by about 8%.
I don't like Seattle as of now, I get Angels 59% (-144). Not a fan of Tigers either, I get Rays 61% (-156) assuming Stanek-Yarbrough combo.
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RavensFan2k3
SBR Posting Legend
08-18-12
17378
#5
Thanks for all the insight LT. How do you rate the two pitchers in the Twins/Royals game? And what % do you get for the game?
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LT Profits
SBR Aristocracy
10-27-06
90963
#6
Originally posted by RavensFan2k3
Thanks for all the insight LT. How do you rate the two pitchers in the Twins/Royals game? And what % do you get for the game?
Both starters are bad, Slegers about 15% below average, Kennedy about 20% below. I still get Minnesota a large 63% (-170) though, Twins have huge edges in bullpen and offense.
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jimminn
SBR MVP
04-23-11
1176
#7
Brewers fan here and I don't know why you always bet against them . They are a pretty good team. Always read your picks and appreciate your posts.
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hubie69
SBR Hall of Famer
09-16-10
7329
#8
Lt it's great to see somebody on here talking about xFIP. GL today, I'm on the brewers side today 1st 5, but GL
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LT Profits
SBR Aristocracy
10-27-06
90963
#9
Originally posted by jimminn
Brewers fan here and I don't know why you always bet against them . They are a pretty good team. Always read your picks and appreciate your posts.
LT any thought on the over under in AZ Colorado game?
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deary626
SBR Wise Guy
04-24-16
667
#17
LT any thought on the over under in AZ Colorado game?
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LT Profits
SBR Aristocracy
10-27-06
90963
#18
Originally posted by deary626
LT any thought on the over under in AZ Colorado game?
Model has exactly 11.0, so no.
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cjpenn3
SBR Rookie
04-09-18
33
#19
What total do you get for tigers Ray's?
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Blackballer
SBR MVP
07-12-14
1117
#20
Originally posted by LT Profits
I only have Milwaukee 53% (-113), Lopez is highly regarded, I debuted him right at average. Chacin I have about 10% below average, he is a prime regression candidate with a 3.63 ERA vs. 4.65 xFIP
I have Washington 54% (-117) despite having Musgrove above average and Hellickson below average. Nats have big bullpen edge and they are about 5% better in offensive splits.
Toronto is close to being a play for me, I only get Atlanta 52% (-108). Stroman right around average, Teheran about 15% below average. Bullpen favors Braves though by about 8%.
I don't like Seattle as of now, I get Angels 59% (-144). Not a fan of Tigers either, I get Rays 61% (-156) assuming Stanek-Yarbrough combo.
Are the percentages you write and use the implied probability you derive from the moneyline odds or your calculated probability?
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Blackballer
SBR MVP
07-12-14
1117
#21
Originally posted by LT Profits
ytd: 258-266-13, +16.29
Numbers never lie, except the phone numbers from some women
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ikid2groove415
SBR Posting Legend
01-08-18
11981
#22
Originally posted by 44 Mag
Stop sucking simp
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ikid2groove415
SBR Posting Legend
01-08-18
11981
#23
Hey i would take the men by his word -
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LT Profits
SBR Aristocracy
10-27-06
90963
#24
Originally posted by Blackballer
Are the percentages you write and use the implied probability you derive from the moneyline odds or your calculated probability?
Model odds
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LT Profits
SBR Aristocracy
10-27-06
90963
#25
Originally posted by cjpenn3
What total do you get for tigers Ray's?
7.8, again assuming Rays are going Stanek-Yarbrough
Comment
LT Profits
SBR Aristocracy
10-27-06
90963
#26
1 MLB Addition
3 MLB Plays Tuesday
Marlins +130 (5 Dimes)
Brewers / Marlins UNDER 8 -110 (Heritage) Blue Jays +118 (Heritage)
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44 Mag
BARRELED IN @ SBR!
10-14-13
34490
#27
Originally posted by ikid2groove415
Stop sucking simp
Ass Clown...............
Comment
Blackballer
SBR MVP
07-12-14
1117
#28
Originally posted by LT Profits
3 MLB Plays Tuesday
Marlins +130 (5 Dimes)
Brewers / Marlins UNDER 8 -110 (Heritage) Blue Jays +118 (Heritage)
You eventually decided to go with Toronto. You see the Blue Jays having the pitching edge toinght in this matchup? Stroman is a work in progress to me after his injury, is he really a reliable pitcher to you?
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LT Profits
SBR Aristocracy
10-27-06
90963
#29
Originally posted by Blackballer
You eventually decided to go with Toronto. You see the Blue Jays having the pitching edge toinght in this matchup? Stroman is a work in progress to me after his injury, is he really a reliable pitcher to you?
Already mentioned Toronto starting pitching edge in earlier post, and why would Stroman be work-in-progress? He has nice sized track record plus he has had two good starts vs. one bad start since coming off DL, so injury not a concern.