MLB - Monday, 6/11/18

[LT Profits]

4 MLB Plays Monday

Orioles +111 (Heritage)
Indians / White Sox UNDER 9 -105 (Heritage)
Padres +174 (Heritage)
Padres / Cardinals UNDER 8 +100 (Heritage)


YTD: 195-201-13, +13.24

[RavensFan2k3]

Was the Orioles play based on Redsoz putting out Rodriguez or Wright?

[LT Profits]

Was the Orioles play based on Redsoz putting out Rodriguez or Wright?

I have had Wright listed all along, was there a change I am unaware of?

[LT Profits]

1 MLB Addition

5 MLB Plays Monday

Orioles +111 (Heritage)
Marlins +147 (Heritage)
Indians / White Sox UNDER 9 -105 (Heritage)
Padres +174 (Heritage)
Padres / Cardinals UNDER 8 +100 (Heritage)

[chasincoin954]

how can anyone back the O's? especially against the redsox..

[RavensFan2k3]

I have had Wright listed all along, was there a change I am unaware of?

When I was handicapping games last night I saw Rodriguez, but this morning I see Wright...but Don’t see anything about a change. Let’s go O’s

[KDF500]

Marlins pick based on Chen’s performance at home??

[RavensFan2k3]

How do you rate the two pitchers in the Boston/Baltimore game?

[JIBBBY]

how can anyone back the O's? especially against the redsox..

My thoughts exactly.. Red Sox have dominated the O's recently as well.. I'm surprised the odds are close to even as well for this game..

Granted the Red Sox are not playing their best ball right now they should still handle these O's today and be heavily favored IMO...

It's a square bet though, odds are suspicious, something could give and LT Profits could have the last laugh on us all.. Still my money is on the Red Sox today. O's coming off a long road trip, back home now, came in late last night flying back from Toronto - but that just means the players probably ate like kings, banged their gf's and wives and probably will be weak in the legs and a little groggy today..

Boston coming off a loss should be hungry to get this win today going on the road now.... Redsox not a bad road team either at 21-11 on the year.. O's at just 10-18 at home are simply not that impressive..

$216.00

$200.00

Pending

6/11/18 7:05pm MLB Baseball 909 Boston Red Sox -108* vs Baltimore Orioles (S Wright - R must Start D Bundy - R must Start)

[jimmycage]

the players only bang there supermodel wag's during flights from other countries?

[LT Profits]

how can anyone back the O's? especially against the redsox..

How do you rate the two pitchers in the Boston/Baltimore game?

My thoughts exactly.. Red Sox have dominated the O's recently as well.. I'm surprised the odds are close to even as well for this game..

Granted the Red Sox are not playing their best ball right now they should still handle these O's today and be heavily favored IMO...

It's a square bet though, odds are suspicious, something could give and LT Profits could have the last laugh on us all.. Still my money is on the Red Sox today. O's coming off a long road trip, back home now, came in late last night flying back from Toronto - but that just means the players probably ate like kings, banged their gf's and wives and probably will be weak in the legs and a little groggy today..

Boston coming off a loss should be hungry to get this win today going on the road now.... Redsox not a bad road team either at 21-11 on the year.. O's at just 10-18 at home are simply not that impressive..

$216.00

$200.00

Pending

6/11/18 7:05pm MLB Baseball 909 Boston Red Sox -108* vs Baltimore Orioles (S Wright - R must Start D Bundy - R must Start)

This does not happen very often but the Orioles have the significant pitching edge tonight, so much so that I actually have Baltimore favored at 54% (-117). I have Bundy about 10% above average and Wright as one of the worst starters in the league at about 20% below average. Plus the O's getting Zach Britton back does not hurt.

[LT Profits]

Marlins pick based on Chen’s performance at home??

Meh, not really. more to do with Giants edges not being that big to merit this price on the road, I get Giants 56% (-127).

[Eric22174]

N/A

[pilebuck13]

T, what did you get for a total in the Cubs Milwaukee match up? Seems a little high to me?

[LT Profits]

T, what did you get for a total in the Cubs Milwaukee match up? Seems a little high to me?

8.3

[jjgold]

LT are we meeting this week?

[44 Mag]

LT, thoughts on the AZ game??? Over under & pitching advantage???? I like AZ in this spot over Pitt.......

[JIBBBY]

This does not happen very often but the Orioles have the significant pitching edge tonight, so much so that I actually have Baltimore favored at 54% (-117). I have Bundy about 10% above average and Wright as one of the worst starters in the league at about 20% below average. Plus the O's getting Zach Britton back does not hurt.

Wright has a life time ERA of 3.80...Has Pitched well on the road this year so far for the few innings he's pitched in games.. His last outing was a 7 inning shut out against Detroit.. He's 2-0 this year so far with an ERA of just 1.57.. I wouldn't call him the worst starting pitcher in the league..

The numbers don't lie... https://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/9370/

[44 Mag]

Wright has a life time ERA of 3.80...Has Pitched well on the road this year so far for the few innings he's pitched in games.. His last outing was a 7 inning shut out against Detroit.. He's 2-0 this year so far with an ERA of just 1.57.. I wouldn't call him the worst starting pitcher in the league..

The numbers don't lie... https://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/9370/

It's the old: If the knuckler works he's good, if not, it's batting practice......

[JIBBBY]

It's the old: If the knuckler works he's good, if not, it's batting practice......

That is true..

[RavensFan2k3]

Manny Machado is out

[chasincoin954]

pound the soxxxx

[LT Profits]

Wright has a life time ERA of 3.80...Has Pitched well on the road this year so far for the few innings he's pitched in games.. His last outing was a 7 inning shut out against Detroit.. He's 2-0 this year so far with an ERA of just 1.57.. I wouldn't call him the worst starting pitcher in the league..

The numbers don't lie... https://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/9370/

Model heavily favors guys with good K/BB ratios, Wright has always been lacking in that area. He has also been insanely lucky this year with a .185 BABIP allowed and an 88.5% strand rate, helping lead to a 4.40 xFIP. His xFIP vs. ERA variance would probably be the biggest in baseball if he had enough innings to qualify.

[chasincoin954]

LT does your model still favor the O's with betts in and machado out?

[LT Profits]

Arizona with pitching edge but line seems pretty tight as I get D-Backs 60% (-150) and 7.3.

FYI. roof is closed.

[LT Profits]

LT does your model still favor the O's with betts in and machado out?

Betts has been out for a while. I did have Machado in, but after taking him out I still get O's 52% (-108) so my +111 is still fine.

[JIBBBY]

Model heavily favors guys with good K/BB ratios, Wright has always been lacking in that area. He has also been insanely lucky this year with a .185 BABIP allowed and an 88.5% strand rate, helping lead to a 4.40 xFIP. His xFIP vs. ERA variance would probably be the biggest in baseball if he had enough innings to qualify.

There is a fine line between being lucky and actually being just good.. Subjective LT... He's been good this year that's all I know.. Sometimes it's just good not to over think it and just play the guy and team that has been pretty good and winning games.. It's all about what have you done for me lately in sports.. Baseball too..

Wright did pitch a 3 hit 7 inning shut out last game against the Tigers..https://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/detroit...sox-380605102/

His Knuckler was working.. I think it carries over to this game... We'll see?

[Regul8er]

+13 units........well done sir, nice little scoop!

[KDF500]

Great work LT

i dont care dont @ me!

[LT Profits]

There is a fine line between being lucky and actually being just good.. Subjective LT... He's been good this year that's all I know.. Sometimes it's just good not to over think it and just play the guy and team that has been pretty good and winning games.. It's all about what have you done for me lately in sports.. Baseball too..

Wright did pitch a 3 hit 7 inning shut out last game against the Tigers..https://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/detroit...sox-380605102/

His Knuckler was working.. I think it carries over to this game... We'll see?

I am not using "lucky" in the normal sense, I meant in the statistical sense as BABIP and strand rate are both luck stats. But most telling is the xFIP, that foretells negative regression coming up.

[LT Profits]

Plus I forgot to mention that Wright's BABIP allowed is magnified by his low strikeout rate, meaning that most batters he faces put the ball in play. Thus his regression would theoretically be worse than that of a strikeout pitcher as the BABIP normalizes.

[LT Profits]

For comparative purposes, MLB average strand rate is usually around 72% and average BABIP is usually around .295

[chasincoin954]

Betts has been out for a while. I did have Machado in, but after taking him out I still get O's 52% (-108) so my +111 is still fine.

lmao so with betts in and machado out your model still has O's a fav lol... you might need to tweak your model imo

[LT Profits]

lmao so with betts in and machado out your model still has O's a fav lol... you might need to tweak your model imo

Oh Mookie is IN. I thought you said they were both out, which is why I commented Betts has been out for a while, I guess BoSox activated him today.

I update default lineups every night so I would have caught it in time fro tomorrow's games, let me update Boston today and see what happens. Give me a few minutes.

[LT Profits]

lmao so with betts in and machado out your model still has O's a fav lol... you might need to tweak your model imo

Yes, Baltimore still favored slightly at 51% (-104).

So to summarize. no Machado drops Baltimore by 2% and adding Betts raises Boston by 1%. Smaller effect because previous Benintendi-Bogarts batting 1-2 was still fine.

Ultimately this line is still all about the pitching matchup.