post my lines up for the MLB BEFORE lines come out

[Waterstpub87]

4/19 Home teams

DET	115
SEA	400
NYY	-180
PHI	-115
ATL	-150
MIL	-235
ARI	115
LAA	180

Teams	Total
BALDET	9.5
HOUSEA	9.5
TORNYY	9
PITPHI	6.5
NYMATL	8.5
MIAMIL	8.5
SFARI	8
BOSLAA	9.5

[danshan11]

I need about an hour undoing some of that mess of a modification yesterday LOL

[danshan11]

4/19	Jake Arrieta	Phillies	-130	8.5
4/19	Anibal Sanchez	Braves	-117	9
4/19	Chase Anderson	Brewers	-198	9
4/19	Zack Greinke	Diamondbacks	-212	8
4/19	Jordan Zimmermann	Tigers	148	8.5
4/19	Marco Gonzales	Mariners	171	8.5
4/19	CC Sabathia	Yankees	-158	9

[danshan11]

we are far from each other today, should be interesting!

[danshan11]

I really have no idea why they moved this thread, these are not picks, I repeat these are not picks! LOL

[danshan11]

another mistake
Anibal Sanchez -102

[danshan11]

looking pretty good so far lets see what happens when Pinny comes out, I jumped all over that OVER 7.5 on the Phillies at +100 its still a good buy at -110

[Waterstpub87]

looking pretty good so far lets see what happens when Pinny comes out, I jumped all over that OVER 7.5 on the Phillies at +100 its still a good buy at -110

You have the wind blowing in from left at 22 mph right? Taillon having a great year, Arrieta was sharp last time.

[danshan11]

I cant pick a winner nobody can, I bet the line not the game.

[danshan11]

I win by beating the line not by betting on winners, 99.99% of the factors like wind and blah blah are in the line so factoring them against the line is not correct

[danshan11]

here we go with some minor adjustments back to good I hope

Date	Opp Starter	Starter	Team	My Line	Total
4/20	Ivan Nova	Ben Lively	Phillies	-111	8.5
4/20	Noah Syndergaard	Sean Newcomb	Braves	129	8.5
4/20	Trevor Richards	Jhoulys Chacin	Brewers	-192	7.5
4/20	Brandon Finnegan	Michael Wacha	Cardinals	-165	9
4/20	Kyle Hendricks	Jon Gray	Rockies	-101	10
4/20	Max Scherzer	Clayton Kershaw	Dodgers	-141	6.5
4/20	Marco Estrada	Sonny Gray	Yankees	-185	9
4/20	Trevor Bauer	Dylan Bundy	Orioles	140	8
4/20	Jake Junis	Daniel Norris	Tigers	-120	9.5
4/20	Lance Lynn	Chris Archer	Rays	-133	8
4/20	Drew Pomeranz	Kendall Graveman	Athletics	130	9
4/20	Jason Hammel	Michael Fulmer	Tigers	-113	8.5

[danshan11]

no one else is posting or commenting today?

[IGotKidsToFeed]

I've been checking this thread daily, thank you both for posting your work!

[danshan11]

I've been checking this thread daily, thank you both for posting your work!

what do you think of my projections? Really appreciate any feedback or suggestions or any tendency you might notice.

[IGotKidsToFeed]

I am intrigued. I'm not much of a "quant," but I was just wondering how much weight you put into more recent statistics/results as opposed to stats from previous seasons.

[danshan11]

I use the best available ultimately I would want to use only the most recent results but you always need enough data to create a good number!

[danshan11]

4/21	Homer Bailey	Carlos Martinez	Cardinals	-215	8.5
4/21	Steven Brault	Aaron Nola	Phillies	-150	7.5
4/21	Jose Urena	Brent Suter	Brewers	-211	8.5
4/21	Jacob deGrom	Julio Teheran	Braves	130	8
4/21	Yu Darvish	Tyler Anderson	Rockies	115	9
4/21	Clayton Richard	Zack Godley	Diamondbacks	-161	8
4/21	Stephen Strasburg	Hyun Jin Ryu	Dodgers	102	7.5
4/21	Marcus Stroman	Jordan Montgomery	Yankees	-147	9
4/21	Danny Duffy	Mike Fiers	Tigers	117	8.5
4/21	Mike Clevinger	Chris Tillman	Orioles	133	9.5
4/21	Kyle Gibson	Blake Snell	Rays	-107	8
4/21	James Paxton	Bartolo Colon	Rangers	151	8.5
4/21	Chris Sale	Sean Manaea	Athletics	120	7
4/21	Derek Holland	Garrett Richards	Angels	-300	9

[danshan11]

I just need a few more solid starts for these starters and my numbers should tighten up to be very close

[danshan11]

You have the wind blowing in from left at 22 mph right? Taillon having a great year, Arrieta was sharp last time.

I lost the game and the line went the other way, you were right!!!!!!!! Things like that help me grow, thank you so much!

[Waterstpub87]

I lost the game and the line went the other way, you were right!!!!!!!! Things like that help me grow, thank you so much!

Not a Problem. I use this site for baseball weather data.

http://dailybaseballdata.com/cgi-bin/weather.pl

This is the methodology I use for temperature and weather. it is kind of old, but it is the most thorough thing that I have found.

https://www.fangraphs.com/tht/home-run-park-factor-a-new-approach/

[danshan11]

you gonna post up lines today? you notice anything in my lines you think I could do to improve?

[Waterstpub87]

nyy	135.2941
stl	-281.679
bal	247.2222
phi	-303.226
tb	-100.401
chw	646.2687
mil	-114.592
atl	140.9639
tex	149.3766
col	184.9003
ari	-133.645
oak	169.5418
laa	-117.391
lad	168.096

tornyy	7.5
cinstl	8
clebal	9
pitphi	8
mintb	8
houchw	9.5
miamil	8
nymatl	8
seatex	9
chccol	9
sdari	7
bosoak	7.5
sflaa	9.5
waslad	7

[danshan11]

Anaheim -115?
you sure about those numbers, I am getting nervous now, you got the Dodgers +170?????

[danshan11]

how come nobody else joins in? I see tons of people looking at the thread but nobody chiming in, come on in fellas comments are free!

[Waterstpub87]

Yes. First month or so of the season I tend to get much more off numbers.

Washington already moving up.

[danshan11]

look at the Angels going crazy! I got them full bet at -182

[danshan11]

I bet them again at -225 I got a few more hops on them!

https://imgur.com/a/pBap1tR

[danshan11]

I got them again when they dipped when BM came out at -205, great bet hope the value is there at the end!

[danshan11]

Holland is way over rated this season, sure the numbers from this season say -185 or so on this game but the line should be closer to -210 -220 at the end even though I think it will dip back down to -190ish now that I look closer, I should have waited to bet but I might just put more in on them if it dips back to -180ish, I hope it stays up Angels are hot and Holland is not the line might stay up there but I doubt it!

[danshan11]

4/22	Trevor Williams	Nick Pivetta	Phillies	-102	8
4/22	Zack Wheeler	Mike Foltynewicz	Braves	121	8.5
4/22	Caleb Smith	Junior Guerra	Brewers	-220	9
4/22	Jose Quintana	German Marquez	Rockies	-105	10.5
4/22	Joey Lucchesi	Patrick Corbin	Diamondbacks	-146	8.5
4/22	Jeremy Hellickson	Alex Wood	Dodgers	-155	8.5
4/22	Jaime Garcia	Luis Severino	Yankees	-182	8.5
4/22	Corey Kluber	Andrew Cashner	Orioles	186	7
4/22	Eric Skoglund	Francisco Liriano	Tigers	-116	9
4/22	David Price	Daniel Mengden	Athletics	136	8.5

[Waterstpub87]

bal	309.8361
nyy	-194.118
atl	117.8649
phi	-130.415
chw	464.9718
col	128.3105
oak	262.3188
lad	-173.973

clebal	8
tornyy	8
nymatl	8
pitphi	8
houchw	8
chccol	8
bosoak	9.5
waslad	7

I don't bet on starters who haven't faced less than 100 batters of both hands, hence the light card.

[danshan11]

we are way apart again on most, you betting already or just setting lines getting ready once the season gets rolling?

[Waterstpub87]

Already betting. Doing fine.

[danshan11]

I am doing horriblely average had a couple reallly bad games that messed up my clv badly but I have adjusted since


42-42 W-L avg line 51.16%
Units -1.4
CLV .61%
and I think I will get way sharper on CLV as soon as I get a few more games so my numbers get way closer to the closing line

[Waterstpub87]

My hold as of Tuesday was around 0%, but that is still better than the normal hold. Up in sides, down in totals. Most profit has come from 1st 5s and props, mostly props as I won 10 total based props in a row.