post my lines up for the MLB BEFORE lines come out

Collapse
X
 
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts
  • danshan11
    SBR MVP
    • 07-08-17
    • 4101

    #1
    post my lines up for the MLB BEFORE lines come out
    I am going to post up my guesses of what the closing lines will be for MLB Before they come out from BOL

    I will post tomorrow's now so you can see what I am talking about even though they came out already on BOL

    Date Starter Team My Line
    4/11 AJ Cole Nationals -121
    4/11 German Marquez Rockies -185
    4/11 Johnny Cueto Giants 105
    4/11 Nick Pivetta Phillies 104
    4/11 Jon Lester Cubs -206
    4/11 Danny Duffy Royals 109
    4/11 Carlos Carrasco Indians -190
    4/11 Kevin Gausman Orioles -118
    4/11 David Price Red Sox -117
    4/11 Alex Wood Dodgers -179
    please I am doing this to get feedback if anyone sees anything or wants to post theirs up too that would be great. Any and all comments are wanted and truly appreciated! Thanks in advance!
  • danshan11
    SBR MVP
    • 07-08-17
    • 4101

    #2
    PS you wont hurt my feelings any and all comments suggestions are welcome
    Comment
    • danshan11
      SBR MVP
      • 07-08-17
      • 4101

      #3
      4/12 Kyle Hendricks Cubs -186
      4/12 Sal Romano Reds 111
      4/12 Trevor Bauer Indians -163
      4/12 Rick Porcello Red Sox 137
      4/12 Jose Berrios Twins -172
      lots of teams undecided still for the starters for tomorrow that is why the list is so limited right now
      Comment
      • KVB
        SBR Aristocracy
        • 05-29-14
        • 74817

        #4
        Good Luck danshan, when I have time, I'll compare to the openers as well.

        Comment
        • danshan11
          SBR MVP
          • 07-08-17
          • 4101

          #5
          thanks
          Comment
          • danshan11
            SBR MVP
            • 07-08-17
            • 4101

            #6
            Originally posted by KVB
            Good Luck danshan, when I have time, I'll compare to the openers as well.

            just wanted to clarify these are not picks, these are my projected lines, I am releasing my projected lines BEFORE BOL which is the first book to come out. Basically I am trying to get feedback here on what people think of my projected lines! Thanks again and any feedback is welcomed
            Comment
            • danshan11
              SBR MVP
              • 07-08-17
              • 4101

              #7
              4/13 Yu Darvish Cubs -215
              4/13 Tyler Mahle Reds 120
              4/13 Tanner Roark Nationals -144
              4/13 Steven Matz Mets -112
              4/13 Dillon Peters Marlins 125
              4/13 Tyson Ross Padres -139
              4/13 Kenta Maeda Dodgers -126
              4/13 Mike Clevinger Indians -127
              4/13 Eduardo Rodriguez Red Sox -187
              4/13 Gerrit Cole Astros -195
              4/13 Jason Hammel Royals -102
              4/13 Mike Leake Mariners -114
              4/13 Jake Faria Rays 104
              Comment
              • danshan11
                SBR MVP
                • 07-08-17
                • 4101

                #8
                4/14 Max Scherzer Nationals -192
                4/14 Jose Quintana Cubs -155
                4/14 Matt Harvey Mets -103
                4/14 Clayton Richard Padres -127
                4/14 Rich Hill Dodgers -153
                4/14 Hector Velazquez Red Sox -105
                4/14 Lance Lynn Twins -204
                4/14 Corey Kluber Indians -193
                4/14 Marco Gonzales Mariners -115
                4/14 Chris Archer Rays -136
                Comment
                • deltgen
                  SBR Wise Guy
                  • 12-31-10
                  • 865

                  #9
                  Pretty impressive here. I consider myself pretty astute about baseball, but I couldn't get the numbers anywhere close like you are doing. We're only a few weeks into the season, but are you making wagers based on significant differences between your projections and your book's opening line? If so, is it profitable?
                  Comment
                  • danshan11
                    SBR MVP
                    • 07-08-17
                    • 4101

                    #10
                    hey thanks for the compliment, I average about 3% off my guess win% to the closing line % since the season began. Since this seems consistent what I do is I bet anything that is more than 3% off and hope that it moves in my direction, which in general it does! I am doing ok right now but I am expecting it to be a long term winner for the season! Thanks again any and all questions or comments appreciated!
                    Comment
                    • danshan11
                      SBR MVP
                      • 07-08-17
                      • 4101

                      #11
                      4/17 Trevor Williams Pirates -116
                      4/17 Zack Wheeler Mets 105
                      4/17 Mike Foltynewicz Braves -128
                      4/17 Junior Guerra Brewers -148
                      4/17 Jon Lester Cubs -121
                      4/17 Patrick Corbin Diamondbacks -167
                      4/17 Bryan Mitchell Padres 176
                      4/17 Francisco Liriano Tigers -115
                      4/17 JA Happ Blue Jays -178
                      4/17 Jake Odorizzi Twins 148
                      Comment
                      • danshan11
                        SBR MVP
                        • 07-08-17
                        • 4101

                        #12
                        sorry forgot the totals
                        4/17 Trevor Williams Pirates -116 8.5
                        4/17 Zack Wheeler Mets 105 8
                        4/17 Mike Foltynewicz Braves -128 8
                        4/17 Junior Guerra Brewers -148 10
                        4/17 Jon Lester Cubs -121 8.5
                        4/17 Patrick Corbin Diamondbacks -167 8
                        4/17 Bryan Mitchell Padres 176 8
                        4/17 Francisco Liriano Tigers -115 9.5
                        4/17 JA Happ Blue Jays -178 8.5
                        4/17 Jake Odorizzi Twins 148 7
                        Comment
                        • Waterstpub87
                          SBR MVP
                          • 09-09-09
                          • 4102

                          #13
                          NYY -517.284
                          DET 139.2344
                          PIT -110.526
                          TOR -114.133
                          MIN 205.8104
                          NYM 104.0816
                          ATL -127.79
                          MIL 113.2196
                          CHC -104.082
                          ARI 107.9002
                          SEA 210.559
                          Some similar lines. This is what I get for home team for 4/17
                          Comment
                          • danshan11
                            SBR MVP
                            • 07-08-17
                            • 4101

                            #14
                            thanks we have some very close and some far apart, I cant wait to see where they close! thanks for joining in
                            Comment
                            • Waterstpub87
                              SBR MVP
                              • 09-09-09
                              • 4102

                              #15
                              If I remember will try to post more often.
                              Comment
                              • danshan11
                                SBR MVP
                                • 07-08-17
                                • 4101

                                #16
                                Originally posted by Waterstpub87
                                NYY -517.284
                                DET 139.2344
                                PIT -110.526
                                TOR -114.133
                                MIN 205.8104
                                NYM 104.0816
                                ATL -127.79
                                MIL 113.2196
                                CHC -104.082
                                ARI 107.9002
                                SEA 210.559
                                Some similar lines. This is what I get for home team for 4/17
                                what do you have for totals?
                                Comment
                                • Waterstpub87
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 09-09-09
                                  • 4102

                                  #17
                                  Originally posted by danshan11
                                  what do you have for totals?
                                  My totals have been running a bit high, I think they might have stopped juicing the ball because HR/FB rate is way down. But:

                                  Mia/NYY 9.5
                                  Bal/Det 9
                                  Col Pit 8.5
                                  KC TOR 9
                                  CLE/MIN 9
                                  WAS/NYM 7
                                  Phi/ATL 7.5
                                  CIn/MIL 8
                                  STL/CHC 8
                                  SF/ARi 10
                                  Hou/SEA 8.5
                                  LAD/SD 9

                                  Looking at the weather, it appears to have shifted for several games. Cle/Min went from out to In since last night
                                  Comment
                                  • KVB
                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                    • 05-29-14
                                    • 74817

                                    #18
                                    Good job guys. I've been a little behind each day but I'll try to contribute.

                                    My Totals run high too, it seems in most sports. I predict a lot Overs, not necessarily correctly, but the market tends to be lower overall on my best Totals.
                                    Comment
                                    • KVB
                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                      • 05-29-14
                                      • 74817

                                      #19
                                      Originally posted by danshan11
                                      just wanted to clarify these are not picks, these are my projected lines, I am releasing my projected lines BEFORE BOL which is the first book to come out. Basically I am trying to get feedback here on what people think of my projected lines! Thanks again and any feedback is welcomed
                                      I did the same thing for the NFL for a few weeks. I was just posting the forecasts, not picks. I also laid down the rules for when a long term play was triggered.
                                      Getting that line to move towards your numbers will show you profit in MLB for sure. Those markets have been pretty reliable with their closing lines.
                                      Comment
                                      • danshan11
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 07-08-17
                                        • 4101

                                        #20
                                        BOL came out I am looking sharp right now but by closing I will look as sharp as a NERF football, JK, they will be close!
                                        Comment
                                        • danshan11
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 07-08-17
                                          • 4101

                                          #21
                                          4/18 Chad Kuhl Pirates -107
                                          4/18 Zach Davies Brewers -168 9
                                          4/18 Jon Lester Cubs -114 8
                                          4/18 Steven Matz Mets 103 8
                                          4/18 Brandon McCarthy Braves 103 8.5
                                          4/18 Robbie Ray Diamondbacks -229 8
                                          4/18 Jake Faria Rays -153 9
                                          4/18 Andrew Triggs Athletics -229 8.5
                                          4/18 Aaron Sanchez Blue Jays -188 8.5
                                          4/18 Matthew Boyd Tigers 155 9
                                          4/18 Jose Berrios Twins -107 8
                                          4/18 Tyler Skaggs Angels -116 9
                                          4/18 Mike Leake Mariners 144 8.5
                                          made some major changes to my model to accomodate my way off games for rangers, reds, royals and astros, so today might be perfect or super ugly!
                                          Comment
                                          • Waterstpub87
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 09-09-09
                                            • 4102

                                            #22
                                            Im surprised you get the rays as such heavy favorites against Hamels. I have it closer to a pick.
                                            Comment
                                            • danshan11
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 07-08-17
                                              • 4101

                                              #23
                                              Originally posted by Waterstpub87
                                              Im surprised you get the rays as such heavy favorites against Hamels. I have it closer to a pick.

                                              you may be absolutely right on that one I made some algo changes to the Rangers and might have overcooked the books! We will see as soon as it comes out, I hope I am right LOL

                                              my own personal guest just looking at it myself I say Rays -130ish but the computer is juicing the opponents of the rangers a bit we shall see how that juicing plays out. I would not be surprised it opens at -130 and closes near -150
                                              Comment
                                              • danshan11
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 07-08-17
                                                • 4101

                                                #24
                                                I wrote the pirates wrong not sure why but -127 not -107
                                                Comment
                                                • danshan11
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 07-08-17
                                                  • 4101

                                                  #25
                                                  Blue Jays JA Happ NOT Sanchez -203
                                                  Stratton instead of Cueto -229
                                                  man SBR prob starters are way off, I should have paid attention to MLB probs LOL, live and learn!
                                                  Comment
                                                  • Waterstpub87
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 09-09-09
                                                    • 4102

                                                    #26
                                                    Originally posted by danshan11
                                                    Blue Jays JA Happ NOT Sanchez -203
                                                    Stratton instead of Cueto -229
                                                    man SBR prob starters are way off, I should have paid attention to MLB probs LOL, live and learn!
                                                    When I set up my sheet to run, I use the MLB.com probables for next day. But I set it up two days before, so tonight I will be running Thursday games, which SBR doesn't have up till Wednesday at 11 am
                                                    Comment
                                                    • danshan11
                                                      SBR MVP
                                                      • 07-08-17
                                                      • 4101

                                                      #27
                                                      Yeah I use MLB probs until today whenn I used sbr which are not correct not even close LOL, you gonna post up lines for tomorrow before they come out?
                                                      Comment
                                                      • Waterstpub87
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 09-09-09
                                                        • 4102

                                                        #28
                                                        Originally posted by danshan11
                                                        Yeah I use MLB probs until today whenn I used sbr which are not correct not even close LOL, you gonna post up lines for tomorrow before they come out?
                                                        Already came out, but the only plays I liked up front were bos 107 and Col 115. Otherwise, everything was under the 6% trigger that I select. I had to make some adjustments to my code, to decelerate the totals, so it should be running till 5pm or so. Will try tomorrow.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • danshan11
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 07-08-17
                                                          • 4101

                                                          #29
                                                          messed up on Berrios did not know it was neutral field
                                                          Comment
                                                          • Bsims
                                                            SBR Wise Guy
                                                            • 02-03-09
                                                            • 827

                                                            #30
                                                            Guys, it seems to me this discussion should be in the baseball pick forum.

                                                            Baseball Betting

                                                            (288 Viewing)
                                                            MLB handicapping, baseball betting, picks, matchups and the latests game results in the MLB forum

                                                            Handicapper Think Tank

                                                            (18 Viewing)
                                                            Handicapping theories, betting systems, tips, tricks, odds and math
                                                            Comment
                                                            • danshan11
                                                              SBR MVP
                                                              • 07-08-17
                                                              • 4101

                                                              #31
                                                              this is theory, system, odds and math. I think it belongs here but I if admin wants to move or kill it that is fine too!
                                                              Comment
                                                              • Waterstpub87
                                                                SBR MVP
                                                                • 09-09-09
                                                                • 4102

                                                                #32
                                                                I don't see why this should be moved. This is a rarely posted in sub forum as is.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • Bsims
                                                                  SBR Wise Guy
                                                                  • 02-03-09
                                                                  • 827

                                                                  #33
                                                                  Originally posted by danshan11
                                                                  this is theory, system, odds and math. I think it belongs here but I if admin wants to move or kill it that is fine too!
                                                                  I would be interested in the theory behind your system if there is a methodology. In your first post you mentioned that these were guesses and an interest in seeing other peoples guesses. Waterstpub87 is correct that this sub-forum is rarely used, which is unfortunate. I think you would get more of the response you desire in the Baseball Betting sub-forum. Just a thought.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • danshan11
                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                    • 07-08-17
                                                                    • 4101

                                                                    #34
                                                                    I just plug the game into my super duper computer spreadsheet and read the lines she pops out, my over unders are deadly. I really think my over unders are money. if I guess 9 and it opens at 8 it almost every time moves to 8.5. MY over under CLV is nearly double my moneyline CLV
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • danshan11
                                                                      SBR MVP
                                                                      • 07-08-17
                                                                      • 4101

                                                                      #35
                                                                      follow my over unders that post today aand seee where they close tomorrow, you will be shocked at how well I do on OU's against the line! Now as far as winning goes, I mean we all know winning does not prove anything but my CLV on over unders is a very wealthy spot SO FAR of course that could change tomorrow
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      SBR Contests
                                                                      Collapse
                                                                      Top-Rated US Sportsbooks
                                                                      Collapse
                                                                      Working...