Mr. Crumbs Leans for Monday 6/22/09

[cocknocker]

For today's action, I will be going with these two picks. I have thoroughly researched them and hopefully the teams will perform as well as they were handicapped to perform. On to brass taxes:

Rockies+110
Cubs/Braves under 8



Starting pitcher WHIP last 3 games

COL 1.05
LAA 1.29

Advantage Rockies

Power ranking

COL-123
LAA+123

Line

COL+116
LAA-124

Advantage Rockies. With a meager 25% of bettors on their side, the Rockies drove the line down from Angels-124 to Angels-120. That's one hell of a reverse line movement against the public. According to the power rankings, the Rockies should be favored (-123)

Batting average last 3 games

COL .340
LAA .253

Advantage Rockies HEAVY

Slugging% last 3 games

COL .629 (WOW!)
LAA .400

Advantage Rockies HEAVY

Bullpen WHIP last 3 games

COL 1.129
LAA 1.690

Advantage Rockies

My pick: Rockies+110

**************************************** ******

Starters WHIP last 3 games

CUB 1.32
ATL 0.55 (WOW!)

Advantage UNDER


Opening line

Cubs/Braves over/under 9 (6/21 8:41pm Golden Nugget, Las Vegas)

Current line

Cubs/Braves over/under 8

Advantage UNDER as with 76% of bettors on the over, the line fell a full digit, surpassing 8.5 along the way and going down to 8 defying the action on the over. This is a HUGE RLM.

Batting average last 3 games

CUB .271
ATL .294

Advantage UNDER as neither team is above .300, so obviously the combined averages will not be .300 or more

Slugging% last 3 games

CUB .483
ATL .392

Advantage PUSH. The combined slugging% is .437 which is good, but tempered somewhat by the WHIP of the pitchers. I estimate a combined slugging% average of .275 with one of the pitchers having a WHIP below 1.00 (Vazquez)

Bullpen WHIP last 3 games

CUB 1.277
ATL 0.492

Advantage UNDER as the combined bullpens are giving up less than 1.5 runs. Vazquez averages about 7 innings and Dempster is about the same. So the good form of the bullpens is key in this game and may help tp produce the under that I am looking for.

My pick: Cubs/Braves under 8

[jellobiafra]

I'm going with the double dog play today, hoping at least one hits: SFG +134 and STL +101


OAK is not hitting lefties well and Sanchez is a nasty one. I think the price is nice for the better team that's been playing well with a matchup problem on the mound for the opposition. I also love STL tonight with those hot bats going against Tim Redding. Better pitcher, better team, hotter lineup, and plus money.... I'll take it every time.

I looked at that under CK but Vazquez has a sketchy history vs CHC. You're probably still gonna be alright but something about it told me to stay away. I also played a small parlay of LAA and ATL for just under a half unit that pays just over a whole unit. This was just for giggles mostly...and to leave my account on an even figure going into the games. Those are two fantastic reasons to place a wager, I know. I am a true professional if you hadn't figured that out by now.

Good luck all!

[pho3nix32]

i've been waiting for your plays Peep's champ!

[pho3nix32]

helton, tulowitzki will bring us cash tomorrow ck!!!

[cocknocker]

Too easy to take the Red Birds in that game, jello. Somethin' is up. I wanted to play it, but there was a certain systematical thing that stopped me from pressing the button on the Birds so I went the other way like I was supposed to and played the Mets even with Beltran out.

The A's are due to clobber the G-Men anyway and Sanchez has a horrid WHIP over his last 3 games (2.14). The G-Men dismantled them in the series over across the Bay. Now it's the A's turn. Keep taking them in this series and you will win a unit. Another good idea is to take them on the series price (-135) which is a steal for what's gonna happen to the G-Men over the week.

[oda11]

Whoa, the Cubs/Braves under has dropped to 7.5 on my book!

[jellobiafra]

Well, by the time I post on these boards my picks are booked. I don't like to be influenced by any static as I'm sure you understand.

I see what you are saying with Sanchez, but I actually really like him in this matchup. He's faced the A's once in his career - almost a year ago to the day in OAK. He shut them down in 7 innings, 4 hits and 1 ER with 6k's. OAK is hitting .207 in their last 10 vs LHP.... avg just over 2.5 runs a game vs LHP last 10. I'm really expecting Sanchez to dominate tonight. I know this is your neck of the woods so it makes me a little nervous to see you strongly on the other side (and the line is not moving in my favor either, fvck) but like I said, it's booked and there isn't anything I could do about it now.... even if I wanted to. Which I don't.

Good luck.

[solobass]

jaw reconstruction surgery......be back in a week or so. few problems from my army days. talk to you all in about a week or so. well maybe not talk but type.

best of luck!

[RoagBettor]

jaw reconstruction surgery......be back in a week or so. few problems from my army days. talk to you all in about a week or so. well maybe not talk but type.

best of luck!

Good luck and God Bless solo!

[chaseman]

Good luck, solo, hope everything goes alright. I had surgery on my broken foot last week, so I've been laid up readin the boards as well...

[thegenix]

jaw reconstruction surgery......be back in a week or so. few problems from my army days. talk to you all in about a week or so. well maybe not talk but type.

best of luck!

good luck solo!

[ragiche]

Booked plays for today.I'm going out to do some work with my boss,i don't know what time we will be finish so i booked it early.

Oak RL (3x) My pick.

Col ML (3x) Tailing CK.

Atl RL (3x) My pick.

Nym ML (3x) My pick with CK's opinion.

Cubs/Atl UNDER 7.5 (3x) Tailing CK.

Stl/Nym OVER 9 (3x) My pick.

GL guys.

[ragiche]

Good Luck to you solo.And get well soon after the reconstruction.

[TheLemonDropKid]

Awesome job yesterday CK!! You stared adversity (and the haters) in the eyes, made adjustments, and came out on top yet again!!

On another note....you mentioned Karayilan's success with soccer. I see that there are 2 games today at 2:45pm EST. Do you know when he usually posts his picks? Is it closer to game time or is there plenty of notice?

Solo....good luck my friend. I hope you have a quick and successful recovery.

[cocknocker]

Good luck, solo. We'll hear from you in a couple o days! Take care homes

[djpremier36]

I love the two picks, here's what I got....

STL/NYM under 9.5...under is 9-3 in their last 12 games in NY

ATL/CHC under 4 1st 5...Would only play 8.5 for the whole game

COL +104...Gonna ride with the Rockies and the smart $ here

SF +143...Jello summed it up perfectly!

[socrates01]

For today's action, I will be going with these two picks. I have thoroughly researched them and hopefully the teams will perform as well as they were handicapped to perform. On to brass taxes:

Rockies+110
Cubs/Braves under 8



Starting pitcher WHIP last 3 games

COL 1.05
LAA 1.29

Advantage Rockies

Power ranking

COL-123
LAA+123

Line

COL+116
LAA-124

Advantage Rockies. With a meager 25% of bettors on their side, the Rockies drove the line down from Angels-124 to Angels-120. That's one hell of a reverse line movement against the public. According to the power rankings, the Rockies should be favored (-123)

Batting average last 3 games

COL .340
LAA .253

Advantage Rockies HEAVY

Slugging% last 3 games

COL .629 (WOW!)
LAA .400

Advantage Rockies HEAVY

Bullpen WHIP last 3 games

COL 1.129
LAA 1.690

Advantage Rockies

My pick: Rockies+110

**************************************** ******

Starters WHIP last 3 games

CUB 1.32
ATL 0.55 (WOW!)

Advantage UNDER


Opening line

Cubs/Braves over/under 9 (6/21 8:41pm Golden Nugget, Las Vegas)

Current line

Cubs/Braves over/under 8

Advantage UNDER as with 76% of bettors on the over, the line fell a full digit, surpassing 8.5 along the way and going down to 8 defying the action on the over. This is a HUGE RLM.

Batting average last 3 games

CUB .271
ATL .294

Advantage UNDER as neither team is above .300, so obviously the combined averages will not be .300 or more

Slugging% last 3 games

CUB .483
ATL .392

Advantage PUSH. The combined slugging% is .437 which is good, but tempered somewhat by the WHIP of the pitchers. I estimate a combined slugging% average of .275 with one of the pitchers having a WHIP below 1.00 (Vazquez)

Bullpen WHIP last 3 games

CUB 1.277
ATL 0.492

Advantage UNDER as the combined bullpens are giving up less than 1.5 runs. Vazquez averages about 7 innings and Dempster is about the same. So the good form of the bullpens is key in this game and may help tp produce the under that I am looking for.

My pick: Cubs/Braves under 8

Yo CK, I'm following you over from the WNBA thread Playboy. Are you considering both these plays to be HEAVY? I know that's how you categorize your strongest plays with WNBA and I know shit about mlb.Thanks!

[xmrblueduckyx]

Ck what do you think about the cubbies tonight?
Just came off a nice sweep at home with 3 walk off victories. So they have the momentum.
ATL has had trouble scoring some runs of late, ATL 8-3 in last 12 games, and lost a back breaking game to Rsox yesterday so smash their spirits. Dempster at nice + money.

[cocknocker]

Ck what do you think about the cubbies tonight?
Just came off a nice sweep at home with 3 walk off victories. So they have the momentum.
ATL has had trouble scoring some runs of late, ATL 8-3 in last 12 games, and lost a back breaking game to Rsox yesterday so smash their spirits. Dempster at nice + money.

I like the under in that game....

[sportsguy04]

Cardinals ML
Cardinals ML 1st 5 innings.

[cocknocker]

F*ck you! Pay me play Colorado-1.5 +170 RRL

[showtime2000]

Here we goooooo.........

Colorado +104
CHi/Atl under 7.5





GLA

[Panekkkk]

Any leans for Tuesday? I'm really like the Pirates at -114. Snell finally starting to get back on the horse and Cleveland is a terrible road team, especially in Interleague play ... and with Huff on the mound ... All stats are in favour of the Pirates, who are 17-12 at home.

The only thing keeping me from laying some heavy dough is that Sizemore is expected back Tuesday which might spark some Cleveland confidence.

Thoughts?

[cocknocker]

Yeah Panekkkk,

For Tuesday, I like the

Mariners-135 or more HEAVY
Braves-108 HEAVY
Nats+115 or more
Reds+137

[peterpan19]

3 hits for the cubs and no score

[Panekkkk]

Yeah Panekkkk,

For Tuesday, I like the

Mariners-135 or more
Braves-108 HEAVY
Nats+115 or more
Reds+137

Like the Mariners and Braves. Already laid some money on Boston. I'd love to give the Nats the benefit of the doubt with Lannan on the mound but Penny is starting to round out and Nationals just can't seem to win game 1 of a series this year.

[Panekkkk]

And just like that Mets are up 2-0 ... Remind me to never back Wellemeyer again.

[THROWitBACK]

rockies +110
rockies under 9
oakland -150

parlay risking 27.00 to win 190.00

[peterpan19]

4 hits...no runs

[Dexter]

no gambling for me tonight! tried hittin ck up for somethin heavy - not today he tells me.

so i stay disciplined and take the night off.

good luck tonight fellas...

[Dexter]

And just like that Mets are up 2-0 ... Remind me to never back Wellemeyer again.

wellemeyer is trash....i have him on my fantasy team, and i couldnt even play him tonight vs a depleted mets lineup - and im in a super large 16 team league

FYI:

********John Smoltz to pitch Thur 6/25**********

http://www.rototimes.com/mlb/probables.php

[Dexter]

ck - what made you lay off of cahill? that was my only lean, but couldnt lay -150 with oakland and not be getting +1.5

**edit - i see your text that you did play oak?

[cocknocker]

ck - what made you lay off of cahill? that was my only lean, but couldnt lay -150 with oakland and not be getting +1.5

I didn't lay off of Cahill. I played both of the JM plays, but I played that one as a -1.5(Oakland). You know I don't lay -150 without getting points in return for it. I play the plays I just don't speak on them because I filter them sometimes.

[Dexter]

I didn't lay off of Cahill. I played both of the JM plays, but I played that one as a -1.5(Oakland). You know I don't lay -150 without getting points in return for it. I play the plays I just don't speak on them because I filter them sometimes.

ahh - i didnt know it was JM. im not playing the baseball. wanna watch for a season, and if it works out well - i'll come back with it in 2010.

hoops i played in 09, and cant wait for 2010....

[Dexter]

what happened to the JM thread??