2018 SEASON LONG THREAD brought to you by A4K

[A4K]

4/1/2018

Each play is risking ONE unit regardless of whether the selection is a dog or chalk.

ALL LINES FROM 5DIMES!!!

This is purely a mechanical system that I am screwing around with and is not based on match-ups or handicapping. Tail at your own risk.

Twins @ Orioles -115
Red Sox -110 @ Rays
Cubs -205 @ Marlins
Nationals @ Reds +125
Pirates @ Tigers -112 1st game 2day
Astros -154 @ Rangers
Angels -126 @ As
Giants +167 @ Dodgers
Indians @ Mariners +115
Cardinals -147 @ Mets
Yankees @ Blue Jays -110

Record 0 - 0
Favorites: 0 - 0
Dogs: 0 - 0

Total Units:

[hotcross]

good luck bruddah

[A4K]

good luck bruddah

Thanks, mate! Need to do something to make the looong MLB season a little more interesting!

[A4K]

Twins @ Orioles -115 LOSS
Red Sox -110 @ Rays WIN
Cubs -205 @ Marlins LOSS
Nationals @ Reds +125 LOSS
Pirates @ Tigers -112 1st game 2day LOSS
Astros -154 @ Rangers WIN
Angels -126 @ As WIN
Giants +167 @ Dodgers LOSS
Indians @ Mariners +115 WIN
Cardinals -147 @ Mets WIN
Yankees @ Blue Jays -110 WIN

Record 6 - 5

Favorites 5 - 3
Dogs 1 - 2

Units: +0.09

It's a start folks! LOL

[A4K]

4/2/2018

All plays are risking ONE unit regardless of whether or not they are a favorite or a dog.

Twins @ Pirates -126
Royals @ Tigers -114
Cardinals +104 @ Brewers
Cubs @ Reds +135
Orioles +183 @ Astros
White Sox @ Blue Jays -155
Red Sox @ Marlins +125
Phillies @ Mets -112
Nationals -120 @ Braves
Dodgers -114 @ Diamondbacks
Rangers @ A's -142
Indians @ Angels +104
Rockies @ Padres -106

Season Record 6 - 5

Favorites 5 - 3
Dogs 1 - 2

Units: +0.09

[A4K]

4/2/2018
Twins @ Pirates -126 WINNER
Royals @ Tigers -114 WINNER
Cardinals +104 @ Brewers WINNER
Cubs @ Reds +135 WINNER
Orioles +183 @ Astros LOSER
White Sox @ Blue Jays -155 WINNER
Red Sox @ Marlins +125 LOSER
Phillies @ Mets -112 PPD
Nationals -120 @ Braves WINNER
Dodgers -114 @ Diamondbacks LOSER (JANSEN BLOWS THE SAVE WITH 2 OUTS IN THE 9TH )
Rangers @ A's -142 WINNER
Indians @ Angels +104 LOSER
Rockies @ Padres -106 LOSER

Day Record 7 - 5


Season Record 13 - 10

Favorites 10 - 5
Dogs 3 - 5

Units: +1.35

[A4K]

4/3/2018

All plays are risking ONE unit regardless of whether it is a dog or favorite.

Twins @ Pirates -126
Royals @ Tigers -114
Cardinals +104 @ Brewers
Cubs @ Reds +135
Orioles +183 @ Astros
White Sox @ Blue Jays -155
Red Sox @ Marlins +125
Phillies @ Mets -112
Nationals -120 @ Braves
Dodgers -114 @ Diamondbacks
Rangers @ A's -142
Indians @ Angels +104
Rockies @ Padres -106

Season Record 6 - 5

Favorites 5 - 3
Dogs 1 - 2

Units: +0.09

[A4K]

Side note:

I looked back and if I had bet to win 1 unit on all favorites and risked 1 unit on all dogs, I would have made the following:

4/1 Did NOT track in this thread 3.15 units
4/2 -17 units
4/3 2.39 units

Starting tomorrow, I may need to switch to risking ONE unit on dogs and risking enough to win ONE unit on favorites. More risk but it looks like more reward.

[A4K]

Well, it looks like in my rush to post yesterday, I accidentally pasted in Monday's games. Here are the games, I actually had selected..

4/3/2018

Royals @ Tigers -111 LOSS
Rays +136 @ Yankees LOSS
Red Sox -240 @ Marlins WINNER
Cubs @ Reds +158 PPD
White Sox @ Blue Jays -155 WINNER
Phillies @ Mets -113 WINNER
Nationals -118 @ Braves LOSS
Cardinals +123 @ Brewers LOSS
Orioles +210 @ Astros LOSS
Dodgers -165 @ Diamondbacks LOSS
Indians @ Angels -134 WINNER
Rangers @ As -134 LOSS
Rockies -110 @ Padres LOSS

Day Record: 4 - 8


Season Record: 17 - 18
Favorites: 9 - 8
Dogs: 1 - 5

Units: -3.95

[A4K]

4/4


Changing things up 2day. Going to risk to WIN one unit on favorites and risk ONE unit on dogs.


Nationals -190 @ Braves
Rays @ Yankees -240
Royals @ Tigers -122
Phillies @ Mets -131
Orioles +167 @ Astros
Dodgers -125 @ Diamondbacks
Indians @ Angels +132
Twins @ Pirates -108
White Sox @ Blue Jays -180
Mariners @ Giants -126
Cardinals -111 @ Brewers
Rangers @ As -152
Rockies @ Padres +112

[A4K]

4/4


Changing things up 2day. Going to risk to WIN one unit on favorites and risk ONE unit on dogs.


Nationals -190 @ Braves LOSS
Rays @ Yankees -240 WINNER
Royals @ Tigers -122 PPD
Phillies @ Mets -131 WINNER
Orioles +167 @ Astros LOSS
Dodgers -125 @ Diamondbacks LOSS
Indians @ Angels +132 WINNER
Twins @ Pirates -108 LOSS
White Sox @ Blue Jays -180 LOSS
Mariners @ Giants -126 WINNER
Cardinals -111 @ Brewers WINNER
Rangers @ As -152 WINNER
Rockies @ Padres +112 LOSS

Day Record: 6 - 6
Favorites: 14 - 12
Dogs: 2 - 7

Units: -5.66

[A4K]

4/5/2018

Favorites risking enough to win ONE unit
Dogs risking ONE unit

Mets @ Nationals -148
Rays +225 @ Red Sox
Marlins +134 @ Phillies
Rangers +130 @ As
Rockies -110 @ Padres
Reds +132 @ Pirates

[A4K]

4/5/2018

Favorites risking enough to win ONE unit
Dogs risking ONE unit

Mets @ Nationals -148 LOSS
Rays +225 @ Red Sox LOSS, that one hurt
Marlins +134 @ Phillies LOSS
Rangers +130 @ As WINNER
Rockies -110 @ Padres WINNER
Reds +132 @ Pirates LOSS

Day Record: 2 - 4

Favorites: 15 - 13
Dogs: 3 - 10

Overall record: 18 - 13

Units: -7.84

[A4K]

4/6/2018

RISKING TO WIN ONE UNIT ON FAVES AND RISKING ONE UNIT ON DOGS.

Royals @ Indians -206
Reds @ Pirates +111
Blue Jays @ Rangers +112
As @ Angels -132

[A4K]

4/6/2018

RISKING TO WIN ONE UNIT ON FAVES AND RISKING ONE UNIT ON DOGS.

Royals @ Indians -206 WINNER
Reds @ Pirates +111 WINNER
Blue Jays @ Rangers +112 LOSS
As @ Angels -132 WINNER

Day Record: 3 - 1
Favorites: 17 - 13
Dogs: 4 - 11

Season To Date Units: -5.73

Refining this system a bit. Hopefully we can string together some winning sessions and get positive.

[A4K]

4/7/2018

Risking to WIN ONE UNIT on favorites and risking ONE UNIT on dogs. Top to bottom my strongest picks to my weakest.

As @ Angels -101
Cubs @ Brewers +139
Reds @ Pirates -126
Dodgers -122 @ Giants
Mariners +141 @ Twins
Mets +143 @ Nationals
Blue Jays @ Rangers +114
Royals @ Indians -215
Padres +240 @ Astros
Marlins +145 @ Phillies

[A4K]

4/7/2018

Risking to WIN ONE UNIT on favorites and risking ONE UNIT on dogs. Top to bottom my strongest picks to my weakest.

As @ Angels -101 LOSS, get within 1 run of the As and then Upton loses a ball in the lights and the As put them away
Cubs @ Brewers +139 LOSS, 1 out in the 9th with the lead the Brewers commit 2 errors and collapse.
Reds @ Pirates -126 LOSS, blow it in the 8th
Dodgers -122 @ Giants LOSS, take the lead in extras and give up a walk off 3 run dinger
Mariners +141 @ Twins WINNER
Mets +143 @ Nationals WINNER
Blue Jays @ Rangers +114 WINNER
Royals @ Indians -215 LOSS
Padres +240 @ Astros Dropped an infield fly ball to lose the game!!! Who the fuq does that?!
Marlins +145 @ Phillies LOSS

This day stung like no other. I lost games in the most bizarre of ways. Baseball.

Day Record: 3-7
Favorites: 17 - 17
Dogs: 7 - 14

Units: -10.14

May start filtering out favorites over a certain ML amount. I'm still tinkering.

[A4K]

4/8/2018

DOGS ONLY SUNDAY risking one unit on each

Cubs @ Brewers +114
Diamondbacks +137 @ Cardinals
Braves +125 @ Colorado
Dodgers @ Giants +180
Rays +185 @ Red Sox
Tigers +152 @ White Sox
Blue Jays @ Rangers +102
As +152 @ Angels

[A4K]

4/8/2018

DOGS ONLY SUNDAY risking one unit on each

Cubs @ Brewers +114 LOSS
Diamondbacks +137 @ Cardinals WINNER
Braves +125 @ Colorado WINNER
Dodgers @ Giants +180 LOSS, THAT HURT
Rays +185 @ Red Sox LOSS, 6TH RUN 8TH FOR THE SOX, THANKS TB!
Tigers +152 @ White Sox WINNER
Blue Jays @ Rangers +102 LOSS
As +152 @ Angels LOSS

Day Record 3 - 5, -.86 units

Favorites: 17 - 17
Dogs: 10 - 19

Overall Units: -11.00


Need to focus on dogs and cheap favorites. A lucky bounce here or there and today could have been profitable.

[hotcross]

Tampa didn't want to win the game. Gave up a 7-2 lead in the bottom of the 8th...to lose 7-8 score. We knew it was a "bullpen outing" today as they didn't start a true starting pitcher....but good grief. I had them for the first five innings only which won but they were trying to blow a 4-1 lead there as well....wouldn't get anybody warming up as the guy loaded the bases and struggled completely just to get anyone out.....but they were leaving him out there to finish the inning regardless.

Conclusion here is to not pick the awful teams. Pass if the favorite they are playing looks questionable on a given day. I'm saying this advice to myself also, we got all those games on the slate and the case can be made for the underdogs....but some of these teams are so bad, you're just better off not trusting them with any units risked. As the season goes along, most every team will get on hot streaks, that's about the only time to consider the teams like Tampa, Miami, Kansas City, Texas, Cincinnati (no particular order).

Sorry to clutter your thread but these are the same thoughts I'm saying to myself.

[A4K]

Tampa didn't want to win the game. Gave up a 7-2 lead in the bottom of the 8th...to lose 7-8 score. We knew it was a "bullpen outing" today as they didn't start a true starting pitcher....but good grief. I had them for the first five innings only which won but they were trying to blow a 4-1 lead there as well....wouldn't get anybody warming up as the guy loaded the bases and struggled completely just to get anyone out.....but they were leaving him out there to finish the inning regardless.

Conclusion here is to not pick the awful teams. Pass if the favorite they are playing looks questionable on a given day. I'm saying this advice to myself also, we got all those games on the slate and the case can be made for the underdogs....but some of these teams are so bad, you're just better off not trusting them with any units risked. As the season goes along, most every team will get on hot streaks, that's about the only time to consider the teams like Tampa, Miami, Kansas City, Texas, Cincinnati (no particular order).

Sorry to clutter your thread but these are the same thoughts I'm saying to myself.

You make solid points. Thank God baseball is a long season and I can refine it as we go. I'm going to take your advice and just rule out certain teams. Try to focus on dogs that are average to good.

[A4K]

4/9/2018

Risking to win 1 unit on faves and risking 1 unit on dogs

Pirates @ Cubs -154
Reds @ Phillies -125
Brewers +129 @ Cardinals
Padres @ Rockies -178
Diamondbacks -117 @ Giants
Astros @ Twins +154

[A4K]

4/9/2018

Risking to win 1 unit on faves and risking 1 unit on dogs

Pirates @ Cubs -154 PPD
Reds @ Phillies -125 WINNER
Brewers +129 @ Cardinals WINNER
Padres @ Rockies -178 LOSS
Diamondbacks -117 @ Giants WINNER
Astros @ Twins +154 LOSS

Day Record: 3 - 2
Favorites: 19 - 18
Dogs: 11 - 20

Total Units: -10.49, +.51 on the day


I debated that Rockies play over and over. Too much juice. Should have passed. Oh well.

[A4K]

4/10/2018

Risking to WIN 1 unit on favorites and risking 1 unit on dogs.

Pirates @ Cubs -145
Mariners -113 @ Royals
As @ Dodgers -121
Angels @ Rangers +125
Astros @ Twins +142

[A4K]

4/10/2018

Risking to WIN 1 unit on favorites and risking 1 unit on dogs.

Pirates @ Cubs -145 LOSS
Mariners -113 @ Royals WINNER
As @ Dodgers -121 WINNER
Angels @ Rangers +125 LOSS
Astros @ Twins +142 WINNER

Day Record: 3 - 2
Favorites: 21 - 19
Dogs: 12 - 21

Total Units: -9.52, +.97 on the day

[A4K]

4/11/2018

Risking 1 unit on dogs and risking to win 1 unit on favorites

Astros @ Twins +131
Padres +140 @ Rockies
Blue Jays +104 @ Orioles
Pirates +169 @ Cubs
Angels -107 @ Rangers

Liked 3 other games but the lines changed so much that the perceived value was eliminated.

[A4K]

4/11/2018

Risking 1 unit on dogs and risking to win 1 unit on favorites

Astros @ Twins +131 WINNER
Padres +140 @ Rockies LOSS
Blue Jays +104 @ Orioles LOSS
Pirates +169 @ Cubs LOSS
Angels -107 @ Rangers WINNER

Liked 3 other games but the lines changed so much that the perceived value was eliminated.

Day Record: 2 - 3

Favorites: 22 - 19
Dogs: 13 - 24

Total Units: -10.21, -.69 on the day

[A4K]

4/12/2018

Risking ONE unit on dogs and risking to WIN ONE unit on favorites.

Pirates +177 @ Cubs
Rockies +165 @ Nationals
Yankees @ Red Sox -107
Angels -135 @ Royals
Giants @ Padres +123

[A4K]

4/12/2018

Risking ONE unit on dogs and risking to WIN ONE unit on favorites.

Pirates +177 @ Cubs WINNER
Rockies +165 @ Nationals WINNER
Yankees @ Red Sox -107 WINNER
Angels -135 @ Royals WINNER
Giants @ Padres +123 LOSS

Finally a solid day. Need these dogs to keep barking.

Day Record: 4 - 1

Favorites: 24 - 19
Dogs: 15 - 25

Total Units: -5.79, +4.42 on the day

[TimTheLandlord]

Great job yesterday

[A4K]

Great job yesterday

Thanks, mate! (Australian voice)

[A4K]

4/13/2018

Risking to win ONE unit on favorites and risking ONE unit on dogs.

Rockies +159 @ Nationals
Blue Jays @ Indians -128
Angels @ Royals +136
Diamondbacks +125 @ Dodgers
A's @ +100 Mariners, like this play the most

[A4K]

4/13/2018

Risking to win ONE unit on favorites and risking ONE unit on dogs.

Rockies +159 @ Nationals WINNER
Blue Jays @ Indians -128 LOSS
Angels @ Royals +136 LOSS
Diamondbacks +125 @ Dodgers WINNER
A's @ +100 Mariners, like this play the most WINNER

Day Record: 3 - 2

Favorites: 24 - 20
Dogs: 18 - 26

Total Units: -4.23, +1.56 on the day

[A4K]

4/14/2018

Risking to WIN ONE unit on favorites and risking ONE unit on dogs.

Phillies +115 @ Rays
Angels @ Royals +152
Giants +102 @ Padres
Diamondbacks +155 @ Doyers
As @ Mariners -106

[A4K]

4/14/2018

Risking to WIN ONE unit on favorites and risking ONE unit on dogs.

Phillies +115 @ Rays WINNER
Angels @ Royals +152 LOSS
Giants +102 @ Padres LOSS
Diamondbacks +155 @ Doyers WINNER
As @ Mariners -106 WINNER

Day Record: 3 - 2, +1.7 on the day

Favorites: 25 - 20
Dogs: 20 - 28

Total Units: -2.53

I need to stop betting the Royals, lol.